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(05-13-2021, 06:03 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Short answer...More.
Long answer. I don’t think just being happy to be here is good enough. I’d like to end the playoffs with everyone healthy going into the summer. That would be successful. I’d like a Calvin Booth moment if I’m honest. But, we all know there will be only one winner and everyone will get bounced eventually and there will be those among us calling for various heads no matter what round we exit.
Would I be pleased if we took Denver or LAC to a game seven and we lost a nail-biter? That’s really kind of the question, right? That fits the definition of “more”. I can hear people defending the team that we never really got to play our best lineups together for much of the year. I’m afraid I want a bit more to be satisfied. I want Calvin to hit the put back...even if we get bounced in four games in round two.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say that if we can beat our first-round opponent if it's a team other than the no-Murray Nuggets, we could possibly beat anyone, assuming Luka doesn't get too worn down and KP stays healthy.
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(05-13-2021, 04:32 PM)F Gump Wrote: I know there are many who idly toss WCS to the curb for next year, in order to eke out a bit more latitude for cap room, but I've never seen it happening. Still don't, and this ^ is why - his salary, as is being noted, is bargain priced. WCS has been excellent lately. Really locked in and playing great team ball. Couple that with Hardaway and the trend points towards us bringing them both back. If they’re both brought back then the best bang for our buck on the remaining space is probably to max that out with J Rich and MLE. All of which fits with a KP trade or keep KP giving us flexibility in the trade market. Not to mention that kicking the can down the road long enough gives us our FRP’s back for trade
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(05-13-2021, 04:32 PM)F Gump Wrote: I know there are many who idly toss WCS to the curb for next year, in order to eke out a bit more latitude for cap room, but I've never seen it happening. Still don't, and this ^ is why - his salary, as is being noted, is bargain priced.
I definitely think he could be back. I have been penciling him in for the room exception if the Mavs operate over the cap. That would give him a small pay bump (5 mil instead of 4) and they could do another 1+1. This would allow Mavs to add his 4 mil to the 30 ish they would create under the cap.
If the Mavs do operate over the cap then they probably just pick up his option. I have been penciling him in for the rMLE just bc its hard to find good players for that level of money and he fits the bill.
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(05-13-2021, 01:13 PM)mvossman Wrote: I would rather have Holmes or Theis without giving up an asset, and I don't see NYK sending a first in that deal.
Ya and honestly Mavs might be perfectly fine with their big rotation right now sans KP who's whole situation is the elephant in the room right now. If KP stays then KP, Powell, Maxi, WCS still is pretty good and I think Mavs spend their non-THJ money on the best playmaking/scoring/shooting guard they can find. If KP is moved then a new big will be brought in.
I still am like 50.9% sure that Mavs will want to try to make KP work one more year with a full offseason where he's not rehabbing an injury.
So with that in mind the offseason is like THJ/FA guard/WCS for rMLE and so what you accomplished is mainly trying to upgrade J Rich's position. The MBT will make the case that said guard is better than Curry or J Rich was and off we go.
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So, if the plan this summer is to keep both KP and THJ, how much would we have to spend on a FA?
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(05-13-2021, 08:40 PM)chaparral Wrote: So, if the plan this summer is to keep both KP and THJ, how much would we have to spend on a FA?
So I think THJ's range is 13-18 mil given similar player comps. I could see him for example getting 4/60. If he gets 15/yr then you'd have 19-ish but there isn't really an obvious player worth 19-ish in the market. We have some older guys that are around 25/yr with shorter years (Conley, Lowry, DeRozan) and the some above MLE players but its hard to picture who would be worth paying 19/yr.
I think Norman Powell is the only name I can think of that's in that range, I have seen him going as high as 20/yr. He would be a good target but its hard to picture the Blazers letting him get away.
Terrance Ross is a trade target I'd like to see if Mavs could get him. Otherwise these RFA's (THT most notably) would be tough to pry away.
I think Dinwiddie could be a good target on a team-friendly deal including possibly an opt-in and trade. He seems like one of the better targets. Dragic should be available for a good price, potentially MLE level which would allow Mavs to operate over the cap.
One of the things that would do is allow you to keep J Rich or do an opt-in and trade deal.
THJ/Rich/Dragic/WCS/Maybe JJR back on a 1 yr deal would be pretty good. Mavs in that scenario might save their BAE.
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(05-13-2021, 12:29 PM)Kammrath Wrote: RH is my target regardless of KP being in DAL or not. He is the perfect big for Luka in today's NBA. Switchable on D and elite roll man on O. Give me RH next to KP....or next to ________. Just give me RH.
Love me some Holmes. I do see an issue in a "RH next to KP" scenario. There isn't a path to Holmes without going under the cap and using room to sign him. So, if you assume Richardson is how we create that room for Holmes, how are you then replacing Richardson? Green? rMLE?
Green replacing Richardson the starter probably doesn't work. But, for at least a night, Richardson wasn't the starter. He was a bench guy and Green probably can replace a bench guy next season.
Holmes replacing Powell so that starters are Holmes/KP/DFS/THJ/Luka probably helps the defense adapt to having three poor defenders on the floor in Luka, THJ and KP. Green plays when DFS sits and guards the other teams primary bench scorer? I think that works. You'll always need a fifth viable big if KP is on the team. So, that could be Willie with the rMLE or maybe a veteran PF type. Or, you get a minimum wage or BAE Big and use the rMLE on a veteran swing man just in case Green isn't quite ready.
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(05-13-2021, 08:40 PM)chaparral Wrote: So, if the plan this summer is to keep both KP and THJ, how much would we have to spend on a FA?
$34mm is the space w/o THJ, JRich and WCS (as has been mentioned, there are ways to grab $4mm in space AND keep WCS using an exception). I think you are probably looking at $17/$18mm for THJ, so that leaves $17/$16mm for a FA.
As mentioned in the response to Kamm...should Green be in the top 10 next season? If so, do you need to use $17mm in space on another guard/wing? Might you go for an upgrade at C with that money?
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(05-13-2021, 10:39 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Love me some Holmes. I do see an issue in a "RH next to KP" scenario. There isn't a path to Holmes without going under the cap and using room to sign him. So, if you assume Richardson is how we create that room for Holmes, how are you then replacing Richardson? Green? rMLE?
Green replacing Richardson the starter probably doesn't work. But, for at least a night, Richardson wasn't the starter. He was a bench guy and Green probably can replace a bench guy next season.
Holmes replacing Powell so that starters are Holmes/KP/DFS/THJ/Luka probably helps the defense adapt to having three poor defenders on the floor in Luka, THJ and KP. Green plays when DFS sits and guards the other teams primary bench scorer? I think that works. You'll always need a fifth viable big if KP is on the team. So, that could be Willie with the rMLE or maybe a veteran PF type. Or, you get a minimum wage or BAE Big and use the rMLE on a veteran swing man just in case Green isn't quite ready.
Yes, assuming KP stays, then...
1) you roll out RH/KP/DFS/THJ/Luka as your starters.
2) you replace JR with JG....easily IMO, because I think JR is the easiest replacement as he has been a disaster of a fit in regard to on court winning.
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05-13-2021, 11:27 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-13-2021, 11:28 PM by Mapka.)
(05-13-2021, 11:18 PM)Kammrath Wrote: Yes, assuming KP stays, then...
1) you roll out RH/KP/DFS/THJ/Luka as your starters.
2) you replace JR with JG....easily IMO, because I think JR is the easiest replacement as he has been a disaster of a fit in regard to on court winning.
So we want to start the season with only two playmakers but 4 bigs with startermoney on the roaster? Good luck with that.
We need a JRich upgrade if he leaves. Not as a starter, but as a playmaker.
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(05-13-2021, 11:27 PM)Mapka Wrote: playmaker.
If you want a playmaker, then trade KP. KP is the highest paid player on the team, if he can't make plays then he needs to go. Period.
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(05-13-2021, 11:27 PM)Mapka Wrote: So we want to start the season with only two playmakers but 4 bigs with startermoney on the roaster? Good luck with that.
We need a JRich upgrade if he leaves. Not as a starter, but as a playmaker.
So, with $17mm, fill the spot. Go.
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05-14-2021, 12:59 AM
(This post was last modified: 05-14-2021, 01:02 AM by SleepingHero.)
(05-13-2021, 11:37 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: So, with $17mm, fill the spot. Go.
Can we play with trades? I'm going to operate as if we can and can't.
If we can't and we need to target players hovering around that 17 mil my list would be.
Long long shots-
Lonzo Ball- There's probably little to no shot Ball signs for less than 20mm per, but it doesn't hurt to try.
JJ Redick - I don't think he'll get 17mm, but I don't think he'll want to stick around in DAL
Dennis Schroeder- One that is looking for something much higher than 17mm. Also his well documented attitude issues scare me. Even on the Lakers he's been trying to force his way in the starting lineup (which he'll get here) and causing strife all season from what I've read from LAL fans.
Mike Conley- He's going to get more than 17mm. But theoretically he'd be a perfect fit.
Kyle Lowry- Same with Conley. He's going to get a short term big payday from someone and will be higher than 17mm, but a perfect fit nonetheless.
Norman Powell- 20ppg gunner that is looking for a payday. But hey the guy can score and can kinda defend. Not a bad look.
Demar DeRozan- Technically a 3rd star though the fit is weird. Still being the only option led the Spurs to the play-in and was hovering around the playoffs. Dude can score like crazy. Would be worth to take a look.
The sweet spot-
Evan Fournier- Seems to be right in the sweet spot of 17mm a year. Scorer, playmaker, average defender. Solid choice.
Goran Dragic- Older. Would probably be on the lower end money wise. Still can play and has established chemistry with Luka. One of my favorite options this summer.
Danny Green- Don't think Donnie will go after Green a 3rd time (he is...isn't he?) but he still fits pretty well.
Derrick Rose- Another one of my favorites. Will be on the lower end but fills EXACTLY what we're looking for at the secondary guard spot. I have no idea why the Mavs haven't tried earlier to get Rose.
Victor Oladipo- I was all in on the idea on Dipo. After his latest knee surgery I've cooled off a lot. I think with this latest injury it puts max contract conversations to rest, which means he can be a bargain find. And Dipo at 17mm is a lot more attractive than Dipo at 30mm, even with the health risks.
Malik Monk- Another gunner that can probably be pried away from CHA. Has a rocky past that even has some cocaine use which historically is not the Mavs forte, but as a 6th man Monk seemed to have found his place.
Bargain Bin Value-
TJ McConnell- Is probably going to come in well below that 17mm a year but does provide pesky defense and solid playmaking. Can't space the floor which limits his fit here.
Patty Mills- A notorious Mavs killer could turn to the light-side and right his wrongs. Can still score in bunches. Probably more of a Burke replacement but I'm not complaining if they were to sign him.
Austin Rivers- Meh all around. Not my first choice but he shouldn't cost more than 5mm a year.
Josh Hart- Did you know Josh Hart is a terrific rebounder? Blew my mind. Wouldn't be mad to have him around.
Trade targets-
Malcolm Brogdon- Hey Pacers seem to be on a roll with making bad moves. Let's help them make another.
Buddy Hield- I will never get off the Hield train. Even after a rocky start Hield has made 274 threes this season. That beats Mavs franchise record holder George McCloud by nearly 20 (257). That kind of historic shooting next to Luka can only be a good thing.
Zach Lavine- It isn't going to happen through a trade but he needs to be on this list lest Mavs2021 comes for me.
Ricky Rubio- Playmaker extraordinaire, would fit well here even if he can't shoot. Can probably be had for peanuts too.
Marcus Smart- General feeling out of BOS that Smart is on his way out this summer. Mavs would be a nice destination.
Justin Holiday- If the Pacers won't let us have Brogdon a nice consolation would be Justin.
Patrick Beverley- Hey the Mavs had interest in the past. Clips seem to prefer Rondo. I wouldn't mind him too.
I suppose after reading what I wrote I made more of an omnibus than a concise list. If I had to narrow it down my top 5 FA guards would be Rose, Dragic, Lowery, Conley, Ball in no particular order. Given that they all have some sort of roadblock either being too expensive or prefer to stay home, trade targets make more sense.
Out of the trade targets I listed, my top 5 would be Hield, Brogdon, Rubio, Smart, and Beverly. Left off Lavine because I just don't think CHI is trading him at all this summer and it's a non-starter. All the others I can see being traded easily.
Curious to see what others think the best move would be.
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(05-13-2021, 11:29 PM)Kammrath Wrote: If you want a playmaker, then trade KP. KP is the highest paid player on the team, if he can't make plays then he needs to go. Period.
I'm not sure, how this is connected. There are 5 starters and 4-5 main bench players.
Ideally you have 4-5 playmakers and others being closers. Don't mind to have them do both.
Sleepingheros list is a superb look at options.
I'm sure there a additional options we can't see (yet).
And yes I would rather keep JRich on a extension than overpay a rim-roller and trade JRich later with some picks maybe.
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Do some searching on Rose’s court cases and you will know why Dallas haven’t gone after him recently
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If we keep KP I would still go after Holmes for 3 reasons:
1. He's a perfect fit with Luka running the P&R and gives us 48 minutes of rim-running with Powell.
2. If we decide to trade KP later we don't have to worry about finding a center later.
3. As long as we have KP he's going to miss a bunch of games so we might as well get another center anyway.
Assuming we also bring back THJ, I would like to see us at least try starting Green- I still don't trust THJ as a starter defensively, and Luka/KP/Holmes should give us a good amount of offense in the starting lineup anyway.
Luka / Brunson
Green / THJ
DFS / THJ
KP / Maxi
Holmes / DP
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(05-14-2021, 06:39 AM)Aussiebballer Wrote: Do some searching on Rose’s court cases and you will know why Dallas haven’t gone after him recently
1. He was found not liable in a civil court case. So he was innocent.
2. Mavs only need to worry about 1 court if they're trying to win a championship and it's not the court of law
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(05-14-2021, 12:59 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: Can we play with trades? I'm going to operate as if we can and can't.
If we can't and we need to target players hovering around that 17 mil my list would be.
First, thanks for playing along. If you stick with the spirit of the conversation, then yes on trades (with JRich as part of the outgoing) and FA's making at or under bout $17mm. I'm not really looking to add too many variables as we talk about those kinds of things all the time.
1. So, I'd eliminate the too expensive guys right off the bat: Ball, Conley, Lowry, Powell and Schroeder. I'll put Dipo on this list since he turned down more. I've seen estimates of $20mm for Powell. So, assuming Portland wants him, he may be too rich also. I wil point out that there are a limited number of teams that can send out this kind of money. But current teams can pay. So, you are probably looking for someone who has to change teams and isn't so good that the NY's of the world don't want them. The estimates on DeRozan start in this range and go higher. Maybe DeRozan? Many here don't like the fit. Would he come here to be a 6th man?
2. I'd eliminate the guys who are too rich to trade for. Recall the spirit of the exercise. No KP deals in this conversation or deals where we create even more holes to fill this one. So, Brogdon, Smart and LaVine are gone.
3. I'd eliminate the guys who aren't clearly better than JRich...the devil you know. I think you first have to define JRich. I'd use post AS data. There, he's a net positive in +/- and on a Per 36 basis he's 14/4/3.25 with a 3% of .364. He also seems to be a good locker room fit.
What I'm left with from your excellent work is Fournier and Monk. I could make an argument for Green and Dragic, but the age thing is an issue. I think I'd rather commit four years to the younger guys than even two years to the older guys. But, to Kamm's point, would you rather keep Powell/WCS as your C's and sign Fournier or Monk as a sixth man? Or, would you rather go with Holmes/Powell as your C's and go with Green and some guy for the rMLE to back up the 2/3 spot?
Holmes Powell
KP Maxi
DFS Green
THJ rMLE
Luka Brunson
OR
Powell WCS
KP Maxi
DFS Green
THJ Fournier/Monk
Luka Brunson
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(05-14-2021, 06:39 AM)Branduil Wrote: If we keep KP I would still go after Holmes for 3 reasons:
1. He's a perfect fit with Luka running the P&R and gives us 48 minutes of rim-running with Powell.
2. If we decide to trade KP later we don't have to worry about finding a center later.
3. As long as we have KP he's going to miss a bunch of games so we might as well get another center anyway.
Assuming we also bring back THJ, I would like to see us at least try starting Green- I still don't trust THJ as a starter defensively, and Luka/KP/Holmes should give us a good amount of offense in the starting lineup anyway.
Luka / Brunson
Green / THJ
DFS / THJ
KP / Maxi
Holmes / DP THJ as a starter makes me cry.
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(05-14-2021, 07:49 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Holmes Powell
KP Maxi
DFS Green
THJ rMLE
Luka Brunson
OR
Powell WCS
KP Maxi
DFS Green
THJ Fournier/Monk
Luka Brunson Of these two lineups, I myself much prefer the first. Not sure I see Green as a 3 sized wing though. I think Green paired with Brunson could be a great bench pairing to go with what we know is a perfect pairing in Powell and Maxi (I really want to bring back those days!).
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