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+--- Thread: Team Tank 2022-23 (/showthread.php?tid=2298)
RE: Team Tank 2022-23 - Knutsen - 03-22-2023
(03-22-2023, 12:31 AM)F Gump Wrote: It's a tough call.
Tanking is getting more and more risky. Unless they get far enough down, all the tanking might accomplish is to give a better pick to NY. If they tank, there are some likely scenarios where they don't even make the play-in, or make the play-in and then are one-and-done, and still get no pick at all this summer.
No way will the Mavs overtake HOU, SA, or POR in a race to the bottom of the West. And the East is on track to end up with at least 5 of the top-10 picks in the draft (and Mavs have to land top 10 to get a pick).
The really frustrating thing is that the West is mostly ripe for the taking this year for a team that's any good. But with the loss of all defense and all rebounding, and the loss of Brunson too, this year's edition of Cuban's Craftsmanship is incredibly mediocre. Even against the crap competition, they still aren't reliable to win games they can and should win.
We would have to get the 9th worst record to have a very good chance of keeping our pick. Chicago is in that place right now, but is in a difficult situation because they lose their pick if isn’t in the top 4. Also interesting is New Orleans and the Lakers in 10th and 11th - the Lakers won‘t tank and the Pelicans have swap rights with the Lakers, so they could try to get in front of them without losing their position in the lottery.
I think today could be decisive - if we win we stay all-in, if we lose and especially if Kyrie or Luka were to reaggrevate their injuries we should try to lose out.
RE: Team Tank 2022-23 - KillerLeft - 03-22-2023
(03-22-2023, 07:19 AM)Smitty Wrote: Shouldn't we be rooting for the pick to convey? The Mavs would be in this same spot next year, no?
That’s what I’ve been saying. I just need the Porzingis nightmare to be over.
RE: Team Tank 2022-23 - omahen - 03-23-2023
I also don't get "lose the pick" takes. That pick is "lost", its just a question which year. But of course, having a top 9 pick has value. Although, the way Mavs have been building the team, that pick owed to NY might be more valuable each year
Don't forget the pick is unprotected in 2025 and Mavs could be handing out a number one pick to NY after another "excellent" summer.
RE: Team Tank 2022-23 - loki - 03-23-2023
(03-23-2023, 02:33 AM)omahen Wrote: I also don't get "lose the pick" takes. That pick is "lost", its just a question which year. But of course, having a top 9 pick has value. Although, the way Mavs have been building the team, that pick owed to NY might be more valuable each yearI don't have a source, but my memory is that the pick is top 10 protected in 2025 and becomes the 2025 2nd rounder if not conveyed.
RE: Team Tank 2022-23 - omahen - 03-23-2023
(03-23-2023, 05:23 AM)loki Wrote: I don't have a source, but my memory is that the pick is top 10 protected in 2025 and becomes the 2025 2nd rounder if not conveyed.
Looks like I was wrong, I thought it becomes unprotected in 2025.
NBA Future Drafts By Team - RealGM
In any case, Mavs have two options:
1. Tank and (most likely - still option they don't succeed) get the pick this year. It is risky, I think 8 teams are a lock to have worse record than Mavs, even if Mavs lose all remaining games. This is also a huge indictment for FO. They have less flexibility going forward as the pick will still be owed to NY in either 2024 or 2025 (assuming Mavs can actually build a top 20 team in those two years
), operating with 2023 and 2027 pick on draft night and 2027 in the summer. 2. Not tank and convey the pick. They can trade any pick from 2024-2027 on either draft night or in the summer. Or two pick combo of either 24+26, 25+27 or 24+27.
At this point, even I would be inclined towards option number 1, but it has to be really epic bad conclusion of the season with Mavs losing all games, 2 against a crappy Charlotte team. I don't believe Mavs will choose this option.
RE: Team Tank 2022-23 - Chicagojk - 03-23-2023
I just don't see a deliberate tank. I fully expect to wind up at pick #11. It is the Mavs way.
I really can't see the Mavs going full tank. Luka already looks miserable out there lately. I can't believe he would be fine sitting out the rest of the season after working for a full year just at a chance to get the #8 pick. And if we still lose our pick.......
I think this would expedite him wanting out.
Eat the bullet now. It sucks the Knicks will probably get a top 15 pick. But it what it is. Unless Luka gets hurt again. Go for the playoffs.
RE: Team Tank 2022-23 - F Gump - 03-23-2023
The Mavs have a big problem in the decision-making here, because a decision to "make the playoffs" is fairly meaningless. They just aren't a good team at all, and if they try with all their might, their playoff future is still extremely iffy.
Tanking and getting a pick WAS an option, if they had the collective organizational will to try that, but they didn't. Just a bad team adrift. They can still lose a bit more, by trying, but only an all-out 0 from here would get them low enough to help. They have landed in no-man's land, too many wins to get a good pick and too sucky for the playoffs.
RE: Team Tank 2022-23 - StrandedOnBeauboisHill - 03-23-2023
(03-23-2023, 10:35 AM)F Gump Wrote: because a decision to "make the playoffs" is fairly meaningless.
Feels like everyone on the team tank train completely disregards human emotions.
(03-23-2023, 10:35 AM)F Gump Wrote: They just aren't a good team at all
Is anyone in the West?
I understand why folks would want to tank (with 9 games left lol) but the idea of getting Luka and Kyrie together in the playoffs is far from meaningless.
This team is all over the place and the West is absolute garbage right now. We could lose out and get our pick or end up making a push to the conference finals and neither outcome would surprise me at this point.
RE: Team Tank 2022-23 - Chicagojk - 03-23-2023
(03-23-2023, 10:55 AM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: Feels like everyone on the team tank train completely disregards human emotions.
That is what I think as well. If Luka is playing, you try to win. Period. Sure, we all hope he has a 15 year career, but you never know. I just find it hard to believe after a long season, you tell him the last two weeks thanks for playing, but there is a 60% we may get Grady Dick (nothing against that player). That just feels like a loser franchise move. If I was a top 5 player in the league, I would be pissed and would really re-evaluate if Dallas was the right place if they tried otherwise. Regardless of this teams limitations and lousy play. Luka entering any series feels like he is going to win. Tough to tell him, lets wait until next year.
Now if he is not healthy, that is another story.
Here is Luka today after a tough game.
https://twitter.com/townbrad/status/1638953618337308693
RE: Team Tank 2022-23 - KillerLeft - 03-23-2023
(03-23-2023, 10:35 AM)F Gump Wrote: Just a bad team adrift.
That pretty much sums it up, doesn't it?
RE: Team Tank 2022-23 - SkenfromLMF - 03-23-2023
I guess it depends on Kyrie right now...
IF KI is recovering for a significant period of time this team is not successful. Shut Luka down and put Hardy in the fire with Green and Wood. I just don't see meeting any of the teams with home court as a productive outcome when we have not gelled with KI & Luka on the floor together.
RE: Team Tank 2022-23 - Mavs2021 - 03-23-2023
(03-23-2023, 10:55 AM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: Feels like everyone on the team tank train completely disregards human emotions.
Some people always act like losing basketball games for two weeks is like a human travesty that cannot be overcome and should lead to immediate suicide.
I think Luka will get over two weeks of tanking. He sure had no problem tanking beer and wine before the Euros QF against Poland.
RE: Team Tank 2022-23 - F Gump - 03-23-2023
(03-23-2023, 10:55 AM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: Feels like everyone on the team tank train completely disregards human emotions.
Is anyone in the West?
I understand why folks would want to tank (with 9 games left lol) but the idea of getting Luka and Kyrie together in the playoffs is far from meaningless.
This team is all over the place and the West is absolute garbage right now. We could lose out and get our pick or end up making a push to the conference finals and neither outcome would surprise me at this point.
You aren't following my point at all.
You talk about how meaningful the playoffs would be, and my thinking is, "Really? What playoffs?" Just because they want to get there doesn't mean a thing.
I am speaking to the idea -- often expressed, and again implied in your response -- that this Mavs team certainly WILL make the playoffs, if they (simply) want to. That ignores the reality that -- even with Luka and Kyrie -- they are a fairly bad team. That's what renders a "decision to win the rest of the games" fairly meaningless -- ie, meaningless in relation to what it will produce. They aren't good enough to decide themselves into the playoffs, no matter how hard they want it.
Evidence? They are a sub .500 team since the trade, who can lose to the worst teams in the league even when the Mavs are trying hard to win. IOW making a decision to win is LIKELIEST to produce more losses than wins. Which may not even get them into the play-in, much less the playoffs.
I see a BAD team, not a good one. They are horrendous on defense and rebounding. There's no reason to think those issues are fixable; they simply are who they are, and it means it's going to be a struggle to win against anyone.
But it would take a "lose every game" mentality to get a pick, and I agree with you that they probably don't have the stomach to think past the moment and opt for that. So they will try their hardest to get a playoff slot, and fall flat on their faces, I suspect. Is missing the playoffs in that manner "meaningful"? Maybe it is.
RE: Team Tank 2022-23 - cow - 03-23-2023
(03-23-2023, 01:29 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: That pretty much sums it up, doesn't it?
Maybe I should have made that playoff bet with you. :p
RE: Team Tank 2022-23 - ItsGoTime - 03-23-2023
There’s no way they are trying to tank, otherwise they easily could have lost quite a few recent games. I think tanking is actually the quickest way to help them get out of the situation they are in other than trading Luka. They should have started way earlier though cause we could already be in the 10 and under club at this point. Just a dumb franchise front office.
RE: Team Tank 2022-23 - ItsGoTime - 03-23-2023
Just went back and looked. The game we should have decided the tank was on (at the latest) was the NO game where Luka went out early and Kyrie had to play 41 minutes to win. We should have lost that game and every game since. Had we done that, we would be tied with Indiana at 33-40 for the 8th spot in the draft. We'd be looking to out tank Washington and Portland to get to the 6th spot in the draft and well away from conveying our pick.
At that point we're looking to use that top 1-8ish pick to rope NYK into a trade to get our future pick back as well as some upgrades/other picks. Whether the upgrades and/or picks come directly from NY or a 3rd team doesn't matter as long as we get our pick back from them. Not as easy as typing out on a computer, but not rocket science either.
RE: Team Tank 2022-23 - Spin4177 - 03-24-2023
Guy's what are the rules about our pick going to New York this draft?
That is the biggest question in the room.
Can NY say they want the pick at any time or is there a deadline?
RE: Team Tank 2022-23 - Mavs2021 - 03-24-2023
(03-23-2023, 07:29 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: There’s no way they are trying to tank, otherwise they easily could have lost quite a few recent games. I think tanking is actually the quickest way to help them get out of the situation they are in other than trading Luka. They should have started way earlier though cause we could already be in the 10 and under club at this point. Just a dumb franchise front office.
The sad part is that we are at a point that we don´t even believe they could intentionally lose games, if they tried to. Think about that. They could still easily do this. We are 1.5 games ahead of the Bulls in 9th and we still play against them.
But we play the Hornets at home on their B2B next and there is no way, you can lose that game, unless you intend to. The Hornets probably wouldn´t be too worried about winning. They could literally finish the season 8-0 from here and still have the same lottery balls.
RE: Team Tank 2022-23 - ItsGoTime - 03-24-2023
(03-24-2023, 12:10 AM)Spin4177 Wrote: Guy's what are the rules about our pick going to New York this draft?It’s top 10 protected, that’s the rule. If we get a pick from 1-10, we get to keep the pick and it rolls over to next year. This is why I want to get the top 10 pick and then trade it with NYK involvement to get our pick back plus other assets.
That is the biggest question in the room.
Can NY say they want the pick at any time or is there a deadline?
RE: Team Tank 2022-23 - ballsrchr - 03-24-2023
(03-24-2023, 07:38 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: It’s top 10 protected, that’s the rule. If we get a pick from 1-10, we get to keep the pick and it rolls over to next year. This is why I want to get the top 10 pick and then trade it with NYK involvement to get our pick back plus other assets.
I am not a proponent of trading draft picks ("for a bag of potato chips"), but in this case--I think this is a pretty good idea.