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+--- Thread: MAVS NEWS: Luka Wins Community Cares Award! | DLive's Mom Passes Away| Maxi OUT (/showthread.php?tid=2172)
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RE: MAVS NEWS: Waiting for Draft/FA to start - Nowitzki Way - 06-05-2023
(06-05-2023, 03:37 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: But it starts to get really painful for a short term fix when people start talking about 2027 and #10, Hardy and Green. I get that we'd be buying a potential championship, but Le-GM always leaves disaster in his wake every time he moves on. The more young assets we send, the more likely we are a disaster 3 years from now.
My other objection is it just feels like a shortcut. We aren't smart enough to put in the actual work, but we found a way to cheat the system. Even if we did win it all, it wouldn't be nearly as satisfying as making a series of smart picks and trades and signings and getting there in a more traditional way.
To the first point- If this was a normal situation where he was on the block for all teams to bid, the yes it would take #10, Green, Hardy, and every thing else we could offer. And it still wouldnt be enough. What would Boston offer? Philly? Golden State? We would be outbid.
But this is Lebron. He gets what he wants, make no mistakes about it. If he wants a certain team he will get traded there, and he'll pretty much orchestrate the trade himself. He'll determine what is coming back and going with him. Lebron is that powerful, and what he lacks Rich Paul will make up for.
This guy runs the NBA. If he decides he wants to go to Dallas for THJ, Bertans, Reggie. Its a done deal. He'll say no to Green or Hardy because he wants those assets on his team. Its just 99.99% that this WON'T happen. But if he wants it, it will happen.
RE: MAVS NEWS: Waiting for Draft/FA to start - omahen - 06-05-2023
It also seems to me that Kyrie is a very influential figure behind the scenes. As FGump said, players love him. He was the one that convinced Durant to go to Nets instead of Knicks and there were more than one rumor saying Durant doesn't have the problem with him and wants him on Suns. So, I wouldn't discard his influence as a possibility to attract big names Cuban always loves. Remember, Bill Simons (I think) mentioned months ago that Kyrie would like to bring LeBron and Draymond to Mavs.
Of course, this would be the ultimate win now plan with a two year window (max) and scorched earth after that. But, Mavs sort of already went on this way by trading for Kyrie. He is not a long term play. Nothing would surprise me.
Is it a sound long term building strategy? Of course not. But is it a good move if it succeeds and brings a title? Despite scorched earth and 5 years of tanking that will follow? I am not sure. I would prefer the long term route, but Mavs really wasted that opportunity last five years. And I just repeat again - Kyrie is not a long term move. Looks like scorched earth is something acceptable for Mavs.
RE: MAVS NEWS: Waiting for Draft/FA to start - omahen - 06-05-2023
One last thing - do I believe it will happen? No way. I don't believe Mavs are competent enough to pull it off. I find it far more likely LeBron orchestrates Kyrie trade to Lakers fleecing Mavs in the process. As many have said - he gets what he wants.
RE: MAVS NEWS: Waiting for Draft/FA to start - dirkfansince1998 - 06-05-2023
Deadline rumors about LBJ make no sense. Based on my understanding of the rules a pre deadline trade wasn´t even option. He signed an extension and wasn´t eligible.
RE: MAVS NEWS: Waiting for Draft/FA to start - IamDougieFresh - 06-05-2023
This is getting a bit too wacky, wake me up on draft day.
RE: MAVS NEWS: Waiting for Draft/FA to start - Jason Terry - 06-05-2023
This only works if;
1. All parties involved have the understanding that this is a 1 year deal that’s being purchased by Dallas
2. Following the 23-24 season Bronny will be drafted by X team
3. Dallas will then sign and trade(if needed) Lebron to team X on favorable terms to team X
How much is one year of Lebron worth? Lebron has the power to influence the terms. The 10 pick could be enough value by itself and i think LA would prefer it to the 27 pick.
RE: MAVS NEWS: Waiting for Draft/FA to start - khaled1987 - 06-05-2023
Lebron said that as much as he wants to play with Bronny, he isn't sure it is his son's wish and it might never happen.
And tbh, I think this is the smart thing, and Lebron is surely a smart man, as him joining Bronny being an important deal for him could set the kid back and make him living under his dad's name with no chance for success. It looks cool at first glance but honestly, I would feel bad for his kid if it happens.
Don't think it will be 1 year deal btw, not many teams will draft his son so that they pay him max money whole they are a contender.
Lebron won't miss a chance to get a 5th ring, and Luka & Kyrie seems like a respectable duo for him especially as he ages
RE: MAVS NEWS: Waiting for Draft/FA to start - DanSchwartzgan - 06-05-2023
In other Mav's news, Keith Smith predicts the Green extension this summer will be 4/$70mm
JOSH GREEN, DALLAS MAVERICKS
Green started to show some stuff during his second season. In his third year, Green became the Mavs best all-around wing. This is probably going to be a value extension that might catch some off guard.
Prediction: Four years, $70 million
Other than the Max guys, Keith only has a few first round players getting an extension at all:
Max: Edwards, Ball, Halliburton, Maxey, Bane
Non-Max: P. Williams 5/100, Toppin 4/70, Vassell 5/115, Quickley 4/84, J McDaniels 4/100
That's nine players estimated to get more than Green. The unfortunate thing is four of them were drafted after #18. I've always thought the issue with Green is who he isn't rather than who he is. But, 11 of the guys taken ahead of him probably won't get an offer according to Smith.
RE: MAVS NEWS: Waiting for Draft/FA to start - loki - 06-05-2023
(06-05-2023, 06:01 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: In other Mav's news, Keith Smith predicts the Green extension this summer will be 4/$70mm
JOSH GREEN, DALLAS MAVERICKS
Green started to show some stuff during his second season. In his third year, Green became the Mavs best all-around wing. This is probably going to be a value extension that might catch some off guard.
Prediction: Four years, $70 million
Other than the Max guys, Keith only has a few first round players getting an extension at all:
Max: Edwards, Ball, Halliburton, Maxey, Bane
Non-Max: P. Williams 5/100, Toppin 4/70, Vassell 5/115, Quickley 4/84, J McDaniels 4/100
That's nine players estimated to get more than Green. The unfortunate thing is four of them were drafted after #18. I've always thought the issue with Green is who he isn't rather than who he is. But, 11 of the guys taken ahead of him probably won't get an offer according to Smith.
70m is a little more than I would have expected unless that's in dollarydoos. Let's hope it's closer to the DFS deal.
RE: MAVS NEWS: Waiting for Draft/FA to start - BigDirk41 - 06-05-2023
(06-05-2023, 06:01 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: In other Mav's news, Keith Smith predicts the Green extension this summer will be 4/$70mm
JOSH GREEN, DALLAS MAVERICKS
Green started to show some stuff during his second season. In his third year, Green became the Mavs best all-around wing. This is probably going to be a value extension that might catch some off guard.
Prediction: Four years, $70 million
Other than the Max guys, Keith only has a few first round players getting an extension at all:
Max: Edwards, Ball, Halliburton, Maxey, Bane
Non-Max: P. Williams 5/100, Toppin 4/70, Vassell 5/115, Quickley 4/84, J McDaniels 4/100
That's nine players estimated to get more than Green. The unfortunate thing is four of them were drafted after #18. I've always thought the issue with Green is who he isn't rather than who he is. But, 11 of the guys taken ahead of him probably won't get an offer according to Smith.
I really like Green's potential, but they should trade him if that is the money it will take to keep him. He's not worth that and may never be worth that. 8-10 million per year tops. No thanks on that contract.
RE: MAVS NEWS: Waiting for Draft/FA to start - DanSchwartzgan - 06-05-2023
(06-05-2023, 06:09 PM)loki Wrote: 70m is a little more than I would have expected unless that's in dollarydoos. Let's hope it's closer to the DFS deal.
I was thinking about $56mm on an extension as you think in terms of the player taking a slight discount to get the guarantee a year early. So, DFS isn’t a bad comp. The risk you run is $70mm becomes $84mm or more if you let this go until 2024. Green doesn’t have to take another leap to get that kind of money. He just has to do the best of what he’s already shown for the entire season.
RE: MAVS NEWS: Waiting for Draft/FA to start - RoyTarpleysGhost - 06-05-2023
I don't see him getting that much money. He had his moments but disappeared again at the end of the season. Still a guy that has major confidence issues/plays scared for long stretches.
RE: MAVS NEWS: Waiting for Draft/FA to start - dirkfansince1998 - 06-05-2023
(06-05-2023, 06:38 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I was thinking about $56mm on an extension as you think in terms of the player taking a slight discount to get the guarantee a year early. So, DFS isn’t a bad comp. The risk you run is $70mm becomes $84mm or more if you let this go until 2024. Green doesn’t have to take another leap to get that kind of money. He just has to do the best of what he’s already shown for the entire season.
56/4 would be a little bit less than current MLE projections. Personally I think that is fair value but I agree with your concerns about a potential big pay day if he takes another leap. Don´t think the Mavs can afford to let him walk for nothing. And I really don´t want him to make it to RFA.
RE: MAVS NEWS: Waiting for Draft/FA to start - SleepingHero - 06-05-2023
(06-05-2023, 06:01 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: In other Mav's news, Keith Smith predicts the Green extension this summer will be 4/$70mm
JOSH GREEN, DALLAS MAVERICKS
Green started to show some stuff during his second season. In his third year, Green became the Mavs best all-around wing. This is probably going to be a value extension that might catch some off guard.
Prediction: Four years, $70 million
Other than the Max guys, Keith only has a few first round players getting an extension at all:
Max: Edwards, Ball, Halliburton, Maxey, Bane
Non-Max: P. Williams 5/100, Toppin 4/70, Vassell 5/115, Quickley 4/84, J McDaniels 4/100
That's nine players estimated to get more than Green. The unfortunate thing is four of them were drafted after #18. I've always thought the issue with Green is who he isn't rather than who he is. But, 11 of the guys taken ahead of him probably won't get an offer according to Smith.
I think based on actual production Green's extension should be closer to 4/55. Right at the DFS number. In this new NBA though, it seems as if contracts are always bigger than what most think. Another thing, Green has improved massively since his rookie year. There is a realistic chance he can take another step and we're all ogling at his fit around Luka+Kyrie.
When I first read this, my initial reaction wasn't that of disgust. Anything more than 4/70 feels like a massive overpay. Hopefully the Mavs land somewhere a little lower though.
RE: MAVS NEWS: Waiting for Draft/FA to start - Chicagojk - 06-05-2023
(06-05-2023, 06:01 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: In other Mav's news, Keith Smith predicts the Green extension this summer will be 4/$70mm
JOSH GREEN, DALLAS MAVERICKS
Green started to show some stuff during his second season. In his third year, Green became the Mavs best all-around wing. This is probably going to be a value extension that might catch some off guard.
Prediction: Four years, $70 million
Other than the Max guys, Keith only has a few first round players getting an extension at all:
Max: Edwards, Ball, Halliburton, Maxey, Bane
Non-Max: P. Williams 5/100, Toppin 4/70, Vassell 5/115, Quickley 4/84, J McDaniels 4/100
That's nine players estimated to get more than Green. The unfortunate thing is four of them were drafted after #18. I've always thought the issue with Green is who he isn't rather than who he is. But, 11 of the guys taken ahead of him probably won't get an offer according to Smith.
That is a little higher than I expected. I was hoping for the same thing with Jalen. Take less, but have generational money. He could make more if he waited, but an injury could make that money disappear. Sign him this summer if you view him as a good piece. For gods sake, don’t take the wait and see approach like they tried with Jalen.
RE: MAVS NEWS: Waiting for Draft/FA to start - Chicagojk - 06-05-2023
https://twitter.com/themrdouglass/status/1665871511029264386?s=61&t=-aAylloVlVRI2-DRvoajoA
RE: MAVS NEWS: Waiting for Draft/FA to start - omahen - 06-06-2023
(06-05-2023, 06:01 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: In other Mav's news, Keith Smith predicts the Green extension this summer will be 4/$70mm
JOSH GREEN, DALLAS MAVERICKS
Green started to show some stuff during his second season. In his third year, Green became the Mavs best all-around wing. This is probably going to be a value extension that might catch some off guard.
Prediction: Four years, $70 million
Other than the Max guys, Keith only has a few first round players getting an extension at all:
Max: Edwards, Ball, Halliburton, Maxey, Bane
Non-Max: P. Williams 5/100, Toppin 4/70, Vassell 5/115, Quickley 4/84, J McDaniels 4/100
That's nine players estimated to get more than Green. The unfortunate thing is four of them were drafted after #18. I've always thought the issue with Green is who he isn't rather than who he is. But, 11 of the guys taken ahead of him probably won't get an offer according to Smith.
I think these are overall very high estimations. McDaniels has been great, but I am not sure I would think he is great at 25 per. Vassells number is huge. Toppin didn't prove he is more than a back-up, so paying him almost 20 mil per season is huge. Patrick Williams at 20 per - again, you are looking at a very good starter at this money. Quickley on the other hand, who did have very good numbers when he got the minutes, seems low compared to others.
RE: MAVS NEWS: Waiting for Draft/FA to start - F Gump - 06-06-2023
(06-05-2023, 07:27 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: 56/4 would be a little bit less than current MLE projections.
What? Are you sure?
The new CBA has a limit of 10% cap increases. If we calculate 110% of last year's MLE it lands at only about 11.4M.
The new CBA uses 12.2 for the MLE. It seems unlikely there would be much jump (if any) off that number, in light of the 10% ceiling.
Starting at 12.2M, with max raises, a full MLE deal is only 4/54.
-----
Back to the question of Green, in light of the last half of last season (which is our best evaluation of what we are paying for), 4/70 seems way rich. I can justify a bit over MLE's 54, but not that far over. And one thing these numbers on paper ignore is the reality of a hard cap world, where your payroll has limits (not every half-decent player gets a max), and your payroll limits look something like this, with names inserted:
40-star LUKA 40
40-star KYRIE 40
20-starter and strong supporting player THJ 18
20-starter and strong supporting player [BERTANS 17 - alternate DB sw 4.5 + MLE player]
10 MAXI 11
10 RB 10
5 MCGEE 6
5 #10 PICK 5
2 each - all minimums HARDY
In theory they will try to squeeze an MLE of 12M into the mix somewhere.
So --- In the pecking order going forward, is Green really one of your 20s, or close to it? He's an energy guy, who does good things at times, but I don't see him as one of those 20s. His offense is weak. Defense-only guys get paid less. So far he's just a backup, and some games was close to invisible, even in the back end of the season, which is all the data we have to work with on who he is.
RE: MAVS NEWS: Waiting for Draft/FA to start - ItsGoTime - 06-06-2023
Green is still a project player. You don’t pay projects lots of money. There is a chance he plays up to a $15-18M contract, but there is no way a smart FO bets on that. On a $10-12M contract he can be pretty easily added to any trade if he stays stagnant.
RE: MAVS NEWS: Waiting for Draft/FA to start - BoredAssistant - 06-06-2023
4 years for $60-64mil sounds about right to me. I bet it will be a bargain in 2 years, but if not I would rather he suck here than be great somewhere else. Others will be off the books also.