11-04-2021, 05:33 PM
Mark and Brian share their thoughts on where the Mavs stand after 8 games.
LAST FIVE GAMES. Don't expect the past week to be particularly representative — 5 games in 7 nights, including a night at altitude and a day game, is just a brutally tiring stretch, even if they had all been healthy.
BRUNSON. Breakout story of the week.
Spurs game. JB was great, but let’s not forget that part of the reason for that is that Pop left McDermott out there for a long time, and the Mavs were aggressively running the game through his assignment (usually Jalen). Luka was deferring because he realized that Jalen had a more favorable matchup, and kudos to him for doing so.
Kidd volunteered after the game that he probably messed with Jalen’s head, asking him to miss that second free throw. Brunson either didn’t know that the ball had to hit the rim, or shot very wide of the mark. The podders like the call, even though there was some risk with 2.7 seconds left. Although it failed in execution, the review of the second miss gave the Mavs time to get Bobi in, and all’s well that ends well.
Does Brunson eliminate the need for Dragic, or another playmaker? No. The team has minutes for a secondary playmaker with Luka, and a guy who can run the second unit. They need more than two playmakers, partly so that Luka can play more off the ball, which he spent part of his early career doing with Dragic. He had four assisted shots in the Spurs game, compared to two assisted shots all of last season.
The average NBA team has 4 or 5 guys who can make plays. If the Mavs do get Dragic, they will have to take into consideration that he is also a defensive liability and will probably need to make further adjustments.
Should Brunson be elevated to the starting unit when everyone is healthy? Maybe. But it’s by no means an automatic decision. If you start JB, you take a pretty big hit defensively. So you probably have to make an additional adjustment to get a better defender in. You have to live with some concerns about his defense and small size, which is not what Kidd has been aiming for.
Coach still wants to give his original lineup more time to work, and he likes to start with two bigs in hopes of reducing KP’s workload. And, even acknowledging how great Brunson has looked lately, the jury is still out on him where the playoffs are concerned. Although he had a good regular season, he was played off the floor in the post-season, primarily due to his lack of size and defensive issues.
Can someone besides Luka or Brunson run the second unit? Doesn’t appear that way. Frank is not ready, because he has no consistent three-point shot. He has been asked to drive more, and his two-point scoring has greatly improved. But his long shot seems to have hit the skids. Burke can’t be relied on to show up for his COVID tests.
PORZINGIS. His status is one giant “we’ll see.” He traveled to San Antonio and practiced with the team, but was unable to go. TBD whether he plays in Saturday’s game.
BULLOCK. No update on Reggie's injury. Some facial injuries allow the injured guy to play with a face mask, others require some time off.
BOBAN. Had a huge impact in the Spurs game on both ends. Has one of the most unique and difficult roles in the NBA — going for long stretches without playing, and then expected to come in and be highly productive on short notice. Requires a lot of effort keeping the body in shape, and he is mature enough to do that. However, MF thinks one of the fouls he took in SA was really an excuse to catch his breath, as he looked pretty gassed.
DFS. Dorian is the team’s hardest worker, except maybe Powell. His three-point shot has gone AWOL this season, sitting at 20%. The team wants more from him offensively — driving, doing a little distributing, doing a little scoring closer to the basket, attacking the offensive glass, in addition to his usual cutting, dunking, and long shots.
Brian speculates that all these new responsibilities seem to have Dorian overthinking on the court and regressing on things he normally does well. It’s not surprising that there would be some rough patches involved with such a substantial change in role. At some point in the season, they may abandon some of these efforts if they haven’t panned out.
Doe-Doe is the player left most wide open in the league, even surpassing #2 Russell Westbrook. The fact is that he can’t stay on the floor long-term if he is getting that disrespected and not making the opponent pay.
DEFENSE. Defense is coming along pretty well. Top ten against shots at the rim. Overall, middle of the pack. Bottom ten against threes. Bottom ten in PIP allowed. So opponents are not necessarily getting to the rim, but they’re still scoring in the paint. Sample size is still very small, and the big clunker Miami game has skewed the defensive statistics downward.
OFFENSE
Sets. Igor is gradually installing sets, rather than using the flow offense, but the basic structure of the offense is not significantly different from last season. The main structural differences are that they are trying to give DFS a bigger role, and that other teams are figuring out the importance of taking away Powell’s rolls to the basket. Most of their successful new sets have been run out of timeouts and after dead balls.
Bottom of the league in early returns. The offense is very much still a work in progress. They are last in the league in rim attacks and shot distance from the basket. Not getting to the hole at all, and shooting from a long way out. They are also bottom five in many other categories.
Three-point shooting. Dismal, outside of Brunson and Kleber. Tim is only slightly down, but everyone else is terrible. Oddly, they are 4th in the league in open and wide open shots. But they’re 25th in completing those shots. So when Kidd keeps saying that they’re getting good looks, but they’re not going down, he’s telling the truth. Some regression to the mean on open and wide open shotmaking would make a huge difference. They’re not taking bad shots, as a general matter, just missing good ones.
Why is the offense so bad? Three-point shooting, free-throw attempts, and overall scoring are all substantially down across the league. Many teams around the league, including good teams, are having early-season struggles — it’s not just the Mavs. Part of that is that the game is being officiated differently. Only five guys in the league are averaging 7 or more FTAS per game. Mark thinks the new ball is more of a talking point than a real issue.
In the Dallas case, the Mavs’ “new” offense ought not to present major adjustment problems, as it’s not that different from the old. For whatever reason, Luka is having more difficulty getting to the rim this season, and KP being out for most of the games is probably having an effect, along with the league getting better at knowing how to play against the Mavs.
EIGHT GAMES IN, WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT WHO THE MAVS REALLY ARE?
The short answer is, not much. On the plus side, they are winning the games they are expected to win. Last season, they laid a lot of eggs against bad teams, but now they appear to be taking care of business.
As far as the three losses, Miami is just a clearly better team. There was no excuse for Dallas being that terrible in Denver, but NBA records show that Denver on the second night of a b2b is virtually a guaranteed loss for any visiting team, and a blowout counts the same in the loss column as a nail biter. Atlanta was on opening night, when anything can happen.
We’re still very much in the getting-to-know-you stage, but there are a number of favorable signs. Should be interesting watching them develop.
LAST FIVE GAMES. Don't expect the past week to be particularly representative — 5 games in 7 nights, including a night at altitude and a day game, is just a brutally tiring stretch, even if they had all been healthy.
BRUNSON. Breakout story of the week.
Spurs game. JB was great, but let’s not forget that part of the reason for that is that Pop left McDermott out there for a long time, and the Mavs were aggressively running the game through his assignment (usually Jalen). Luka was deferring because he realized that Jalen had a more favorable matchup, and kudos to him for doing so.
Kidd volunteered after the game that he probably messed with Jalen’s head, asking him to miss that second free throw. Brunson either didn’t know that the ball had to hit the rim, or shot very wide of the mark. The podders like the call, even though there was some risk with 2.7 seconds left. Although it failed in execution, the review of the second miss gave the Mavs time to get Bobi in, and all’s well that ends well.
Does Brunson eliminate the need for Dragic, or another playmaker? No. The team has minutes for a secondary playmaker with Luka, and a guy who can run the second unit. They need more than two playmakers, partly so that Luka can play more off the ball, which he spent part of his early career doing with Dragic. He had four assisted shots in the Spurs game, compared to two assisted shots all of last season.
The average NBA team has 4 or 5 guys who can make plays. If the Mavs do get Dragic, they will have to take into consideration that he is also a defensive liability and will probably need to make further adjustments.
Should Brunson be elevated to the starting unit when everyone is healthy? Maybe. But it’s by no means an automatic decision. If you start JB, you take a pretty big hit defensively. So you probably have to make an additional adjustment to get a better defender in. You have to live with some concerns about his defense and small size, which is not what Kidd has been aiming for.
Coach still wants to give his original lineup more time to work, and he likes to start with two bigs in hopes of reducing KP’s workload. And, even acknowledging how great Brunson has looked lately, the jury is still out on him where the playoffs are concerned. Although he had a good regular season, he was played off the floor in the post-season, primarily due to his lack of size and defensive issues.
Can someone besides Luka or Brunson run the second unit? Doesn’t appear that way. Frank is not ready, because he has no consistent three-point shot. He has been asked to drive more, and his two-point scoring has greatly improved. But his long shot seems to have hit the skids. Burke can’t be relied on to show up for his COVID tests.
PORZINGIS. His status is one giant “we’ll see.” He traveled to San Antonio and practiced with the team, but was unable to go. TBD whether he plays in Saturday’s game.
BULLOCK. No update on Reggie's injury. Some facial injuries allow the injured guy to play with a face mask, others require some time off.
BOBAN. Had a huge impact in the Spurs game on both ends. Has one of the most unique and difficult roles in the NBA — going for long stretches without playing, and then expected to come in and be highly productive on short notice. Requires a lot of effort keeping the body in shape, and he is mature enough to do that. However, MF thinks one of the fouls he took in SA was really an excuse to catch his breath, as he looked pretty gassed.
DFS. Dorian is the team’s hardest worker, except maybe Powell. His three-point shot has gone AWOL this season, sitting at 20%. The team wants more from him offensively — driving, doing a little distributing, doing a little scoring closer to the basket, attacking the offensive glass, in addition to his usual cutting, dunking, and long shots.
Brian speculates that all these new responsibilities seem to have Dorian overthinking on the court and regressing on things he normally does well. It’s not surprising that there would be some rough patches involved with such a substantial change in role. At some point in the season, they may abandon some of these efforts if they haven’t panned out.
Doe-Doe is the player left most wide open in the league, even surpassing #2 Russell Westbrook. The fact is that he can’t stay on the floor long-term if he is getting that disrespected and not making the opponent pay.
DEFENSE. Defense is coming along pretty well. Top ten against shots at the rim. Overall, middle of the pack. Bottom ten against threes. Bottom ten in PIP allowed. So opponents are not necessarily getting to the rim, but they’re still scoring in the paint. Sample size is still very small, and the big clunker Miami game has skewed the defensive statistics downward.
OFFENSE
Sets. Igor is gradually installing sets, rather than using the flow offense, but the basic structure of the offense is not significantly different from last season. The main structural differences are that they are trying to give DFS a bigger role, and that other teams are figuring out the importance of taking away Powell’s rolls to the basket. Most of their successful new sets have been run out of timeouts and after dead balls.
Bottom of the league in early returns. The offense is very much still a work in progress. They are last in the league in rim attacks and shot distance from the basket. Not getting to the hole at all, and shooting from a long way out. They are also bottom five in many other categories.
Three-point shooting. Dismal, outside of Brunson and Kleber. Tim is only slightly down, but everyone else is terrible. Oddly, they are 4th in the league in open and wide open shots. But they’re 25th in completing those shots. So when Kidd keeps saying that they’re getting good looks, but they’re not going down, he’s telling the truth. Some regression to the mean on open and wide open shotmaking would make a huge difference. They’re not taking bad shots, as a general matter, just missing good ones.
Why is the offense so bad? Three-point shooting, free-throw attempts, and overall scoring are all substantially down across the league. Many teams around the league, including good teams, are having early-season struggles — it’s not just the Mavs. Part of that is that the game is being officiated differently. Only five guys in the league are averaging 7 or more FTAS per game. Mark thinks the new ball is more of a talking point than a real issue.
In the Dallas case, the Mavs’ “new” offense ought not to present major adjustment problems, as it’s not that different from the old. For whatever reason, Luka is having more difficulty getting to the rim this season, and KP being out for most of the games is probably having an effect, along with the league getting better at knowing how to play against the Mavs.
EIGHT GAMES IN, WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT WHO THE MAVS REALLY ARE?
The short answer is, not much. On the plus side, they are winning the games they are expected to win. Last season, they laid a lot of eggs against bad teams, but now they appear to be taking care of business.
As far as the three losses, Miami is just a clearly better team. There was no excuse for Dallas being that terrible in Denver, but NBA records show that Denver on the second night of a b2b is virtually a guaranteed loss for any visiting team, and a blowout counts the same in the loss column as a nail biter. Atlanta was on opening night, when anything can happen.
We’re still very much in the getting-to-know-you stage, but there are a number of favorable signs. Should be interesting watching them develop.
![[-]](https://www.mavsboard.com/images/collapse.png)