11-14-2023, 10:04 AM
MAVS NEWS: Luka: "I feel good"| D-Live's Mom Passes Away | Nico Gets Extension
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11-14-2023, 10:05 AM
(This post was last modified: 11-14-2023, 10:15 AM by DanSchwartzgan.)
(11-14-2023, 10:02 AM)Mavs2021 Wrote: I didn´t say he sucks, but I´m not the one trying to prop him up to be more than he is. He´s a back-up, probably 3rd string, center. I don´t need any justifcation for paying him $4M. That´s perfectly fine money. But it´s always this attempt to prop him up to be more than he is, like the 44/4 premature contract extension. Actually Net Rating is the only thing that matters to...you know...actually winning. Cause to win you actually have to score points and get stops at crucial points in the game. And that is probably true about Cuban's Grandma as long as her surname isn't German.
11-14-2023, 10:27 AM
(11-14-2023, 09:38 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I originally picked up Luka/Kyrie/GWill minutes which had me looking in the wrong place for Powell. Since I've posted wrong numbers, here is what NBA.com has for Kyrie/Luka 3-man lineups with a center. And that right there is the key number. Also sadly Maxi has been a huge problem this season, but he still has a good reputation around the league as an impactful defender, when healthy. Question is whether he´ll ever be healthy again. I think if the Mavs use their 2027 1st round pick it will be with Maxi/Holmes not THJ.
11-14-2023, 10:37 AM
(11-14-2023, 10:27 AM)Mavs2021 Wrote: And that right there is the key number. Finally we agree on something (what we'll pair the 2027 pick with if traded). That 114.8 is still better than the team's overall D-Rating and Dallas is once again positive in the Powell minutes this season (7th season in a row). You mentioned last season earlier. No other center (Wood -1.3, Maxi -2.8, McGee -7.4) could say that. I don't know why people insist on taking shots at Powell. It is constant and the reason other people feel compelled to defend him. If we win the minutes he plays, it's a good thing. Thank God we finally have another center whose minutes we also win.
11-14-2023, 10:55 AM
(11-14-2023, 10:05 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Actually Net Rating is the only thing that matters to...you know...actually winning. Cause to win you actually have to score points and get stops at crucial points in the game. No it´s not the only thing that matters, cause it´s an average rating of all your games played against varying degrees of opposition with varying degrees of playing partners. By your logic I find five players that have a positive net rating, play each 48 MPG and they´ll go 82-0 regardless of the opponents quality. Sometimes you have to apply some common sense to interpret numbers like when Luka has started all games, Kyrie has started all games he played (8 of 10) and Dwight Powell has started one game, all I need is to check whether Kyrie has played in the game Powell started to know they must have played together. Also common sense tells me that if Luka plays 36 MPG, Kyrie plays 34 MPG and Powell plays 19 MPG, it´s highly likely that the minutes of the three will have overlapped at some point in a 48 minute game, considering that they all play different positions.
11-14-2023, 11:06 AM
(11-14-2023, 10:27 AM)Mavs2021 Wrote: And that right there is the key number. So the crux of your argument is a 41 minute sample? I kind of get the Powell bashing when he was starting, but it makes a lot less sense now. It will be interesting if we do acquire a typical backup center who can rebound and protect the paint a little better than Powell. I wonder if folks will praise that player as what we really needed as our net rating in those minutes goes down.
11-14-2023, 11:06 AM
Careful there, dude. You have a point about Dwight’s D. But Dan isn’t illogical and you sound really extreme in attacking his valid counterpoints.
Pessimism doesn’t make you smart, just pessimistic.
11-14-2023, 11:12 AM
(11-14-2023, 01:21 AM)Mavs2021 Wrote: Great listen here for all my Powell haters.So you're saying Luka and Kyrie are good defenders?
11-14-2023, 11:16 AM
(11-14-2023, 10:55 AM)Mavs2021 Wrote: No it´s not the only thing that matters, cause it´s an average rating of all your games played against varying degrees of opposition with varying degrees of playing partners. By your logic I find five players that have a positive net rating, play each 48 MPG and they´ll go 82-0 regardless of the opponents quality. This is the whole point of advanced stats like EPM and DPM. They look at who was on the court when that player was on the court, both teammates and opponents. On off numbers are very noisy (especially in the sample sizes you are using to make your point) so they include some box score stats to help stabilize the numbers. You would think using box score stats would kill Powell as he does not get the rebound or block numbers folks are looking for. And yet year after year (read large sample) his numbers suggest he has a much better impact on the court than folks give him credit for. He is a very limited player with a high motor and a high BBIQ. He doesn't turn the ball over, sets great screens, is crazy efficient on offense and plays good P&R defense. All of that helps to offset his limitations rebounding and rim defense. It seems like a decent tradeoff for a backup center making 4 mil a year.
11-14-2023, 11:26 AM
(11-14-2023, 11:06 AM)The Jom Wrote: Careful there, dude. You have a point about Dwight’s D. But Dan isn’t illogical and you sound really extreme in attacking his valid counterpoints. Numbers are just raw data. If I played with Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, Lebron James and Wilt Chamberlain against five Dwight Powell´s we´d win every game by 50 points. Does that mean I´m a better basketball player than Dwight Powell, cause my net rating would sure look very sexy. My basic stat line would probably look like 0/0/0/0/0 with eight turnovers. 90% of the points scored by the Dwights were on me, but eye test and basic stats are generally overrated analytical tools. I can see what Powell brings to the table. I don´t need a positive or negative net rating to tell me that. He´s good defending in space. He works hard. He rarely makes mistakes and keeping the defense connected, but he offers zero rim protection (pyhsically or psychologically) or rebounding against fundamentally elite level opposition. And with the Mavs he is not helped by the fact that we generally are always on the smalller unathletic side to begin with.
11-14-2023, 11:34 AM
Powell is a C because of his offensive skillset. Problem is on defense, Powell is a hustling PF. That is why he and Maxi were such a great combo early in their career. Maxi made up for the rim protection that Powell lacked and rebounding against bench bigs was easier than against the starters. Maxi plays defense like an offball shot blocking PF.
Problem has always been (with both) when they go up against players that play with force. For all the bulk the two have, they are really weak at keeping bigs from getting to the spot they want to go. I think this is what Nico was referring to. That is also not a Lively strength either. This is why I would love to get Stewart as a Maxi replacement. Although lately I’ve been thinking about rehashing the Collins campaign, now that his shot seems to be back on track.
11-14-2023, 11:42 AM
(11-14-2023, 11:26 AM)Mavs2021 Wrote: Numbers are just raw data. If I played with Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, Lebron James and Wilt Chamberlain against five Dwight Powell´s we´d win every game by 50 points. Does that mean I´m a better basketball player than Dwight Powell, cause my net rating would sure look very sexy. While its not a good idea to focus entirely on analytics, is also not a good idea to focus entirely on the "eye test". Its not only that none of us are NBA scouts, but the really hard part is to determine how important certain skills are on the court. Your last paragraph is a fairly good assessment of who Powell is as a player, but what does that mean? How big are those tradeoffs? I was a long time Powell hater as he looks like he gets regularly abused on the defensive end and doesn't do much but occasionally dunk on the offensive end. It took a long time for analytics to convince me that he provides more value than what the eye test suggests.
11-14-2023, 11:45 AM
(This post was last modified: 11-14-2023, 11:47 AM by SleepingHero.)
Quote:https://twitter.com/GrantAfseth/status/1...2152423591 Hearing Josh continue to say nice things about Kyrie makes me happy. I have PTSD that something may go wrong but so far I may have to eat all the crow in the entire universe.
14x All-Star, 12x all-NBA, 1x MVP, 1x Finals MVP, 1 NBA Championship: Dirk Nowitzki, the man, the myth, the legend.
11-14-2023, 11:55 AM
(11-14-2023, 11:45 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: https://twitter.com/GrantAfseth/status/1...2152423591 That´s great to hear. Let´s hope it stays that way. Also it seems pretty obvious what the key is here. Aussie mates. In Cleveland he had Dellavedova. It wasn´t LeBron that kept Kyrie sane. It was Crocodile Dova. Now he has Josh and Exum. Let´s plan the parade.
11-14-2023, 11:59 AM
(11-14-2023, 11:45 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: Hearing Josh continue to say nice things about Kyrie makes me happy. I have PTSD that something may go wrong but so far I may have to eat all the crow in the entire universe. I think if we have issues with Kyrie, it wont be in the locker room. For some reason I am less worried about it than I probably should be. Maybe its the contract he signed.
11-14-2023, 12:12 PM
(11-13-2023, 11:34 PM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: https://newsletter.threefourtwo.com/p/dw...-mavericks This was a great read - thanks for posting!
11-14-2023, 01:13 PM
11-14-2023, 02:14 PM
(11-14-2023, 01:13 PM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: https://x.com/sherlot21/status/1724449231765967174?s=46 That's crazy is true. Good for Luka.
11-14-2023, 02:37 PM
(11-14-2023, 01:13 PM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: https://x.com/sherlot21/status/1724449231765967174?s=46 The text for those who don't have twitter and can't see the tweet: Quote:A nice nugget from
14x All-Star, 12x all-NBA, 1x MVP, 1x Finals MVP, 1 NBA Championship: Dirk Nowitzki, the man, the myth, the legend.
11-14-2023, 02:47 PM
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