2024 Playoffs- 4th Round: Boston Celtics - Dallas Mavericks

[KillerLeft]

I agree with some of your points, Boston set records for offensive efficiency this season, but I think you're selling Boston's defense short. They finished 2nd behind Minnesota in defensive efficiency despite not having a lot of size. When they need stops, they find a way to get them. Should be a great series, let the chess match begin.

I agree they're a good defense. So was Minnesota. So was OKC. So was LAC. 

I just don't think that when the dust clears, Boston will even seem like the best of that gauntlet, personally. But, I could be wrong!

[HoosierDaddyKid]

I agree they're a good defense. So was Minnesota. So was OKC. So was LAC. 

I just don't think that when the dust clears, Boston will even seem like the best of that gauntlet, personally. But, I could be wrong!

Not the best of that gauntlet? I don't know how you can make that claim when Boston was head and shoulder's the best team in the NBA this year. They had one of the largest point differentials of any team in NBA history during the season. They also blew more twenty point leads as well. Maybe they get bored and take their foot off the gas. I don't have a clue. But that definitely can't happen vs this Mavs team for sure.

[Jmaciscool]

I think Mavs take game 1 because Celtics aren't ready based on their soft playoff schedule and KP is rusty as hell.

Boston takes game 2 in a fairly convincing fashion.

They split the Dallas home games too make it 2-2.

Dallas barely takes pivotal game 5 based on LuKai dominance.

Celtics feel the pressure and play tight in game 6 and the Mavs ride the home court to victory.

Mavs in 6.

[KillerLeft]

Not the best of that gauntlet? I don't know how you can make that claim when Boston was head and shoulder's the best team in the NBA this year. They had one of the largest point differentials of any team in NBA history during the season. They also blew more twenty point leads as well. Maybe they get bored and take their foot off the gas. I don't have a clue. But that definitely can't happen vs this Mavs team for sure.

I'm not making a claim. I'm making a tentative prediction about one aspect of the series, the Boston defense vs. the Mavs offense, and I'm doing so not based on regular season results, but an objective (as objective as possible, given my Mavs fandom) and informed (as informed as possible, given that I am not in pro basketball for a living) analysis about what I expect both teams to try and accomplish in that matchup.

As I've said, I believe the series will be won or lost when Boston has the ball.

[dirkfansince1998]

The claims here that Boston has more talent really grate on me. Go post that on a Celtics board. This is a super-talented Mavs team. And we’ll know soon enough who is more talented.

I’m also surprised that there isn’t more discussion of the Celt’s lack of size. Horford is an all-time great role player. But he’s 37. Zing has some real strengths. But also some huge weaknesses (known well on this board). Plus he’s not 100% (ever). And after these fellas, who’s gonna protect the rim? (Please tell me Luke Kornet! Oh please!)

Sure, 2 rim protectors ordinarily might seem like enough. But again, old, injured, and in Zing’s case soft. This against a 2-headed monster that sprints down the court every offensive possession and batters you on every possible rebound. Making it impossible to keep your legs into the 4th quarter and effectively killing the argument of those who might otherwise claim best-shooting-big-man status.

Chet from deep, regular season: 37%, conf semis: 22%.
KAT from deep, regular season: 42%, conf finals 24%.
Zing/Horford from deep, regular season: 38/42%, finals ???

Don’t even let me get started on Derrick White. An 8-year vet who only became an above-average shooter last year. And to this day is streaky as Hardaway Jr. Sure, he’s shot the ball well these playoffs. (In large part because Miami seemed to scheme for him to shoot 25 of em in the last 2 games of the first round.) But still, that incudes games in which he went 2/9 (Pacers gm 4), 2/8 (Pacers gm 3), 1/4 (Cavs gm 4), 1/8 (Cavs gm 2), 2/7 (Heat gm 3). So whatever. But sure, he’s a fine player.

As for keys to the series, I see just one. His name is Luka. He either supernovas or he doesn’t. In the biggest moment so far in an already very big career. Now, who wants to bet against that? Not me.

Go Mavs!

There is fandom. And there is blind homerism. Derrick White for example is their version of DJJ. Who would you rather have? The all defense wing that also averages 18/4/4. Is a 40% 3-point shooter and capable playmaker. Or DJJ?
I think even the most biased Celtics fans would admit that Luka is the best player in the series. I think Mavs fans should be able to admit that on paper Holiday/White/KP/Horford are clearly better than DJJ/PJ/Lively/Gafford.

Thankfully the series isn't played on paper. And the Mavs don't need to have a better 82 games season than Boston. Borderline impossible. They just need to beat them in a best of seven series. Difficult but I like the Mavs chances if we get the best version of Luka and Kyrie.

[Winter]

Not the best of that gauntlet? I don't know how you can make that claim when Boston was head and shoulder's the best team in the NBA this year. They had one of the largest point differentials of any team in NBA history during the season. They also blew more twenty point leads as well. Maybe they get bored and take their foot off the gas. I don't have a clue. But that definitely can't happen vs this Mavs team for sure.

I would argue that they are not "head and shoulder's the best team in the NBA this year." A team's record is a construct of their competition. Here's another way to look at it. If OKC had been in the Eastern Conference, I could easily imagine them winning 7 more games and being a 64-win team. 

Boston had losses to almost all the playoff teams in the west - Minnesota, Denver, LAC, OKC, Golden State, and the Lakers. Dallas and Phoenix were the lone exceptions. While Boston is the East's best team by far, I would argue that they merely get lumped with maybe five very good NBA teams playing at the end of the season. They are certainly not the 2017 Golden State Warriors or even last year's Denver team.

[dirkfansince1998]

I think the main reason why Boston isn't looking as unbeatable as other teams with similar records/playoff runs is that Tatum isn't the clear top five player in the league that most teams need to make it to the finals. And that makes it difficult to compare them to past teams. In a way they are the 04 Pistons with 4-5 allstar/borderline allstar level players but Tatum is better than any individual player on the 04 Pistons. On the other hand they aren't quite on the Warriors level because Curry was in the comparisation for best player in the league during their run. Tatum isn't.

[HoosierDaddyKidd]

https://x.com/ClutchPoints/status/179704...38?ref_src=




Joe Mazzulla on guarding Luka and Ky.

[HoosierDaddyKidd]

I would argue that they are not "head and shoulder's the best team in the NBA this year." A team's record is a construct of their competition. Here's another way to look at it. If OKC had been in the Eastern Conference, I could easily imagine them winning 7 more games and being a 64-win team. 

Boston had losses to almost all the playoff teams in the west - Minnesota, Denver, LAC, OKC, Golden State, and the Lakers. Dallas and Phoenix were the lone exceptions. While Boston is the East's best team by far, I would argue that they merely get lumped with maybe five very good NBA teams playing at the end of the season. They are certainly not the 2017 Golden State Warriors or even last year's Denver team.

Your opinion. You're entitled to it. As far as the conferences are concerned, The East doesn't have the depth the West does, that's pretty obvious. But you still have to play the team in front of you regardless. All the good teams you mentioned had the same or similar losses, some to even lesser teams. That's irrelevant. It's a long season. As far as comparing them with other championship teams, that story has yet to be written. I will say the pressure is on them to get it done after reaching the Finals two out of the last three years.

[daGuru1123]

I think Mavs take game 1 because Celtics aren't ready based on their soft playoff schedule and KP is rusty as hell.

Boston takes game 2 in a fairly convincing fashion.

They split the Dallas home games too make it 2-2.

Dallas barely takes pivotal game 5 based on LuKai dominance.

Celtics feel the pressure and play tight in game 6 and the Mavs ride the home court to victory.

Mavs in 6.

i actually think Mavs lose game 1 to Boston... . surprised that we won game 1 vs Minny . 

up until then it seemed a trend for Mavs to lose the first game for whatever reason. i dunno if it's a feel em out round one about us ... but we eventually settle and give the opposing team hell game 2 and on ... 

i even think there's a let up/off game with us ... did same with home losses to LAC, OK, and Minny... eefore we regrouped and close those teams out ...

[Winter]

 I will say the pressure is on them to get it done after reaching the Finals two out of the last three years.

Yeah, I've already heard that from Celtics fans and podcasters and the Finals haven't even started yet. 

If the Mavs win, I hope it's at home. Those fans are jazzed up.

[daGuru1123]

we have three thing s going for us Mavs team

1- the duo of Luka/Kyrie
2) the big centers of Lively and Gafford
3) and defensive length of Derrick Jones and PJ

we have minus going against us too,
1) erratic bench scoring with Hardy, Green.
2) lack of bench with useless Hardaway & Xam
that has cost us in games with past 3 teams. simple put if Luke/Ky go cold or injured- that's it
we simply do not have the bench to pull us thru a crisis.

[BigDirk41]

Hopefully Maxi can hit the 3 in the finals. That's the only way he can play meaningful minutes. With the injury being his shooting shoulder, I'm concerned about his shooting. Hopefully he's able to get reps in now at practice. He seemed pretty reluctant to shoot when he came back and understandably so. If he can't shoot, they'll load up on Luka. We can't have that. I 100% agree that we need his flexibility if we are going to win this series. Hopefully he can at least keep the defense honest. Him playing small ball 5 could possibly make the difference. It definitely helps if that's an option.

[The Jom]

There is fandom. And there is blind homerism. Derrick White for example is their version of DJJ. Who would you rather have? The all defense wing that also averages 18/4/4. Is a 40% 3-point shooter and capable playmaker. Or DJJ?
I think even the most biased Celtics fans would admit that Luka is the best player in the series. I think Mavs fans should be able to admit that on paper Holiday/White/KP/Horford are clearly better than DJJ/PJ/Lively/Gafford.

Thankfully the series isn't played on paper. And the Mavs don't need to have a better 82 games season than Boston. Borderline impossible. They just need to beat them in a best of seven series. Difficult but I like the Mavs chances if we get the best version of Luka and Kyrie.

If this is an argument that Boston has more talent, and if I’m the homer, we are ships passing in the night, my friend. 

Holiday is far and away the best player on your list. But I’m not convinced he’s their #3. More likely that guy is Jaylen Brown. 

Is White better than DJJ? Probably. But not by a mile. 

Horford is a great player. I just don’t think the old man can play 30 mins against our young, fast bigs. 

Is KP even a positive piece? I’d rather have Dinwiddie. Guess we’ll see.

[surfpuckmd]

The claims here that Boston has more talent really grate on me. Go post that on a Celtics board. This is a super-talented Mavs team. And we’ll know soon enough who is more talented.

I’m also surprised that there isn’t more discussion of the Celt’s lack of size. Horford is an all-time great role player. But he’s 37. Zing has some real strengths. But also some huge weaknesses (known well on this board). Plus he’s not 100% (ever). And after these fellas, who’s gonna protect the rim? (Please tell me Luke Kornet! Oh please!)

Sure, 2 rim protectors ordinarily might seem like enough. But again, old, injured, and in Zing’s case soft. This against a 2-headed monster that sprints down the court every offensive possession and batters you on every possible rebound. Making it impossible to keep your legs into the 4th quarter and effectively killing the argument of those who might otherwise claim best-shooting-big-man status.

Chet from deep, regular season: 37%, conf semis: 22%.
KAT from deep, regular season: 42%, conf finals 24%.
Zing/Horford from deep, regular season: 38/42%, finals ???

I really like this post.  We're bigger than the Celtics and I hope we take advantage of that.  I want to see 48 minutes of Gafford and Lively beating down Porzingis on offense the way they beat down Gobert.  I think an exhausted and frustrated Kristaps will struggle to hit 3 pointers.  At least that is my hope.  I want to win the rebounding battle.  The Celtics defense is outstanding but offensive rebounds really exhaust even the best defense.  I want Gafford and Lively to crash the offensive boards.  I want a lot of violent finishes.  I want Gafford to hurt a lot of feelings.  

I think Derrick White is pretty awesome and is a top-20 player in the NBA.  I don't think he's the weakest link.  I believe Jaylen Brown is somewhat overrated.  I think he's a 3rd-tier star.  I want them to run the offense through Jaylen Brown.  Of their starting five, he's the one I'd choose to leave open from distance.   Let Jaylen Brown shoot 10 3s per game.  

I want PJ Washington to play Tatum as physical as possible.  Then I want to see Josh Green harass him like a squirrel on methamphetamine.  I want us to win the energy battle.  I'd like Kidd to substitute frequently.  I want quick bursts of Hardy, Exum, Green and Maxi-  3 minutes at a time.  Rotate Gafford and Lively like football teams rotate defensive tackles.  I'd like Kidd to be creative and break conventional wisdom.  Play 10 players rather than 8 like every other team does.  Substitute backups for other backups.  Rotate constantly.  

Let Kyrie run the show more on offense and have Luka play a bit more off-ball.   Luka is bigger and stronger than any Celtic starter.  Have him set a few hard screens.  Let's also post-up Luka more.  

I hope this is the series where Jason Kidd proves that he's a great coach and I'm an idiot for criticizing him for so long.  I want lots of creativity and weirdness.  We're the clear underdogs so let's change the game a bit.

[OBX Maverick]

I really question how much Porzingis is going to contribute in this series. First of all, with the injury he has, there is a decent chance he aggravates it given his history. Secondly, from what I’ve seen of him over the years, he needs to get in a groove from the 3 point line to get rolling. I doubt that he consistently is able to do that coming off injury. I agree that we need to wear him and Horford out underneath with our bigs. We will have to give up some inside defensive presence by putting a big out on the perimeter with Porzingis/Horford, but it’s worth the price if we can punish them on offense. Whoever plays the chess match better on O might ultimately determine how this series plays out. It’s gonna be fun!

This is almost like a Super Bowl build up with the week off. I don’t recall there ever being a gap like this before where neither team was playing. We sure as heck needed it…

[Chicagojk]

Man, I have said this several times, but the Celtics fans are so annoying. The thing is they have every right to be. Their team is really good and I think the best team throughout the season. It will be so awesome to win though. Most of their fans are not even considering they have a chance to lose this series.

[Winter]

Man, I have said this several times, but the Celtics fans are so annoying.  The thing is they have every right to be.  Their team is really good and I think the best team throughout the season.  It will be so awesome to win though.  Most of their fans are not even considering they have a chance to lose this series.

Not sure why, but I am reminded of late 1980's Chicago Bears fans. The deserve their own SNL skit.

[Jannemann2]

Liked Jason Kidd's interview from yesterday's press conference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aa0WdB_J_V4

[edit: and DLive has a little basketball poet in him :-)]

[Radical Mavs]

What would you guys take from the last game we played against Boston? We had the same team as now and they did beat us badly and we couldn't guard the 3-point line. I know we are a different team now with a better understanding of assignment. Based on this, what would you do differently from that game in these finals?