(05-09-2021, 10:20 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: The Decision

I'm struggling to decide if I want to keep thinking through two alternative off-seasons (one with and one without KP) or just focus on one version or the other.  I'm not devoted to either camp.  I do think the team has greater upside if it can make KP work.  Even this season we are elite offensively when KP and Luka share the floor.  I also worry that we will never get a full healthy playoff run out of him.  And that is before considering the whole "do they get along" thing.


So goes KP, so goes the team

I was playing around at various stat sites and noticed that KP is +13.7 in Wins and -17.4 in Losses.  Most players are better in wins than losses, but a 31 point change in net rating his huge.  KP's O/D Ratings are 122/107 in Wins and 105/119 in losses.  Dr. Jekyll, meet Mr. Hyde.  

Breaking it down further, KP has been a net neutral or positive in 21 of the 40 games he's played.  Dallas is 20-1 in those games and the one loss is a one point loss to Phoenix on Feb. 1st.  The wins include POR, SAS, MIL, NYK, BOS, ATL, LAC, SAS, BRK, IND, MEM, GS, CHO and DEN among the top 10 in each conference.  So, they aren't all against weaker sisters.  Basically, if KP wins his time on the floor, Dallas does also.

We have won only four of the 19 games where KP has been a net negative for the game.  Basically, it is hard to overcome a night of negative floor time from KP 

We have played 27 games w/o KP and we are 15-12 in those games.  So, we are a .555 team without him and a .600 team with him.  Now, that is way too simplistic because you'd have to look at what else was going on in those 12 w/o KP losses.  I'd also like to know more about the 15 losses where KP was a net negative.  Who else were we missing?   But, what makes me want to lean toward keeping KP is that 20-1 record when he's not a net negative.  How do I sign up for more of that.  BTW, last season we lost 1/3 of the 33 games where he was neutral or positive.  Comparing this season to KP's career, this is the only time his On Minus Off has been negative.


What happened to the D

We all know the issue this season is at the defensive end.   As they say, "it is a game of runs".  We've had stretches were we are top 7 or 8 and we've had stretches where we are about the worst D in the league.  Dallas gives up 117.8 with KP on the court and only 110.2 when he's off.  But, he ranks 46th in the NBA in Net PER.  So, he dominates the production of his direct opponent while simultaneously killing our D at the same time?  Again, COVID and injuries probably cloud this picture.  But, it is super inconsistent.  It is hard to look at data and figure out what is happening.  The team is great in his two best lineups (Luka/JRich/DFS/Maxi/KP is +13  O/D = 127/114.  Brunson/JRich/THJ/DFS/KP is +18   O/D = 132/114).  The next three most used lineups have D Ratings of 137, 120 and 157.  Does is matter?  This season a team's D-Rating has a .546 correlation to winning while O-Rating has a .848 correlation to winning.  


Its raining 3's.  

We win when we win the 3 point battle.  The best 3% allowed two-man pairings are when KP plays with Maxi and WCS.  In fact, the only positive Net 3% (Own 3% minus Opponent 3%) is also when KP is with either Maxi or WCS.  It makes no sense because you would think those pairings would be bad at protecting the perimeter.  As it turns out opponent points are highest when KP is paired with DFS.  Opponent 3% is highest with KP/Luka followed by KP/DFS among pairs involving KP.

If you look at pre-post all star splits for the team, the biggest (almost only) difference between being slightly negative pre and +5 post in net rating is our own 3% shooting which is about 2 1/2 percent better post.  That corresponds to KP shooting better post all-star at .376 vs. pre all-star at .349.


Missing Maxi and fixing the Pick and Roll

This is where the rubber meets the road.  I've mentioned that we've had stretches where our D is one of the best in the league.  Overall we are 7th in the league in opponent FG% and 11th in opponent 3%.  I've also mentioned the D-Rating is fantastic at 107 in KP games we win.  The question is how to prevent the abysmal D-Rating we have when KP plays and we lose.  One answer is a healthy Maxi.  Of KP's 12 worst personal +/- (all with a +/- of -6 or worse), Maxi missed 7 of them.  Maxi is KP's best two-man lineup pairing at +8.1.  No one else is close.  Take Maxi away and KP is a worse version of himself.

The issue is probably PnR D.  Dallas is 26th in the league in dealing with the ball handler in PnR situations at 0.927 points per possession.  That balloons to 1.051 if Luka and KP are on the floor together (Mav's Moneyball 4/29).  Ouch.  I don't know if Defense Wins Championships, but history says you can't be bad a D and win a championship and good PnR teams kill us when our two stars are on the court together.  It is so bad that it wipes out how good we are offensively with the two of them together.  We just don't have enough help to cover up this weakness.  One of the reasons Powell's team defensive data is good is he can drop and get back to his assignment quickly.  KP can't and everything breaks down around him when others help.  Maxi seems to be the best helper as he has some ability to protect the rim without getting killed on the perimeter.  We play more of a switching style when KP is out.  This isn't great as teams can hunt Luka.  Part of Green's success comes in these situations.  He's fantastic at helping while not losing the ability to recover back to his own man.  His instincts are special (a topic for another day).  BTW, THJ isn't good at PnR Defense and it is hard to generate enough offence without at least two of Luka, THJ and KP on the floor.


So, what to do?

I'm still left with the same question of what to do.  I think the team probably wants to make KP work.  It will take more depth and another Maxi-like player.  Lineup data shows our starters aren't the issue.  But, a huge percentage of our minutes are Luka sans KP and KP sans Luka and even a few minutes without either.  THJ is our de facto third star and plays with both Luka and KP and some portion of the bench.  He isn't good enough for this role and certainly isn't good enough when both stars sit.  But, we also have a depth issue.  We could platoon more and keep our highly effective starting unit together if we could field a bench unit that stands on its own.  But, we can't keep everyone healthy and even when we do, we are a couple players shy of a stand-alone bench.

Or, do you move on from KP.  It is certainly easy to see improve defense without him.  Heck, we already have it when he's not on the floor.  Imagine if we added some D in a KP trade or in free agency.  KP would be harder to replace offensively, but we don't have to be tops in the league, just good.  With Luka, you will always bee good.  Could we add a rim-runner defender to Powell/WCS and have someone like that on the floor all the time?  Yes.  Could we find a stretch four and have one of him and Maxi on the floor at all times?  Yes.  Could we find another shot creator to start at SG?  Yes.  How about an aging vet who can score some to help out the bench.  It isn't hard to imagine all of that given the resources we have...and none of those roles have to be filled by stars to improve the team.

The question is what is that team's peak versus the peak of a team that retains KP and does a better job of filling in the obvious gaps.

(05-09-2021, 11:15 AM)dynamicalVoid Wrote: Nice write.

I keep saying this...and I will keep saying this...

We have to see these guys in a playoff atmosphere.

Am I just way off base with this notion?

I get that the Mavs have a group of mathematicians they hire to track reg season stats...but how much weight can you put into that stuff?

Example:  I was in a convo with some people about KP...they seem to think we will see different version of KP in playoffs.   More aggressive rim rolling and more aggressive on defense.   

I agree with this.   It suggests that there is a different gear that can be reached.   I cant put weight into stats that I assume are stats arrived at on a less than top gear performance.

This doesnt even include what a team can do when given the green light to play at their absolute most organized state.   Whos to say that the Mavs starting five AS A UNIT - WITH THE GREEN LIGHT isnt a monster.   Sure...maybe Joel Imbiid individually kills KP as a player...but maybe KP gels with this unit.

I get that you have to look at stats to try and improve your starting five numbers(example = lets trade our 45% FG Shooting Guard for this other Shooting Guard with 58% FG percentage)...but I want to see what the UNIT can do in playoff atmosphere.   Or...I want to see the guys you talk about trading IN A PLAYOFF ATMOSPHERE before discussing 3rd gear reg season stats.   Theyre pointless, imo.

(05-09-2021, 11:24 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: This suggests that KP himself is intentionally not going as hard as he can during the season. Either that or someone is forcing him to play that way. I think that is very far from his nature as a player, either way.


We heard DFS’s rally cry to the team after the Brooklyn win. I think the more realistic thought is that his play and hustle depends on the way he perceives the game is going to go. If he feels frozen out while on the court, it snowballs downward from there and becomes hard to get out of.

That, to me, makes more sense of the stats pointed to from Dan.

(05-09-2021, 11:33 AM)dynamicalVoid Wrote: Everyone talks about how K Leonard has a different gear in the playoffs.  This implies he could go harder in reg season games.  KP cant?

(05-09-2021, 11:24 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: We heard DFS’s rally cry to the team after the Brooklyn win. I think the more realistic thought is that his play and hustle depends on the way he perceives the game is going to go. If he feels frozen out while on the court, it snowballs downward from there and becomes hard to get out of.

That, to me, makes more sense of the stats pointed to from Dan.

(05-09-2021, 10:20 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Breaking it down further, KP has been a net neutral or positive in 21 of the 40 games he's played.  Dallas is 20-1 in those games and the one loss is a one point loss to Phoenix on Feb. 1st.  The wins include POR, SAS, MIL, NYK, BOS, ATL, LAC, SAS, BRK, IND, MEM, GS, CHO and DEN among the top 10 in each conference.  So, they aren't all against weaker sisters.  Basically, if KP wins his time on the floor, Dallas does also.

We have won only four of the 19 games where KP has been a net negative for the game.  Basically, it is hard to overcome a night of negative floor time from KP 

(05-09-2021, 10:20 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: The question is what is that team's peak versus the peak of a team that retains KP and does a better job of filling in the obvious gaps.

(05-09-2021, 12:56 PM)Kammrath Wrote: I 100% think KP massively under-performing his contract is the singular reason this team won't have homecourt in the playoffs and won't have a puncher's chance in the playoffs.

(05-09-2021, 03:14 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Lots of good thoughts...a few responses:

Coasting, especially on D?  Yeah, that is certainly a possibility.

Need to see this team in a playoff atmosphere before jumping to conclusions?  Yeah, absolutely.  

TiTY's Suggestion of inserting Josh Green as a starter next season.  This is part of what it might take to make KP and Luka work defensively.  The most striking numbers that I wrote (to me) were the 20-1 result when KP is net neutral or net positive and how bad the Luka/KP pairing are at PnR defense.  IF (pauses for emphasis), IF KP is to be kept, we have to figure out how to more consistently get positive on-court games out of KP and fixing the PnR D is probably the key.

S-Hero:  Thanks for the compliment.  I think there is an approach to this that wouldn't require a guy at the level you are suggesting.  But everyone, 2-9 has to be of a certain quality.  In some ways adding that 1A or #2 guy makes improving 7-9 more difficult.

Kamm:  I liked your line about replacing KP's salary with "consistent positive to neutral play".  That is kind of what I'm saying above to S-Hero.  What I'm not convinced of is that we can't get more consistent positive to neutral play by improving the cast of players around KP and their fit with him.  20 and one the half of the time he's positive or neutral is substantial.  Can you wipe out a big chunk of the bad games by keeping Maxi (and a second Maxi-like player) on the floor with KP at all times?  Does more PT with Green help?   

I don't think I helped myself.  If the team moved on from KP with what I thought were the "right" moves, I could support that.  I'd say to myself that PnR D with Luka is too much to overcome.  If the team kept KP and made what I thought were the "right" move to fill in around him, I could support that too.  I'd say to myself the upside was just too great to give up on Luka and KP as a duo just yet.

(05-09-2021, 08:53 PM)Jason Terry Wrote: Not just defending the PnR which has been an issue and could expose us in the playoffs...........the BIG light that has turned on recently was: our inability to run the PnR offensively 

IMO, the downfall of the Maxi-KP front court is this inability to run PnR offensively. This is the key that has made our offense look so terrible all season long. It’s easy buckets with Luka and neither Maxi nor KP can do it. We’ve made life hard on ourselves all season without it........Defensively, Maxi is the unicorn that can do it all and cover for the KP shortcomings. Hence the decent numbers in their pairing and the decent numbers of the regular starting lineup

The guys said it best on the TNT broadcast the other night. Paraphrasing but “KP is a great player in theory but as a 7 footer he doesn’t give you any of the benefits of having a 7 footer on the court” i.e. screens, boards, paint protector. Essentially making KP a 6’8” spot up 3pt shooter in a 7’4” glass body

Having said all that it’s still wait and see what happens in the playoffs.........he shows he can do EVERYTHING when the bright lights are shining then maybe he’s worth building around the shortcomings........even then......it’s important to note that many(probably most) in the trade KP crowd think that he has requested a trade and does not want to be here, so all the speculation and wait and see may be a moot point

(05-09-2021, 09:33 PM)dynamicalVoid Wrote: Is KP's size and athletic ability not quite right for the offensive PNR game?  Or...is he reluctant to participate in PNR in fear of reinjury?  Seems like a 6'8 to 6'11 athletic high flyer is most suitable.   Someone that can throw their body around and adjust quickly mid air.   You also have to have a good feel and read on whats happening and good chemistry with the ball handler.   I dont know if chemistry or feel/read are the issue,  athletic limitations, not liking that style of play, fear of increased risk of injury or something else is the issue.

I get that he has shown an issue with being able to defend on the PNR.

Also...Are the Mavs the first experience KP has had with PNR?

Def sounds like there are fit issues.