12-17-2021, 12:49 PM
Where Has All the Offense Gone?
The exciting and effective offense of the past two seasons has deteriorated into a slog this season. Shot quality has been reduced. More mid-range shots and fewer shots at the rim are being attempted. Drives have declined to 24th in the league. A team that averaged 117 and 112 points in the last two seasons frequently doesn't manage 100. Shouldn't a team that “is built for offense,” per Jason Kidd, be better than mediocre on that end of the court? Yes.
So, what's up with the decline? Several factors may be at play.
New Ball. This is Mark Cuban’s proffered opinion. Make of it what you will.
New Officiating Rules. This has had an effect league-wide, but the Mavs have declined relative to other teams.
Luka’s Conditioning. Luka’s burst has been sapped, making him have to work harder to drive by defenders and get into the paint. Luka needs to be better. But Kidd's scheme is not doing him any favors.
But, mainly —
Kidd’s Offense
Two-Big Lineups
Carlisle used these too, but far less often than Kidd does. These lineups rank among the worst in the league offensively. When these lineups are on the floor, drives, Luka’s pick-and-roll efficiency, volume of uncontested corner threes, and shots in the restricted area are worse. The KP-Powell lineups are the worst in the NBA in terms of rim frequency.
Lack of clearly defined roles. Interesting fact. These lineups worked very well offensively in Carlisle’s scheme (although they struggled defensively). This was at least partly due to having clearly defined roles — the center served as the screener and roller, and the PF spaced the floor. In the KP-Powell duo, Powell would screen and roll, KP would hang out behind the three-point line, and it was all copacetic wrt offensive performance.
Prioritizing KP's individual performance. Kidd’s main focus on offense has been to get KP back to playing at an All-Star level. That goal requires not giving KP a limited role. KP now serves as the screener (rather than the spacer) more than twice as often, even with Powell on the floor. While it is a noble effort to lift KP, the result is that defenders ignore Powell and instead pack the paint to prevent Luka’s drives. The Luka-KP tandem was the league’s best PNR duo last season. Executing those plays with another guy on the floor who doesn’t have to be guarded has cratered the maneuver.
And the two-big lineups aren't even the biggest challenge in the new system. That would be --
Spacing
In Carlisle’s offense, spacing was a very high priority, with shooters placed deep in the corners and high on the wings. For Kidd’s coaching staff, spacing is simply not a priority — rather, they are more focused on defense. On offense, their main goal is to get KP operating like he did in NY — more plays inside the arc, more post-ups, more elbow action. The shooters are positioned closer in, and it is ruining Luka’s ability to drive in a league where a foot, or even a fraction of an inch, can matter.
This far into the season, KP is still seen trying to seal his man in isolation and PNRs. He spends more time at the dunker’s spot (on the baseline just outside the paint), even when he is the only big on the court. Accordingly, Luka's ability to get to the rim is reduced. Taking a dismal recent late-game play trying to come from behind as an example, Luka drives into the paint off a Brunson pick. Last season, that would have resulted in an easy layup. Now, KP is hanging out near the rim, KP's defender collapses on Luka, Luka is forced to make an awkward kick-out to Tim, and Tim misses the three. Plays like this add up, and turn the Mavs into a jump-shooting team.
Where We Go From Here
It’s too early to assess Kidd’s offense as a finished product. He is still experimenting, and, in fairness, the results haven’t been all bad. KP looks more comfortable, and is more aggressively attacking mismatches. If Porzingis can punish opponents for putting wings on him, that would go a long way toward unlocking the Luka-KP PNR in the playoffs.
But first, they have to get to the playoffs, let alone try to win a series. For this to happen, everybody on the team has to bring his “A” game. The talent level of the roster and the team’s position in the standings don’t allow much more time for experimenting. Shooters have to start making open shots. Luka needs to get in shape. Kidd needs to dial the two-big lineups down and unclog the offense.
There is still enough season left to turn the offense around. But time is growing short.
https://www.dmagazine.com/sports/2021/12...-solution/
The exciting and effective offense of the past two seasons has deteriorated into a slog this season. Shot quality has been reduced. More mid-range shots and fewer shots at the rim are being attempted. Drives have declined to 24th in the league. A team that averaged 117 and 112 points in the last two seasons frequently doesn't manage 100. Shouldn't a team that “is built for offense,” per Jason Kidd, be better than mediocre on that end of the court? Yes.
So, what's up with the decline? Several factors may be at play.
New Ball. This is Mark Cuban’s proffered opinion. Make of it what you will.
New Officiating Rules. This has had an effect league-wide, but the Mavs have declined relative to other teams.
Luka’s Conditioning. Luka’s burst has been sapped, making him have to work harder to drive by defenders and get into the paint. Luka needs to be better. But Kidd's scheme is not doing him any favors.
But, mainly —
Kidd’s Offense
Two-Big Lineups
Carlisle used these too, but far less often than Kidd does. These lineups rank among the worst in the league offensively. When these lineups are on the floor, drives, Luka’s pick-and-roll efficiency, volume of uncontested corner threes, and shots in the restricted area are worse. The KP-Powell lineups are the worst in the NBA in terms of rim frequency.
Lack of clearly defined roles. Interesting fact. These lineups worked very well offensively in Carlisle’s scheme (although they struggled defensively). This was at least partly due to having clearly defined roles — the center served as the screener and roller, and the PF spaced the floor. In the KP-Powell duo, Powell would screen and roll, KP would hang out behind the three-point line, and it was all copacetic wrt offensive performance.
Prioritizing KP's individual performance. Kidd’s main focus on offense has been to get KP back to playing at an All-Star level. That goal requires not giving KP a limited role. KP now serves as the screener (rather than the spacer) more than twice as often, even with Powell on the floor. While it is a noble effort to lift KP, the result is that defenders ignore Powell and instead pack the paint to prevent Luka’s drives. The Luka-KP tandem was the league’s best PNR duo last season. Executing those plays with another guy on the floor who doesn’t have to be guarded has cratered the maneuver.
And the two-big lineups aren't even the biggest challenge in the new system. That would be --
Spacing
In Carlisle’s offense, spacing was a very high priority, with shooters placed deep in the corners and high on the wings. For Kidd’s coaching staff, spacing is simply not a priority — rather, they are more focused on defense. On offense, their main goal is to get KP operating like he did in NY — more plays inside the arc, more post-ups, more elbow action. The shooters are positioned closer in, and it is ruining Luka’s ability to drive in a league where a foot, or even a fraction of an inch, can matter.
This far into the season, KP is still seen trying to seal his man in isolation and PNRs. He spends more time at the dunker’s spot (on the baseline just outside the paint), even when he is the only big on the court. Accordingly, Luka's ability to get to the rim is reduced. Taking a dismal recent late-game play trying to come from behind as an example, Luka drives into the paint off a Brunson pick. Last season, that would have resulted in an easy layup. Now, KP is hanging out near the rim, KP's defender collapses on Luka, Luka is forced to make an awkward kick-out to Tim, and Tim misses the three. Plays like this add up, and turn the Mavs into a jump-shooting team.
Where We Go From Here
It’s too early to assess Kidd’s offense as a finished product. He is still experimenting, and, in fairness, the results haven’t been all bad. KP looks more comfortable, and is more aggressively attacking mismatches. If Porzingis can punish opponents for putting wings on him, that would go a long way toward unlocking the Luka-KP PNR in the playoffs.
But first, they have to get to the playoffs, let alone try to win a series. For this to happen, everybody on the team has to bring his “A” game. The talent level of the roster and the team’s position in the standings don’t allow much more time for experimenting. Shooters have to start making open shots. Luka needs to get in shape. Kidd needs to dial the two-big lineups down and unclog the offense.
There is still enough season left to turn the offense around. But time is growing short.
https://www.dmagazine.com/sports/2021/12...-solution/
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