MAVS 105, TIMBERWOLVES 111

[omahen]

I think Mavs have several burning questions to answer in the next short term period as we can assume they have a three years window to finalize a contending roster. Start of the new administration is certainly not encouraging. As Mavs have basically same roster for three years, there is really very little need for long term observations. We know what we have.

Defense

First of all it would be wise to admit that this roster is not a small move away from contending, especially not after Kidd entered the picture and the schemes he wants to play. I totally understand GM will not say this publicly, but I hope they have stopped fooling themselves. It would be also nice if they would stop disrespecting the fans. When fans were not satisfied with the offseason, they were dismissed with something like "Mavs twitter will always be negative". Well "boys", as of now it turns out that Mavs twitter was mostly correct and the Mavs FO was mostly wrong. Roster is seriously flawed. Problem is, it is not working neither on offense nor defense. 

Lets first have a look at defense. I think we can agree the team will be build around Luka. He has his limitations on defense so you have to adjust accordingly. I think Mavs were totally correct in their summer statements you have to put long and switchable defenders around him. Problem is that what they actually did is basically the exact opposite. Instead of long switchable defenders they gave him a center, a center playing PF and being hidden on worst opposing perimeter player (once reserved for Luka) and THJ (not really a good defender). There is plenty of data from last 2 years that shows how Luka-KP-THJ equals bad defense. I understand they couldn't let THJ walk in the summer as it would be even bigger disaster than it was. However, the result is basically what we were affraid of. Moving THJ to bench improved defense, but having 18 mil/per reserve is quite a luxury, once Luka extension kicks in. Saying that it is not important who starts but who finishes is fools gold, as Luka-KP-THJ defense will work equally "well" in the fourth as it does in the first quarter. 

In addition to the trio discussed above, Mavs need to solve the Brunson "puzzle". He is playing great on offense, but is nothing special on defense. He will certainly be targeted in playoffs due to his size. This is especially problematic if he is played next to the trio above as little help can be expected from them. The sample size of all of them playing together from last two seasons is small but not really encouraging. Assuming Brunson will cost around 15 mil per year, Mavs would have over 30 mil locked in two players coming from the bench.

In my opinion, Mavs will need to trade at least one of THJ or KP to hope having decent defense. Brunson is still a puzzle. 

Offense

On the offensive side the lack of talent has never been so obvious as this year. Mavs can get offense to respectable level but then defense suffers. It seems like 13 out of 15 players can't put it on the floor with hope of resulting in a reasonable outcome. Luka is literally the only player that requires special attention from more than one opponent defender. Brunson is good but can be limited (see yesterday). KP can be defended perfectly well with a more or less random wing as his ability to exploit his size is totally limited. KP is good if he recieves the ball very deep in the paint shooting 68 % from less than 5 feet. When he is further away from the basket it is a disaster. 37 % from 5-9 feet away, 38 % 10-14 feet and so on. All KP post ups more than 5 feet away are a bad possession. Perhaps he is happy, but the result is bad. 

While Wright and JRich could put it on the floor at least to some extent, Bullock has zero ability. I think there are only so many DFS/Bullock types a starting line-up can afford. If Mavs would have three players capable of putting it on the floor together with DFS and Bullock it could work, but for some reason Mavs are playing Powell and KP with them. 

I won't even go into how zero sense makes playing Powell (or any other non shooting center) in a system where KP wants to post up on offense. Mavs insisting on this line-up is getting beyond ridiculous. I don't even blame Powell, this one is on the coaching staff.

Conclusion

Mavs need to start working as the clock is ticking. Last three years have been a disaster from team building perspective. Whatever strategy Mavs decide to go for it would have to be extremely creative and of course successful. No more room for mistakes. At this point, if a good deal is not to be reached by TDL, I would actually consider a one year tank. Sit Luka for whatever reason, trade a couple of players for assets and hope for a top 5 pick. Who knows, perhaps Mavs are already doing that. The team desperately needs a significant talent infusion.