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+--- Thread: HOLY KRISTAPS: All Things Porzingis | TRADED to WAS (/showthread.php?tid=56)
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RE: HOLY KRISTAPS: All Things Porzingis | Would you trade him? - BasketballJones41 - 05-03-2021
(05-03-2021, 03:14 PM)cow Wrote: Wiggins needs to be your 4th option. He's paid like your 1st option. This is his 8th season and he still struggles with decision making. I thought GSW made a tactical error in the DeAngelo trade as they should have gotten more in return for taking Wiggins back. I'm still of that mind.Not saying the GSW trade is my preference but if that’s the direction we went would it really be that bad to have to eat one year of Wiggins? We can let him walk after next season and use his cap space for something else.
RE: HOLY KRISTAPS: All Things Porzingis | Would you trade him? - cow - 05-03-2021
(05-03-2021, 03:54 PM)BasketballJones41 Wrote: Not saying the GSW trade is my preference but if that’s the direction we went would it really be that bad to have to eat one year of Wiggins? We can let him walk after next season and use his cap space for something else.
If Wiseman/Wiggins is the return on KP, I'd be disappointed and that's coming from someone who thinks KP's value is pretty darned low.
RE: HOLY KRISTAPS: All Things Porzingis | Would you trade him? - StepBackJay - 05-03-2021
Wiggins is a starter but if he is one of your "best" starters you are trouble. Wiseman is a guy I like as a prospect but I think Mavs will want more of a sure-thing than that.
RE: HOLY KRISTAPS: All Things Porzingis | Would you trade him? - StepBackJay - 05-03-2021
Also I would not underestimate how bad GSW would want KP. He fits what they want to do. Next year they will have their big 3 back. KP fits as a poor-man's KD. That's a big 4 and you really only need filler after that.
Wiseman is a long-term project for them but disposable in the right deal.
Wiggins is fine as like the 4th or 5th starter but disposable.
That Minney pick is probably not going to help them near-term so is definitely movable.
Not sure what trade would satisfy the Mavs who want fair value for their star but I expect GSW to pursue him pretty aggressively. They will have other options but he is the closest thing to a star that's available and fits their team imo.
RE: HOLY KRISTAPS: All Things Porzingis | Would you trade him? - MaxiThreeba - 05-03-2021
(05-03-2021, 04:16 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: Also I would not underestimate how bad GSW would want KP. He fits what they want to do. Next year they will have their big 3 back. KP fits as a poor-man's KD. That's a big 4 and you really only need filler after that.
Wiseman is a long-term project for them but disposable in the right deal.
Wiggins is fine as like the 4th or 5th starter but disposable.
That Minney pick is probably not going to help them near-term so is definitely movable.
Not sure what trade would satisfy the Mavs who want fair value for their star but I expect GSW to pursue him pretty aggressively. They will have other options but he is the closest thing to a star that's available and fits their team imo.
Maybe that's where Charlotte could come in. They need to add to their interior of a young, exciting, up and coming roster. If KP went to GS could Wiseman be shipped on to Charlotte for Rozier? That also takes out a chief competitor (you would think) for Holmes.
Mavs net Wiggins, Rozier and the Minny Pick for KP. Maybe they could pass on Wiggins to OKC with a tip from someone to create around $46 million in space. Use the space on Holmes and still have maybe $30 million to fill out the roster.
Mavs could use the space as well as that Minny pick (draft or trade) to fill out the roster.
RE: HOLY KRISTAPS: All Things Porzingis | Would you trade him? - BasketballJones41 - 05-03-2021
(05-03-2021, 03:57 PM)cow Wrote: If Wiseman/Wiggins is the return on KP, I'd be disappointed and that's coming from someone who thinks KP's value is pretty darned low.Gotcha. I agree there’s no way I’m doing that trade without the MIN pick.
(05-03-2021, 04:34 PM)MaxiThreeba Wrote: Maybe that's where Charlotte could come in. They need to add to their interior of a young, exciting, up and coming roster. If KP went to GS could Wiseman be shipped on to Charlotte for Rozier? That also takes out a chief competitor (you would think) for Holmes.I actually thought about the OKC angle earlier. I bet it wouldn’t take much for them to eat the last year of Wiggins deal. Maybe they’ll even take Powell while we’re at it.
Mavs net Wiggins, Rozier and the Minny Pick for KP. Maybe they could pass on Wiggins to OKC with a tip from someone to create around $46 million in space. Use the space on Holmes and still have maybe $30 million to fill out the roster.
Mavs could use the space as well as that Minny pick (draft or trade) to fill out the roster.
RE: HOLY KRISTAPS: All Things Porzingis | Would you trade him? - StepBackJay - 05-03-2021
(05-03-2021, 04:34 PM)MaxiThreeba Wrote: Maybe that's where Charlotte could come in. They need to add to their interior of a young, exciting, up and coming roster. If KP went to GS could Wiseman be shipped on to Charlotte for Rozier? That also takes out a chief competitor (you would think) for Holmes.
Mavs net Wiggins, Rozier and the Minny Pick for KP. Maybe they could pass on Wiggins to OKC with a tip from someone to create around $46 million in space. Use the space on Holmes and still have maybe $30 million to fill out the roster.
Mavs could use the space as well as that Minny pick (draft or trade) to fill out the roster.
Ya I like the construct of that type of trade. Mavs definitely need a "win-now" player in any scenario to satisfy the FO. So getting a guy like Rozier (maybe multiple guys) helps with that and maybe the Mavs draft somebody or trade it. Assuming they find a guy they like with that Minny pick I would imagine they draft someone with it as a future piece.
RE: HOLY KRISTAPS: All Things Porzingis | Would you trade him? - StepBackJay - 05-03-2021
Haven't done the math but if you wound up with Rozier, Wiggins, Minny-drafted player, Holmes that's a pretty good summer. If Mavs don't want a rookie + Wiggins then they could send those two somewhere (presumably) for a player or players they want (not sure who tho?).
RE: HOLY KRISTAPS: All Things Porzingis | Would you trade him? - ThisIStheYear - 05-03-2021
For KP to perform well in the playoffs, the Mavs will need to make the playoffs. That’s far from certain, especially with KP out and his performance uncertain, even if he does play. Every game the rest of the season is a playoff game until the Mavs clinch a spot. I would take Rozier and salary dumps for KP right now and count myself lucky. That’s about the upper range of his current value, and the Mavs may still have to give a draft pick tip or more.
RE: HOLY KRISTAPS: All Things Porzingis | Would you trade him? - Scott41theMavs - 05-03-2021
(05-03-2021, 06:17 PM)ThisIStheYear Wrote: For KP to perform well in the playoffs, the Mavs will need to make the playoffs. That’s far from certain, especially with KP out and his performance uncertain, even if he does play. Every game the rest of the season is a playoff game until the Mavs clinch a spot. I would take Rozier and salary dumps for KP right now and count myself lucky. That’s about the upper range of his current value, and the Mavs may still have to give a draft pick tip or more.
Yeah, I think that take on his trade value is shock value. Mainly because Rozier has had a good year, but is still close to being a salary dump himself.
I think you can stick a fork in the Lakers. The Mavs would have to do worse than .500, imho, to land below the Lakers in the standings. That would indeed be an epic fail.
RE: HOLY KRISTAPS: All Things Porzingis | Would you trade him? - ThisIStheYear - 05-03-2021
I’m not sure that the Lakers won’t figure this out. I wouldn’t assume anything. As far as Rozier goes, RPM has him as a top 8 shooting guard. He’s shooting nearly 40% from 3 with close to a 60 TS%. He’s still young. His contract is only one more year, so way better than Zinger. The one negative is his size. He basically seems like a rich man’s Burke. The size is a negative as an off ball guard, but then again, he’s probably a good fit with Luka. I would take Zinger for Rozier straight up for sure, use salary cap to sign another pretty good big. A few other roster tweaks, and we have a 53 win team.
RE: HOLY KRISTAPS: All Things Porzingis | Would you trade him? - Scott41theMavs - 05-03-2021
(05-03-2021, 08:27 PM)ThisIStheYear Wrote: I’m not sure that the Lakers won’t figure this out. I wouldn’t assume anything. As far as Rozier goes, RPM has him as a top 8 shooting guard. He’s shooting nearly 40% from 3 with close to a 60 TS%. He’s still young. His contract is only one more year, so way better than Zinger. The one negative is his size. He basically seems like a rich man’s Burke. The size is a negative as an off ball guard, but then again, he’s probably a good fit with Luka. I would take Zinger for Rozier straight up for sure, use salary cap to sign another pretty good big. A few other roster tweaks, and we have a 53 win team.
Okay, you've convinced me, I was wrong. But I would still ask for a lot more than Rozier in that deal. This is MJ the GM we're talking about here.
RE: HOLY KRISTAPS: All Things Porzingis | Would you trade him? - ThisIStheYear - 05-04-2021
It was nice to see KP in good spirits on the sideline genuinely rooting his teammates on, including a high five for Luka. Maybe all hope isn’t lost for him on the roster just yet. The attitude seemed positive tonight.
RE: HOLY KRISTAPS: All Things Porzingis | Would you trade him? - Scott41theMavs - 05-04-2021
(05-04-2021, 10:04 PM)ThisIStheYear Wrote: It was nice to see KP in good spirits on the sideline genuinely rooting his teammates on, including a high five for Luka. Maybe all hope isn’t lost for him on the roster just yet. The attitude seemed positive tonight.
Hey, I've always seen that as issue number one. If that gets fixed, he can stay another year if we can't get a good deal for him this summer.
RE: HOLY KRISTAPS: All Things Porzingis | Would you trade him? - Kammrath - 05-04-2021
(05-04-2021, 10:36 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: issue number one
Nah, the on-court lack of chemistry is that IMO.
RE: HOLY KRISTAPS: All Things Porzingis | Would you trade him? - Branduil - 05-04-2021
It's chemistry, availability, and defense.
RE: HOLY KRISTAPS: All Things Porzingis | Would you trade him? - Scott41theMavs - 05-04-2021
(05-04-2021, 11:06 PM)Kammrath Wrote: Nah, the on-court lack of chemistry is that IMO.
That's fixable if they can fix the off-court chemistry. They'll be motivated to work together to make it work.
RE: HOLY KRISTAPS: All Things Porzingis | Would you trade him? - Kammrath - 05-06-2021
https://twitter.com/CallieCaplan/status/1390431180865036290
RE: HOLY KRISTAPS: All Things Porzingis | Would you trade him? - DanSchwartzgan - 05-09-2021
The Decision
I'm struggling to decide if I want to keep thinking through two alternative off-seasons (one with and one without KP) or just focus on one version or the other. I'm not devoted to either camp. I do think the team has greater upside if it can make KP work. Even this season we are elite offensively when KP and Luka share the floor. I also worry that we will never get a full healthy playoff run out of him. And that is before considering the whole "do they get along" thing.
So goes KP, so goes the team
I was playing around at various stat sites and noticed that KP is +13.7 in Wins and -17.4 in Losses. Most players are better in wins than losses, but a 31 point change in net rating is huge. KP's O/D Ratings are 122/107 in Wins and 105/119 in losses. Dr. Jekyll, meet Mr. Hyde.
Breaking it down further, KP has been a net neutral or positive in 21 of the 40 games he's played. Dallas is 20-1 in those games and the one loss is a one point loss to Phoenix on Feb. 1st. The wins include POR, SAS, MIL, NYK, BOS, ATL, LAC, SAS, BRK, IND, MEM, GS, CHO and DEN among the top 10 in each conference. So, they aren't all against weaker sisters. Basically, if KP wins his time on the floor, Dallas does also.
We have won only four of the 19 games where KP has been a net negative for the game. Basically, it is hard to overcome a night of negative floor time from KP
We have played 27 games w/o KP and we are 15-12 in those games. So, we are a .555 team without him and a .600 team with him. Now, that is way too simplistic because you'd have to look at what else was going on in those 12 w/o KP losses. I'd also like to know more about the 15 losses where KP was a net negative. Who else were we missing? But, what makes me want to lean toward keeping KP is that 20-1 record when he's not a net negative. How do I sign up for more of that. BTW, last season we lost 1/3 of the 33 games where he was neutral or positive. Comparing this season to KP's career, this is the only time his On Minus Off has been negative.
What happened to the D
We all know the issue this season is at the defensive end. As they say, "it is a game of runs". We've had stretches were we are top 7 or 8 and we've had stretches where we are about the worst D in the league. Dallas gives up 117.8 with KP on the court and only 110.2 when he's off. But, he ranks 46th in the NBA in Net PER. So, he dominates the production of his direct opponent while simultaneously killing our D at the same time? Again, COVID and injuries probably cloud this picture. But, it is super inconsistent. It is hard to look at data and figure out what is happening. The team is great in his two best lineups (Luka/JRich/DFS/Maxi/KP is +13 O/D = 127/114. Brunson/JRich/THJ/DFS/KP is +18 O/D = 132/114). The next three most used lineups have D Ratings of 137, 120 and 157. Does is matter? This season a team's D-Rating has a .546 correlation to winning while O-Rating has a .848 correlation to winning.
Its raining 3's.
We win when we win the 3 point battle. The best 3% allowed two-man pairings are when KP plays with Maxi and WCS. In fact, the only positive Net 3% (Own 3% minus Opponent 3%) is also when KP is with either Maxi or WCS. It makes no sense because you would think those pairings would be bad at protecting the perimeter. As it turns out opponent points are highest when KP is paired with DFS. Opponent 3% is highest with KP/Luka followed by KP/DFS among pairs involving KP.
If you look at pre-post all star splits for the team, the biggest (almost only) difference between being slightly negative pre and +5 post in net rating is our own 3% shooting which is about 2 1/2 percent better post. That corresponds to KP shooting better post all-star at .376 vs. pre all-star at .349.
Missing Maxi and fixing the Pick and Roll
This is where the rubber meets the road. I've mentioned that we've had stretches where our D is one of the best in the league. Overall we are 7th in the league in opponent FG% and 11th in opponent 3%. I've also mentioned the D-Rating is fantastic at 107 in KP games we win. The question is how to prevent the abysmal D-Rating we have when KP plays and we lose. One answer is a healthy Maxi. Of KP's 12 worst personal +/- (all with a +/- of -6 or worse), Maxi missed 7 of them. Maxi is KP's best two-man lineup pairing at +8.1. No one else is close. Take Maxi away and KP is a worse version of himself.
The issue is probably PnR D. Dallas is 26th in the league in dealing with the ball handler in PnR situations at 0.927 points per possession. That balloons to 1.051 if Luka and KP are on the floor together (Mav's Moneyball 4/29). Ouch. I don't know if Defense Wins Championships, but history says you can't be bad a D and win a championship and good PnR teams kill us when our two stars are on the court together. It is so bad that it wipes out how good we are offensively with the two of them together. We just don't have enough help to cover up this weakness. One of the reasons Powell's team defensive data is good is he can drop and get back to his assignment quickly. KP can't and everything breaks down around him when others help. Maxi seems to be the best helper as he has some ability to protect the rim without getting killed on the perimeter. We play more of a switching style when KP is out. This isn't great as teams can hunt Luka. Part of Green's success comes in these situations. He's fantastic at helping while not losing the ability to recover back to his own man. His instincts are special (a topic for another day). BTW, THJ isn't good at PnR Defense and it is hard to generate enough offence without at least two of Luka, THJ and KP on the floor.
So, what to do?
I'm still left with the same question of what to do. I think the team probably wants to make KP work. It will take more depth and another Maxi-like player. Lineup data shows our starters aren't the issue. But, a huge percentage of our minutes are Luka sans KP and KP sans Luka and even a few minutes without either. THJ is our de facto third star and plays with both Luka and KP and some portion of the bench. He isn't good enough for this role and certainly isn't good enough when both stars sit. But, we also have a depth issue. We could platoon more and keep our highly effective starting unit together if we could field a bench unit that stands on its own. But, we can't keep everyone healthy and even when we do, we are a couple players shy of a stand-alone bench.
Or, do you move on from KP. It is certainly easy to see improve defense without him. Heck, we already have it when he's not on the floor. Imagine if we added some D in a KP trade or in free agency. KP would be harder to replace offensively, but we don't have to be tops in the league, just good. With Luka, you will always bee good. Could we add a rim-runner defender to Powell/WCS and have someone like that on the floor all the time? Yes. Could we find a stretch four and have one of him and Maxi on the floor at all times? Yes. Could we find another shot creator to start at SG? Yes. How about an aging vet who can score some to help out the bench. It isn't hard to imagine all of that given the resources we have...and none of those roles have to be filled by stars to improve the team.
The question is what is that team's peak versus the peak of a team that retains KP and does a better job of filling in the obvious gaps.
RE: HOLY KRISTAPS: All Things Porzingis | Would you trade him? - dirkfansince1998 - 05-09-2021
(05-09-2021, 10:20 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: So goes KP, so goes the team
I was playing around at various stat sites and noticed that KP is +13.7 in Wins and -17.4 in Losses
KPs numbers aren´t any different compared to the rest of the team. Basically telling us what we already know. Richardson and KP are by far the worst rotations players when it comes to +/-.
Luka + 15.3 / -13.1
DFS +17.8 / -13.1
Richardson +8.4 / -16.5
Kleber +16.4 / -17.2
Powell +12.0 / -11.7
THJ +13.5 / -15.6
WCS +16.7 / -3.8
Brunson +13.0 / -7.7
Looking at the numbers the right takeaway is probably: As the starters go, so goes the team. Looking around the league this seems to be the case for most teams.