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(12-18-2020, 10:47 PM)IamDougieFresh Wrote: I would love to get AG but wasn't it rumored that POR offered 2 firsts and got turned down?
Haven't heard that, but I suppose it makes at least a little sense. That's what they gave up for Covington. Personally, I'd rather have Covington, but I guess it's possible they aimed for Gordon first.
Clearly, this means we can expect 3-4 firsts in exchange for Powell.
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(12-18-2020, 10:47 PM)IamDougieFresh Wrote: I would love to get AG but wasn't it rumored that POR offered 2 firsts and got turned down?
In this market, I wouldn't be surprised if that's the asking price. It's why the Harden Rumors were always throwaway. Even if the Mavs wanted him, they couldn't afford him. It also makes the KP trade look like a bargain in retrospect. It also makes me curious what we could turn THJ into at the TDL.
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"The Dallas Mavericks must do everything they can to get Olivier-Maxence Prosper."
- IamDougieFresh (05-20-2023, 04:39 AM)
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(12-18-2020, 11:36 PM)IamDougieFresh Wrote: https://ripcityproject.com/2020/11/18/or...l-blazers/
Part of the reason Orlando probably said no to 2 first rounders is Ariza has zero value as a player. He is just a contract at this point.
Any Mavs deal for AG would likely involve THJ and/or Johnson who do have on the court value that likely reduces draft compensation needed in a trade.
Moreover, there are going to be teams, in a suddenly stronger east, that end up missing the playoffs after overvaluing their players and teams.
Once reality sets in closer the trade deadline the asking price for several players will decrease.
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(12-19-2020, 12:21 AM)Playmaker Wrote: Moreover, there are going to be teams, in a suddenly stronger east, that end up missing the playoffs after overvaluing their players and teams.
Once reality sets in closer the trade deadline the asking price for several players will decrease.
There will be also teams getting desperate and offering more for the sought-after players.
Do we want any overvalued player? What do we even need at the moment.
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(12-19-2020, 12:21 AM)Playmaker Wrote: Moreover, there are going to be teams, in a suddenly stronger east, that end up missing the playoffs after overvaluing their players and teams.
Once reality sets in closer the trade deadline the asking price for several players will decrease.
I think we need to remember that there will be a play in tournament, meaning that if you are12th place before deadline, you still see the opportunity tomake 10th place and fight for playoff spot.
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I could definitely see Gordon being dealt given that they are likely giving Isaac a bunch of money + resign Fournier if they want to keep him? They basically play the same position and Gordon is going to be expiring. It might not happen until the summer though. Lots of teams would be interested but it's hard to gauge exactly what Gordon's value is. For the Mavs it would mean no THJ. I would also think DFS would be one of the assets outgoing. He would be a good 3D player for them. Also Mavs have guys that long-term can replace DFS who's next contract is going to be a lot more than 4 mil.
I think a Powell for Aminu type swap could also make sense as part of that deal since Gordon is effectively replacing Powell.
Resulting lineup would be something like Luka, Rich, Gordon, KP 4-pack. I don't think the Mavs value Gordon more than Powell + retaining THJ on a team-friendly contract so it's probably a no-go.
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Josh Green is a top 5 Mavs player...
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I want to know what the MBT plan for Brunson is. If they don’t plan for him to play next to Luka long term, then I would think we should trade him this season.
He won’t be a RFA, so we can’t make sure we keep him (and I would guess there will be someone willing to offer him more $ for a bigger role), and his value drops next season if a trading team gets less than a year with him and also can’t guarantee to retain him.
This is nothing at all against JB, I’m just worried we’re going to waste him as an asset. I don’t think he’s going to be more than a 15-20 minute guy for us, but I’d be ok with holding onto him if the MBT really thinks he will be, or if our team looks like a serious title contender and we don’t want to mess that up.
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(12-19-2020, 09:46 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: I could definitely see Gordon being dealt given that they are likely giving Isaac a bunch of money + resign Fournier if they want to keep him? They basically play the same position and Gordon is going to be expiring. It might not happen until the summer though. Lots of teams would be interested but it's hard to gauge exactly what Gordon's value is. For the Mavs it would mean no THJ. I would also think DFS would be one of the assets outgoing. He would be a good 3D player for them. Also Mavs have guys that long-term can replace DFS who's next contract is going to be a lot more than 4 mil.
I think a Powell for Aminu type swap could also make sense as part of that deal since Gordon is effectively replacing Powell.
Resulting lineup would be something like Luka, Rich, Gordon, KP 4-pack. I don't think the Mavs value Gordon more than Powell + retaining THJ on a team-friendly contract so it's probably a no-go. Not sure why the Mavs would have to get rid of THJ, Johnson is already enough for salary matching.
What if the price was Johnson+Brunson+DFS for Gordon? That's 3 bench players for one starter, and you can move Powell back to the bench. The Mavs would have to pick up a backup PG somewhere, though.
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Ya I would probably do that trade though I love JB just because it's easier to get a backup PG than a guy like Gordon.
I don't know what MBT thinks of Gordon. I personally love his skillet next to KP and believe he would be a huge upgrade over Powell.
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I'd love to see the Mavs make a move this TDL to get the piece they want so that they can focus on retaining Rich and possibly THJ if he is not moved. They would also have MLE and the BAE to work with.
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(12-20-2020, 09:12 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: I'd love to see the Mavs make a move this TDL to get the piece they want so that they can focus on retaining Rich and possibly THJ if he is not moved. They would also have MLE and the BAE to work with.
This has been what I've been preaching for some time. Quite a few players have to leave the roster next summer in order to get space for the "possibility" of someone signing here. So, you are essentially "trading" those players for the player you hope to sign. There is a history of doing (or trying to do) the opposite and trading for someone in-season. They tried to send Barnes for Kemba prior to the Sacramento deal so we'd have the Bird rights on Kemba. We did actually trade for Noel prior to his becoming a RFA.
Common element in both cases...Excel. Schwartz was the agent for both Barnes and Kemba. Happy Walters (Excel) was the agent for Noel at the time. This coming summer the most prominent Excel client who is free is John Collins. Atlanta seems hesitant to go max for him. He was one of only four 20/10 guys in the NBA last season and shot 40% from three. He's close to Powell's level on screen assists and Roll Gravity, but can also pick and pop at a high level (envision the offense with Powell hitting 40% of his 3's and being a plus rebounder). Collins is not a perimeter defender. But, if you add those elements to Powell's offensive game (in a 23 year old body) the offense I'm not sure anyone is going to stop us offensively.
Why would Atlanta do it? They wouldn't unless they don't believe he's a $28mm guy. If they don't want to pay that, do they instead cash in now instead of waiting? Maxi/DFS for Collins/Snell is a money match that keeps us under the tax. DFS would be a fantastic fit as their starting SF (their biggest hole). Maxi would be a multi-dimensional big off the bench allowing Gallinari to start. I don't know what else would have to be added, but Maxi/DFS would help to balance their team. At that point you keep THJ and JRich (and even WCS) and roll out a starting lineup of KP/Collins/THJ/JRich/Luka backed up by WCS/Powell/Green/Burke/Brunson. It is a sizable bet because Maxi/DFS are good players. But so are the combination of guys who would have to leave to make a similar offer this summer that might be matched anyway.
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12-20-2020, 10:15 AM
(This post was last modified: 12-20-2020, 10:15 AM by omahen.)
(12-20-2020, 09:58 AM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: Collins
Collins would be great, but I think you are way, way, way below his price here. He is RFA so anyone who thinks he is woth max is in play, because you can control his future, he is not a half year rental. And a price for a 23 year old max guy is not a couple of role players. I would think it would take at least a good young player (let's hope Brunson plays great) and 1 FRP on top of Maxi, DFS.
Even at this price, it would be worth thinking about it. I guess it comes down to his character - can he play winning basketball, is he willing to put up effort on defense?
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I can't imagine Atlanta just giving up on Collins all of a sudden.
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(12-20-2020, 10:15 AM)omahen Wrote: Collins would be great, but I think you are way, way, way below his price here. He is RFA so anyone who thinks he is woth max is in play, because you can control his future, he is not a half year rental. And a price for a 23 year old max guy is not a couple of role players. I would think it would take at least a good young player (let's hope Brunson plays great) and 1 FRP on top of Maxi, DFS.
Even at this price, it would be worth thinking about it. I guess it comes down to his character - can he play winning basketball, is he willing to put up effort on defense?
I completely agree. There was a line somewhere in my post about not knowing what else would have to be added. There are the added questions of who else might bid against us and might Atlanta be better served waiting until the summer. This only works if they don't want to pay him the max. His max is "only" $28mm and with all the cap space floating around in 21, someone will do it (NYK).
He is a Schwartz guy and this kind of move is in the Schwartz/Dallas playbook. Oladipo seems more likely, but I wouldn't dismiss this entirely. Schwartz's job is to get Collins the max and secondarily to put him in the best position possible to succeed for his next contract. If that won't happen in Atl., then he'll do what he can to move him somewhere else. Hollinger has Collins projected as a $20mm guy and C Wood got a deal starting at $13 for a somewhat comparable skill set. So, it isn't a sure thing at all that Atlanta will want to pay the max.
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12-20-2020, 12:29 PM
(This post was last modified: 12-20-2020, 12:30 PM by omahen.)
(12-20-2020, 12:06 PM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: I completely agree. There was a line somewhere in my post about not knowing what else would have to be added. There are the added questions of who else might bid against us and might Atlanta be better served waiting until the summer. This only works if they don't want to pay him the max. His max is "only" $28mm and with all the cap space floating around in 21, someone will do it (NYK).
He is a Schwartz guy and this kind of move is in the Schwartz/Dallas playbook. Oladipo seems more likely, but I wouldn't dismiss this entirely. Schwartz's job is to get Collins the max and secondarily to put him in the best position possible to succeed for his next contract. If that won't happen in Atl., then he'll do what he can to move him somewhere else. Hollinger has Collins projected as a $20mm guy and C Wood got a deal starting at $13 for a somewhat comparable skill set. So, it isn't a sure thing at all that Atlanta will want to pay the max.
Unfortunately Atlanta has all the time they want to wait, as they can extend him anytime or match max offer in the summer, if someone offers it. So I guess they will wait till TDL to see how it works. If it looks great, they can offer max. If not, they might look for a trade.
My personal favorite would be White, IF we decide to move on from THJ. He shouldn't cost too much, perhaps something like Brunson+FRP would be enough. Btw - White is also Excel guy
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(12-20-2020, 12:06 PM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: Hollinger has Collins projected as a $20mm guy and C Wood got a deal starting at $13 for a somewhat comparable skill set.
Hollinger has been completly off this year and honestly also in recent years. Still the same problems that all his boxscore based metrics had (PER). Vastly overrating bigman and rebounding. He had Whiteside at 17.2 million. Ibaka at 5.5 million. Whiteside signed a vet min deal in Sacramento because no contender had any interest. Clippers gave Ibaka the full MLE.
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(12-20-2020, 12:54 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: Whiteside signed a vet min deal
I agree he was way off with his evaluation. Must be more than stats with Whiteside because Charlotte rather paid twice the money to Biyombo (who is certainly worse player), Washington paid 10 mil to the non shooting Lopez twin, Plumlee got 10 mil and similar. As for Ibaka - he did say that his salary will be MLE, not 5,5 mil as his tool calculated. Many of us here thought he will sign for 15-20 per.
On the other hand, he was basically spot on on Wood, Harrell, Favors and Poeltl.
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I am not a big Collins fan and don't think Mavs have the assets to get him anyway.
Also I am not trading Maxi for anybody who isn't a star. He is too important and his contract is great. I could see Mavs keeping him as a long term glue guy even after his contract ends.
DFS on the other hand only has one year left on his deal. His money is going to go way up and you might have some young guys who could be his longterm replacement. For that reason I would consider some trades where we net a starter.
Also any trade idea where we are trying to upgrade Powell probably need to include Powell outgoing. That could be a challenge which is why I do think it's unlikely to happen anytime soon.
One idea I like is Myles Turner. I previously resisted idea since he's more of a 5 in Rick's system but he is a 4/5 hybrid type similar to Powell. Myles Turner makes a lot more and just doesn't have the upside or market value he had once upon a time.
The trade for the Mavs would be to get a better version of what Powell brings. For the Pacers they might like Powell as a cheaper version of what they have in Turner. I am sure they'd rather have Maxi but I would not give up Maxi for Turner.
I might give up DFS or some other asset if I was convinced he could do all the offensive things plus play better defense and shoot from outside.
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