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(04-01-2021, 12:01 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: Interesting, I don't think 1.9 points is all that big a deal in that case. At this point, the differential between offense and defense rating is what matters...probably (you statisticians can correct me if I'm wrong).
The only stat I care about so far is the team's net rating. Historically the team that wins the championship is always in the top 5 of net rating. I think the only outliers were the 1995 Rockets and the 2011 Mavs since they tracked the stat.
Mavs are currently 9th in the league. Meaning they're good but not great. I do think the COVID period is weighing the stat down and they're hopefully much better than 9th.
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(04-01-2021, 12:17 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: The only stat I care about so far is the team's net rating. Ah, net rating what what I was trying to describe...
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04-01-2021, 01:44 PM
(This post was last modified: 04-01-2021, 01:44 PM by SleepingHero.)
(04-01-2021, 01:39 PM)Kammrath Wrote: https://twitter.com/NickVanExit/status/1...5053121543
Basically the Luka/KP combo is getting much better.
Probably because KP is rounding back to form, as evidence how big of a difference (+20! since Feb) the lineups are when Luka sits and KP is on.
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(04-01-2021, 01:39 PM)Kammrath Wrote: https://twitter.com/NickVanExit/status/1...5053121543
Not a great indicator that KP is making a "2nd star" impact here, as far as I can tell.
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(04-01-2021, 02:17 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: Not a great indicator that KP is making a "2nd star" impact here, as far as I can tell.
Last 15 games:
KP
Offense: +3.9
Defense: +4.9
Net: +8.8
Luka
Offense: +17.6
Defense: -3.9
Net: +13.7
Luka+KP: +11.5
So the last 15 games they have both been having star impacts and also playing well together.
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04-01-2021, 04:58 PM
(This post was last modified: 04-01-2021, 04:58 PM by KillerLeft.)
(04-01-2021, 03:46 PM)Kammrath Wrote: So the last 15 games they have both been having star impacts and also playing well together.
Well, that tracks with the eye test.
So I guess Nick’s tweet reflects the accumulated season to the point of each date? At a glance, I interpreted the numbers as single game reflections. I see now that the intent was to show that he is digging himself out of his negative hole.
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Starters still looking very good in net rating. People have the Sixers as contender, and the Mavs s5 still have a better net rating than the Sixers starters. And i think the Mavs had a pretty hard schedule so far in comparison with the rest of the league.
Luka - JRich - DFS - Kleber - KP
126.5 off rating
113.4 def rating
-------------
13.1 net rating
17 games (215 min)
Offensive rating dropped a bit, but Defensive rating rising. Sixers starters 12.5 net rating in 19 games (388 min). Lakers starters (with Gasol) are at 13.9. Suns have the most weird 5 man lineups in the league. Booker and CP3 together are complete garbage. Suns have awful net ratings once Booker and CP3 shares the floor. Their starting 5 is at 2.4 net rating in over 500 minutes. They have great net ratings with just 1 of CP3 or Booker.
Of lineups that played 50 min+ our best lineup is:
Brunson - JRich - THJ - DFS - KP
132.1 off rating
106.1 def rating
-------------
26.0 net rating
16 games (89 min)
Negative lineups:
Luka - THJ - JRich - DFS - KP
113.2 off rating
137.9 def rating
-------------
- 24.7 net rating
13 games (58 min)
Luka - THJ - JRich - DFS - KP
92.9 off rating
106.3 def rating
-------------
- 13.4 net rating
9 games (68 min)
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If they're advanced stats are so bad, why do the Sixers and Suns have two of the top records in the league? Honest question.
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(04-02-2021, 03:39 PM)HoosierDaddyKid Wrote: If they're advanced stats are so bad, why do the Sixers and Suns have two of the top records in the league? Honest question.
Who is saying their advanced stats are bad?
The Suns are 3rd in the NBA in Net Rating and the Sixers are 6th.
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04-02-2021, 09:02 PM
(This post was last modified: 04-02-2021, 09:03 PM by Tyler.)
So Carlisle missed the game after testing positive for Covid and waiting for the results of a follow-up test. I interpret this as good news.
https://twitter.com/MFollowill/status/13...6380481538
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04-02-2021, 09:20 PM
(This post was last modified: 04-02-2021, 09:21 PM by Tyler.)
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04-03-2021, 10:11 AM
(This post was last modified: 04-03-2021, 10:13 AM by HoosierDaddyKid.)
(04-02-2021, 03:48 PM)Kammrath Wrote: Who is saying their advanced stats are bad?
The Suns are 3rd in the NBA in Net Rating and the Sixers are 6th.
Suns have awful net ratings with Booker and Paul are on the floor? That's what I read. But the ratings increase when one of them is off the floor? Sometimes all these analytics mislead and confulute reality. The eye test works for me.
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(04-02-2021, 02:27 AM)sefant Wrote: Starters still looking very good in net rating. People have the Sixers as contender, and the Mavs s5 still have a better net rating than the Sixers starters. And i think the Mavs had a pretty hard schedule so far in comparison with the rest of the league.
Luka - JRich - DFS - Kleber - KP
126.5 off rating
113.4 def rating
-------------
13.1 net rating
17 games (215 min)
Offensive rating dropped a bit, but Defensive rating rising. Sixers starters 12.5 net rating in 19 games (388 min). Lakers starters (with Gasol) are at 13.9. Suns have the most weird 5 man lineups in the league. Booker and CP3 together are complete garbage. Suns have awful net ratings once Booker and CP3 shares the floor. Their starting 5 is at 2.4 net rating in over 500 minutes. They have great net ratings with just 1 of CP3 or Booker.
Of lineups that played 50 min+ our best lineup is:
Brunson - JRich - THJ - DFS - KP
132.1 off rating
106.1 def rating
-------------
26.0 net rating
16 games (89 min)
Negative lineups:
Luka - THJ - JRich - DFS - KP
113.2 off rating
137.9 def rating
-------------
- 24.7 net rating
13 games (58 min)
Luka - THJ - JRich - DFS - KP
92.9 off rating
106.3 def rating
-------------
- 13.4 net rating
9 games (68 min)
Your two negative lineups are the same guys.
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(04-03-2021, 10:11 AM)HoosierDaddyKid Wrote: Suns have awful net ratings with Booker and Paul are on the floor? That's what I read. But the ratings increase when one of them is off the floor? Sometimes all these analytics mislead and confulute reality. The eye test works for me.
1) Booker and Paul are 3rd and 4th on the Suns in net on/off and 1st and 2nd for the heavy lifters on the Suns. They are exactly where you would expect them to fall.
2) On/off analytics do NOT mislead when they are large sample sizes and when someone who has half a brain for context looks at them.
3) On/off analytics are nothing more than the most basic analytic of basketball: the team who outscores the other team wins. Therefore on/off analytics are in some ways the only TRULY meaningful stats in basketball because at the end of the day outscoring the opponent is the ONLY way to win in the one stat that matters. And on/off analytics are the only window into that reality.
4) None of that means we don't need to be careful when looking at on/off stats, because we do need to be careful. But people who dismiss them are ultimately dismissing the basic premise of basketball which is to outscore your opponent.
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(04-02-2021, 09:20 PM)Tyler Wrote: https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1378169538269822985
I love this team.
https://twitter.com/dallasmavs/status/13...4555794439
Ok this made me smile from ear to ear. Love the camaraderie.
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04-03-2021, 03:25 PM
(This post was last modified: 04-03-2021, 03:29 PM by HoosierDaddyKid.)
(04-03-2021, 01:05 PM)Kammrath Wrote: 1) Booker and Paul are 3rd and 4th on the Suns in net on/off and 1st and 2nd for the heavy lifters on the Suns. They are exactly where you would expect them to fall.
2) On/off analytics do NOT mislead when they are large sample sizes and when someone who has half a brain for context looks at them.
3) On/off analytics are nothing more than the most basic analytic of basketball: the team who outscores the other team wins. Therefore on/off analytics are in some ways the only TRULY meaningful stats in basketball because at the end of the day outscoring the opponent is the ONLY way to win in the one stat that matters. And on/off analytics are the only window into that reality.
4) None of that means we don't need to be careful when looking at on/off stats, because we do need to be careful. But people who dismiss them are ultimately dismissing the basic premise of basketball which is to outscore your opponent.
Not dismissing none of it. Just saying they don't always hold true. Sometimes there are exceptions to the rule. Appreciate your post though.
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