IZTOK DIAGNOSES DECLINE OF MAVS OFFENSE

[michaeltex]

Update --

Iztok said on Twitter today that he wanted to elaborate on his article in two respects. 

1.  Two-big lineups

When he talks about the poor two-big lineups, he is talking about lineups in which KP is operating as the 4. 

The Lakers have faced similar problems with AD. Kidd often refers to Vogel as his mentor, and Vogel says he was able to unlock LeBron's offense by downsizing to smaller lineups, with one big or no bigs. AD played over 90% of his time at PF last season, and now spends 70% of his minutes at center. Kidd may want to consider the same. 

(Iztok acknowledges in the original article that he understands the logic of using two bigs to preserve KP's body for the playoffs, but thinks that goal must be balanced with the team's performing at a sufficient level to get to the playoffs in the first place.)

2.  Three-point shooting

Data suggests that the new ball is not the problem. Rather, it's more about the new rules and Kidd's system. 

The Mavs are still okay at uncontested or lightly contested threes. However, they take the highest number of heavily contested threes in the league, and make them at the third-worst rate. Last season, the team took fewer heavily contested threes (although still a lot), but Luka, KP and THJ were making them at a very high rate, and this season, they're not. Some positive regression could still occur, but it may not be totally a result of randomness.

The 3pt shooting seems to go back to the spacing issue. If the shooters aren't deep in the corner and high on the wing, or when one is a non-shooter like DP, then you can have one guy cover both and use the extra coverage to disrupt Luka's game.

I get that Kidd is trying to elevate KP's game, but it almost feels like sub-optimizing to make one guy successful. Maybe this is part of inflating his value for a trade, but I personally am frustrated with the result. Last two seasons you always had a sense that the guys were never out of a game, but this year there have been several they were done before the 4th quarter started.