2024 Playoffs- 4th Round: Boston Celtics - Dallas Mavericks

[Chicagojk]

I think Lively attempting threes is definitely on the future roadmap. Although, I am not sure Luka with the ball in the paint and Lively at the rim (and everyone else spread) is not the more feared position for teams. I also think continued playmaking improvement and the ability to switch onto ball handlers is also probably more important than shooting threes for Lively.

Last night, I watched a 30 minute highlights package of lobs over the last two months. Imagine that....30 minutes. That would have been pretty blah last year watching Powell, Maxi and others do alley oops. Now we have 30 minutes of highlights over the past 2 months. We put so much pressure on teams by having a genius with the ball in his hands and guys that punish the rim. Luka thrives in that crowded space. It is either him getting a shot, passing for a open three or a dunk. It is really hard to guard and I think Gafford and Lively play a major role in this.

[Halfnir]

The league out oop'd the Mavs 59 to 54

Mavs will probably out-OOP the rest of the playoff teams after the finals are played. They just need 1 more than Boston over 5 games.

[fifteenth]

I think Lively attempting threes is definitely on the future roadmap.  Although, I am not sure Luka with the ball in the paint and Lively at the rim (and everyone else spread) is not the more feared position for teams.  I also think continued playmaking improvement and the ability to switch onto ball handlers is also probably more important than shooting threes for Lively.

Last night, I watched a 30 minute highlights package of lobs over the last two months.  Imagine that....30 minutes.  That would have been pretty blah last year watching Powell, Maxi and others do alley oops.  Now we have 30 minutes of highlights over the past 2 months.  We put so much pressure on teams by having a genius with the ball in his hands and guys that punish the rim.  Luka thrives in that crowded space.  It is either him getting a shot, passing for a open three or a dunk.  It is really hard to guard and I think Gafford and Lively play a major role in this.

My guess is that the evolution would be that the Mavs eventually are able to play either way depending on the need. Maybe in 6 months we'll remember that pundits and fans were speculating about this.

[michaeltex]

Speaking of Lively hitting 3s...

This was him after practice today. As the tweet says, sky's the limit for real. 

https://twitter.com/pandahank41/status/1...0592223307

IIRC, didn't Lively put on a 3pt show during the pre-draft combine?

Maybe a secret weapon?

[SleepingHero]

https://twitter.com/dallasmavs/status/17...7014393198


Mavs got freaking Patrick Mahomes to narrate their hype video. LETS GO!

[fifteenth]

Let's. Freaking. Go.

[OBX Maverick]

Don’t recall seeing this on here before. If so, forgive me. If not, enjoy! 

Go Mavs!!!

[HoosierDaddyKidd]

This is my last word on this series before game 1 also. I was coming hear to say that and there you are.  

Anyway, I've been thinking a lot about the 5 out system that Rick had running there in Dallas and how Kidd went away from it. I think I know why. I think it's the reason that the Indiana series was closer than Boston probably would have liked.

The problem is that you can't play the level of defense that's needed to win when it gets tight. Stops are harder to come by. It does spread the floor and leave lanes open to the rim.

I think Dallas will be smart to play like they have been. You are correct in saying that Boston has the best 5 out roster we've seen. The problem is the system.

What makes 5 out work for Boston in the regular season and look so incredible from an analytic standpoint is that they drive the lane due to all of that space and it gets those guys a few easy buckets which gets them hitting the 3s. Boston has pulled away from teams late in the 3rd or early in the 4th all year. That's when they start feeling the shots falling and hitting the 3s.

The big con is that it just doesn't allow much movement in 5 out and it tends to stagnate a lot. Everyone is already spread, so, outside of a pick where will the movement come from? They end up running a ton of iso which works great in the regular season against bad teams but becomes more difficult when the playoffs come and teams get more physical and the competition level is much higher. Boston and Dallas were both in the top 3 this year for iso play. However, Dallas runs it slightly different where they are running off of a P&R most of the time which leaves open shooters to pass out to as the defense collapses. Dallas also incorporates a good bit of cutting as well similar to Denver.

That's why when Boston played a team like OKC, Minnesota, Denver, etc it was tougher for them to get going. They weren't that great against WC teams above .500. In fact, they lost both games to Denver. On offense Denver lives out of the P&R and getting guys running downhill kicking out to open shooters. Jokic also is able to find open shooters the way Luka is in creating opportunities through passing.

Another thing with Boston is that they struggle defending the P&R. Physical teams are a problem for Boston. They are also easy to get rebounds on and get behind the defense in transition which Ky and Luka love to do. Also, if KP isn't 100% healthy (and I don't think he is) it's going to open up the paint for Dallas to drive. And they will drive at will.

I think these things I pointed out are the same reason Rick had trouble getting out of the first round in the West after winning the title. They won the title as a P&R heavy physical team with Dirk, Jet, and Kidd driving the paint kicking out to open shooters. They played physical defense and made sure nothing was easy. It wasn't until later that he went to more of the D'antoni 5 out style of play. He almost got out of the first round a couple of times but could never get over the hump.

The East is easier since the bottom half of the playoff field wouldn't even be in the playoffs in the WC.

It's a great system in the regular season to get easy wins but when you are up against opponents that make your shots tough it gets difficult to run. When you are winded from playing against a physical team shots start falling flat. That and you are now getting heavily contested shots while the other team is getting lobs, put backs, and layups.

I am not saying it will be an easy series. It will be right up there with the OKC series I believe. Dallas wins in 6 in my book. But, I don't think the 5 out as a system can win it all. Not against a talented and physical team. Same reason why D'Antoni could never get it done. When you get into the playoffs it becomes all about hard fouls, getting stops, and easier buckets. Teams can use all of their energy because they don't have 80 games left.

Side note: A perfect reason as to why I'm not an analytics guy. WCF series against Minnesota +/- for Luka.
He was ON the floor for 201 minutes and the team had a 114.7 offensive rating.
When he was OFF the floor for 39 minutes the team had a 125 offensive rating.

Analytics say the team was better with Luka OFF the floor. That's just one more reason why I think this series is a mental set up for Boston.

Good points, but we can't say it won't work until this series ends. I'm sure both teams will make adjustments if it does and doesn't. If that's the case, how come the Warriors won titles playing the same way, 5 out? Just asking.

[BigDirk41]

IIRC, didn't Lively put on a 3pt show during the pre-draft combine?

Maybe a secret weapon?

Yeah I think he hit 14 in a row or something like that.

[fifteenth]

Lot's of Mavs and Celtics in this look back at the playoffs so far.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qPBNK20K09o

[ballsrchr]

This is my last word on this series before game 1 also. I was coming hear to say that and there you are.  

Anyway, I've been thinking a lot about the 5 out system that Rick had running there in Dallas and how Kidd went away from it. I think I know why. I think it's the reason that the Indiana series was closer than Boston probably would have liked.

The problem is that you can't play the level of defense that's needed to win when it gets tight. Stops are harder to come by. It does spread the floor and leave lanes open to the rim.

I think Dallas will be smart to play like they have been. You are correct in saying that Boston has the best 5 out roster we've seen. The problem is the system.

What makes 5 out work for Boston in the regular season and look so incredible from an analytic standpoint is that they drive the lane due to all of that space and it gets those guys a few easy buckets which gets them hitting the 3s. Boston has pulled away from teams late in the 3rd or early in the 4th all year. That's when they start feeling the shots falling and hitting the 3s.

The big con is that it just doesn't allow much movement in 5 out and it tends to stagnate a lot. Everyone is already spread, so, outside of a pick where will the movement come from? They end up running a ton of iso which works great in the regular season against bad teams but becomes more difficult when the playoffs come and teams get more physical and the competition level is much higher. Boston and Dallas were both in the top 3 this year for iso play. However, Dallas runs it slightly different where they are running off of a P&R most of the time which leaves open shooters to pass out to as the defense collapses. Dallas also incorporates a good bit of cutting as well similar to Denver.

That's why when Boston played a team like OKC, Minnesota, Denver, etc it was tougher for them to get going. They weren't that great against WC teams above .500. In fact, they lost both games to Denver. On offense Denver lives out of the P&R and getting guys running downhill kicking out to open shooters. Jokic also is able to find open shooters the way Luka is in creating opportunities through passing.

Another thing with Boston is that they struggle defending the P&R. Physical teams are a problem for Boston. They are also easy to get rebounds on and get behind the defense in transition which Ky and Luka love to do. Also, if KP isn't 100% healthy (and I don't think he is) it's going to open up the paint for Dallas to drive. And they will drive at will.

I think these things I pointed out are the same reason Rick had trouble getting out of the first round in the West after winning the title. They won the title as a P&R heavy physical team with Dirk, Jet, and Kidd driving the paint kicking out to open shooters. They played physical defense and made sure nothing was easy. It wasn't until later that he went to more of the D'antoni 5 out style of play. He almost got out of the first round a couple of times but could never get over the hump.

The East is easier since the bottom half of the playoff field wouldn't even be in the playoffs in the WC.

It's a great system in the regular season to get easy wins but when you are up against opponents that make your shots tough it gets difficult to run. When you are winded from playing against a physical team shots start falling flat. That and you are now getting heavily contested shots while the other team is getting lobs, put backs, and layups.

I am not saying it will be an easy series. It will be right up there with the OKC series I believe. Dallas wins in 6 in my book. But, I don't think the 5 out as a system can win it all. Not against a talented and physical team. Same reason why D'Antoni could never get it done. When you get into the playoffs it becomes all about hard fouls, getting stops, and easier buckets. Teams can use all of their energy because they don't have 80 games left.

Side note: A perfect reason as to why I'm not an analytics guy. WCF series against Minnesota +/- for Luka.
He was ON the floor for 201 minutes and the team had a 114.7 offensive rating.
When he was OFF the floor for 39 minutes the team had a 125 offensive rating.

Analytics say the team was better with Luka OFF the floor. That's just one more reason why I think this series is a mental set up for Boston.

Wow!  I'm really liking all the great thoughts and analyses of schemes and scenarios that have happened and may happen in the upcoming Championship series.  Though there are several great posts, this is what I'd go with.  I've already made my prediction of the Mavs in 6.

This has been such a great and informative thread that it's made me realize how primitive basketball was back when I played.  Aside from the fact that we used a pigskin ball stuffed with grass and played on a packed dirt court with one basket, our defensive scheme was to play the ball in what resembled a rugby scrum.  Offense was the first guy with the ball who broke out of the scrum and was able to lay up the ball.  No stuffing the ball back then.  We were all short and stocky--alright--maybe chubby would work for some of us.  Not me, of course.  I was a 5' 8" lean and muscular power forward...

Let's go Mavs...

[fifteenth]

Anyone want some Mavs history as we wait for 7:30pm?

Our beloved Mavs have had three eras of playoff basketball, the Ro/Harp era, the Dirk era and the Luka era.

Ro, Harp and co. made the playoffs 7 times in 10 years and made one, glorious WCF appearance.

Dirk and co. make the playoffs 15 times over 20 years, with 2 finals appearances and 1, historically great NBA championship.

Luka and co. have had 4 playoff runs in 6 years, with 2 WCF appearances and a wonderfully surprising and impressive NBA Finals appearance, outcome TBD.

So, that's...

44 years,
26 playoff appearances,
3 NBA Finals appearances,
an historically great championship,
and a wonderfully surprising and impressive chance for another!

LET'S GO MAVS!!

[bodhisattva]

In my village its like new years eve. Nobody sleeping. If you could measure workplace efficiency I bet we are way way down as a country. Just zombies walking around. This shit will kill me.

Go Mavs!

[michaeltex]

And after signing a gangly Wurtzburg, Germany ex-soccer goalie in 1999, the Mavs went 12 seasons of 50+ win seasons, including 2x 60 win seasons and on with 67!

TBH, I have a similar feeling about this current group.

GO MAVS!

[Berknip]

Anyone want some Mavs history as we wait for 7:30pm?

Our beloved Mavs have had three eras of playoff basketball, the Ro/Harp era, the Dirk era and the Luka era.

Ro, Harp and co. made the playoffs 7 times in 10 years and made one, glorious WCF appearance.

Dirk and co. make the playoffs 15 times over 20 years, with 2 finals appearances and 1, historically great NBA championship.

Luka and co. have had 4 playoff runs in 6 years, with 2 WCF appearances and a wonderfully surprising and impressive NBA Finals appearance, outcome TBD.

So, that's...

44 years,
26 playoff appearances,
3 NBA Finals appearances,
an historically great championship,
and a wonderfully surprising and impressive chance for another!

LET'S GO MAVS!!

...pretty impressive when you consider there are still 10 teams who have NEVER won a championship, 5 of whom have never even made it to the Finals.

[KillerLeft]

...pretty impressive when you consider there are still 10 teams who have NEVER won a championship, 5 of whom have never even made it to the Finals.

We are pretty lucky here in DFW, it’s true. 

Still, I understand why 95% of the country is rooting for the Mavs in this series. The citizens of Boston have had much more than their fair share of sports luck, regardless of how victimized they try to make themselves seem. The curse of the bambino ain’t got nothing on what it must be like to be a sports fan in Utah.

[Jmaciscool]

We are pretty lucky here in DFW, it’s true. 

Still, I understand why 95% of the country is rooting for the Mavs in this series. The citizens of Boston have had much more than their fair share of sports luck, regardless of how victimized they try to make themselves seem. The curse of the bambino ain’t got nothing on what it must be like to be a sports fan in Utah.

Mavs entering a finals as an underdog with the vast majority of the country's fans hoping the Mavs win?

Why does that sound so familiar...

[fifteenth]

Mavs entering a finals as an underdog with the vast majority of the country's fans hoping the Mavs win?

Why does that sound so familiar...

Wow, that's interesting. These playoffs started with the Mavs and Luka as a negative in the court of NBA fandom public opinion. They didn't come in as the darling. But they've won everyone (but Boston) over with their play and their perseverance.

[ballsrchr]

In my village its like new years eve. Nobody sleeping. If you could measure workplace efficiency I bet we are way way down as a country. Just zombies walking around. This shit will kill me.

Go Mavs!

I normally take a 3 hour nap in the afternoon, so I can stay up to watch the game.  Actually...stay up for anything!  I laid down, but couldn't sleep.  I got up.  I'm ready!

I was born in the first half of the last century! Sounds old when you say it that way.

[audiosway]

I think Lively attempting threes is definitely on the future roadmap.  Although, I am not sure Luka with the ball in the paint and Lively at the rim (and everyone else spread) is not the more feared position for teams.  I also think continued playmaking improvement and the ability to switch onto ball handlers is also probably more important than shooting threes for Lively.

Last night, I watched a 30 minute highlights package of lobs over the last two months.  Imagine that....30 minutes.  That would have been pretty blah last year watching Powell, Maxi and others do alley oops.  Now we have 30 minutes of highlights over the past 2 months.  We put so much pressure on teams by having a genius with the ball in his hands and guys that punish the rim.  Luka thrives in that crowded space.  It is either him getting a shot, passing for a open three or a dunk.  It is really hard to guard and I think Gafford and Lively play a major role in this.

I agree. He is the future for Dallas at the 5. Him making 3s will open up what they can do so much. He will likely end up being the 3rd star I think. If he continues to grow as a player and adds a 3 point shot he will be unstoppable.

I'm not really so much worried about tonight. I figured tonight would be the Mavs trying to figure out how to play Boston. KP came out with something to prove. Kyrie didn't play well and neither did several other Mavs. It's a series/chessmatch. 1 game doesn't prove anything.