(11-19-2023, 11:37 AM)surfpuckmd Wrote: The EPM data for this season is now available.  It's the first good advanced metric data I've seen for this season.  It's interesting.  According to EPM...

Luka  + 4.3 
Kyrie + 3.3         
THJ  +0.3     
Lively    -0.2     
Grant Williams  - 0.6     
DJJ    - 1.1       
Hardy  - 1.6     
DP  -1.7
Exum  - 3.4             
Kleber   -4.3               
Seth   - 4.9     
Josh Green    -4.9

Luka and Kyrie have been great.  THJ and Lively have been pretty good.  DJJ and Grant have been solid.  DP has not been bad.  The rest of our rotation has been really weak.  I'm surprised by the Exum data as I thought he's looked pretty good.   Josh Green's data supports a lot of the board's opinion about Green this season and it's worse than I personally anticipated.  I do think Green will improve as the season goes on.   In other interesting results, Reggie Bullock is among the worst players in the NBA at - 6.3.  

Among opportunities to improve, here are some players (with their EPM) who might actually be available for trade at this time:

Alex Caruso  + 2.1
Deni Avdija    + 1.1
Zach Collins   + 0.6
Vucevic   - 0.4
Drummond   - 0.5
Gafford  - 1.2

All of these players would be upgrades on our roster.   

A few other interesting figures:

Holmgren + 5.0 and Wemby at -0.9.     Holmgren is a top-10 player already on EPM and one of the most impressive rookies the league has seen in a long time.  

Jerami Grant at -2.3 and Christian Wood at -3.0.   Grant with a defensive rating of -2.1 might not be the upgrade we wish.  Christian Wood has not been effective this season so I won't bring him up again.

All of this data is early but interesting.  It's mostly consistent with the eye test with a few surprises.

(11-19-2023, 10:35 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: Stewart is interesting.   He is someone I liked in the past.  I am not sure he is exactly what I am looking for now though.  Plus, I think the GM has a long history with his family so I am not sure if he would be one of the first guys they look to move.

When I think about finishing up the building of the roster over the next year or so, here is what I envision...in addition to the youngster hopeful growth.   Maybe this player can be one player, but maybe two solid B players would be the better fit?

1) Maxi type player but 20% better.   A guy who can play some five but also guard a little on the perimeter while stretching the floor.   This is who I view as the Lively backup in time.   Envision the Maxi from 3-4 years ago (but a little better) pairing with Grant for stretches.   Grant can use his strength on the center and Maxi can be the off ball shot blocker.  Plus, both can spread the floor.

2) Taller than 6'8 wing who mostly can match up against perimeter wings but can also chip in with 6-7 rebounds.   Unless the Mavs get really lucky this would be where you probably need to spend several assets to get.   You are probably looking for a salary over 20 million per year.  I think this is a must have.  In addition to the development of our youngsters.  They need a guy and a wave following to throw at the elite scorers to make them work for their points.  They need this to be a contender.

(11-19-2023, 11:53 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: What’s the distinction between EPM and BPM?

(11-19-2023, 11:37 AM)surfpuckmd Wrote: The EPM data for this season is now available.  It's the first good advanced metric data I've seen for this season.  It's interesting.  According to EPM...

Luka  + 4.3 
Kyrie + 3.3         
THJ  +0.3     
Lively    -0.2     
Grant Williams  - 0.6     
DJJ    - 1.1       
Hardy  - 1.6     
DP  -1.7
Exum  - 3.4             
Kleber   -4.3               
Seth   - 4.9     
Josh Green    -4.9

Luka and Kyrie have been great.  THJ and Lively have been pretty good.  DJJ and Grant have been solid.  DP has not been bad.  The rest of our rotation has been really weak.  I'm surprised by the Exum data as I thought he's looked pretty good.   Josh Green's data supports a lot of the board's opinion about Green this season and it's worse than I personally anticipated.  I do think Green will improve as the season goes on.   In other interesting results, Reggie Bullock is among the worst players in the NBA at - 6.3.  

Among opportunities to improve, here are some players (with their EPM) who might actually be available for trade at this time:

Alex Caruso  + 2.1
Deni Avdija    + 1.1
Zach Collins   + 0.6
Vucevic   - 0.4
Drummond   - 0.5
Gafford  - 1.2

All of these players would be upgrades on our roster.   

A few other interesting figures:

Holmgren + 5.0 and Wemby at -0.9.     Holmgren is a top-10 player already on EPM and one of the most impressive rookies the league has seen in a long time.  

Jerami Grant at -2.3 and Christian Wood at -3.0.   Grant with a defensive rating of -2.1 might not be the upgrade we wish.  Christian Wood has not been effective this season so I won't bring him up again.

All of this data is early but interesting.  It's mostly consistent with the eye test with a few surprises.

(11-19-2023, 11:53 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: What’s the distinction between EPM and BPM?

(11-19-2023, 12:12 PM)mvossman Wrote: It is probably important to note that advanced stats tend to take longer to normalize than regular stats, so they are going to be quite noisy right now.

(11-19-2023, 10:35 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: 1) Maxi type player but 20% better.   A guy who can play some five but also guard a little on the perimeter while stretching the floor.   This is who I view as the Lively backup in time.   Envision the Maxi from 3-4 years ago (but a little better) pairing with Grant for stretches.   Grant can use his strength on the center and Maxi can be the off ball shot blocker.  Plus, both can spread the floor.

(11-19-2023, 11:53 AM)chaparral Wrote: Would the answer to both questions 1 and 2 be - John Collins?

(11-19-2023, 03:40 PM)chaparral Wrote: Trade Restriction: This player can be traded but has a Poison Pill restriction until Jul 01, 2024.

Advija and our Green has this trade restriction.  What is the poison pill?

(11-19-2023, 05:03 PM)Jakeospikez Wrote: I don't think trading Hardy is the move. His ballhandling is improving and he's already a great spot up shooter. He needs a lot more development time. THJ might be better for this year but no way you keep THJ over Hardy for this team. This isn't an all-in team, this is a stay good for many years team.

If JC is gettable for something cheap, might be better than dumping a lot of assets and cap space for OG even though OG is better. Ainge probably is trying to rebuild his value and flip, Hendricks should eventually take his spot. Suppose it depends on how much it takes to convince Ainge the flip is worth it. They have horrible guards. Not sure it's worth using the 2027 1st for though. A Lively/JC/Omax/Maxi big rotation might be good enough to not need a backup traditional rim protector. Powell there for certain matchups or injury insurance.

Some of these other big wings seem like decent targets, just need to find the best deal I guess.

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The fanspo trade machine tells you what it is if you try to use Green in a trade.
https://fanspo.com/nba/trade-machine

Poison Pill
Josh Green is on a rookie contract and signed an extension that is to begin the following season. Therefore, he has what is known as a "poison pill" contract. He can no longer be traded for a player making equal money. Instead, his current salary is averaged along with the salaries he is to receive in his extension, and that average becomes his incoming salary for trade purposes. His outgoing value for the Mavericks will be $4.7M while his incoming value for the receiving team will be $11.4M.

(11-19-2023, 06:35 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: OG is CAA.  He won't extend.  There is NO WAY Dallas will trade for him and be subject to him walking this summer.  A trade this summer?  Maybe.  But, it won't happen in season.  Might as well let that one go.

BTW, I do think Olynyk would help.  I don't think Drummond does much for us.  He won't be able to stay on the floor in the playoffs any more than Powell.  He's just a different kind of mediocre.