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+--- Thread: MAVS NEWS: Luka Wins Community Cares Award! | DLive's Mom Passes Away| Maxi OUT (/showthread.php?tid=2172)
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RE: MAVS NEWS: 13th O | 11th D | 8th Net | 9th in West - mvossman - 11-30-2022
(11-30-2022, 03:31 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: In my opinion the SD situation comes down to this. Not good enough on defense to play next to Luka. Not good enough on offense to be the sole creator when Luka is on the bench. No idea how to solve this without major roster moves.
I think you can make the same defense argument for Timmy and Wood (and Bullock this season). There may be something to the sole creator argument, but that is more about lacking talent depth on the roster. The roster issues have been known for a long time, we have guys that can create but not play defense, or guys that can defend but can't create (or Timmy who is not particularly good at either). Just one guy that can create and defend would make this roster so much better.
RE: MAVS NEWS: 13th O | 11th D | 8th Net | 9th in West - KillerLeft - 11-30-2022
Pretty spot on analysis, imo, especially since he's not even a Mavs guy.
https://youtu.be/EaMC5uhjuc4
RE: MAVS NEWS: 13th O | 11th D | 8th Net | 9th in West - Kammrath - 11-30-2022
https://twitter.com/dallasmavs/status/1598090396911177733
RE: MAVS NEWS: 13th O | 11th D | 8th Net | 9th in West - Kammrath - 12-01-2022
Through 20 games....
![[Image: Screenshot-2022-12-01-7.16.34-AM.png]](http://stlukeskck.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Screenshot-2022-12-01-7.16.34-AM.png)
![[Image: Screenshot-2022-12-01-7.13.43-AM.png]](http://stlukeskck.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Screenshot-2022-12-01-7.13.43-AM.png)
Through 20 games RAPTOR seems much more accurate to my eye test and smell test than EPM. Will be interesting to follow as they get more data.
RE: MAVS NEWS: 13th O | 11th D | 8th Net | 9th in West - Smitty - 12-01-2022
(12-01-2022, 08:18 AM)Kammrath Wrote: Through 20 games....
Through 20 games RAPTOR seems much more accurate o my eye test and smell test than EPM. Will be interesting to follow as they get more data.
Anything that has McGee above Kleber can be thrown in the trash. Yikes!
RE: MAVS NEWS: 13th O | 11th D | 8th Net | 9th in West - Kammrath - 12-01-2022
(12-01-2022, 08:38 AM)Smitty Wrote: Anything that has McGee above Kleber can be thrown in the trash. Yikes!
Yeah, EPM not looking accurate this year.
RE: MAVS NEWS: 13th O | 11th D | 8th Net | 9th in West - mvossman - 12-01-2022
(12-01-2022, 08:56 AM)Kammrath Wrote: Yeah, EPM not looking accurate this year.
To my eye, the EPM looks more accurate. The only number that seems really off is Maxi defense. I see more glaring issues in the Raptor data:
Powell is not an elite defender and is not the second best player on the team.
Timmy has not been good and not better than Wood, Dorian and Dinwiddie
It will be interesting to see how this plays out throughout the year. Last year I thought Lebron made more sense early on (they don't even have numbers out yet for this season) but EPM looked better by the end. I think there is more general disagreement on player impact early this season than last.
RE: MAVS NEWS: 13th O | 11th D | 8th Net | 9th in West - KillerLeft - 12-01-2022
(12-01-2022, 12:19 PM)mvossman Wrote: Powell is not an elite defender
![[Image: giphy.gif]](https://media4.giphy.com/media/KtbPylMXJ6IPS/giphy.gif)
RE: MAVS NEWS: 13th O | 11th D | 8th Net | 9th in West - mvossman - 12-01-2022
(12-01-2022, 12:21 PM)KillerLeft Wrote:
Do you really think he is elite? I feel like its really hard to be an elite defensive center when you can't protect the rim or rebound. I realize his ability to switch is a big plus, but calling him elite seems like a huge stretch.
How about this one, Raptor suggests Wood is a good defensive player but poor offensive player. Does that make sense?
RE: MAVS NEWS: 13th O | 11th D | 8th Net | 9th in West - Kammrath - 12-01-2022
(12-01-2022, 12:33 PM)mvossman Wrote: Do you really think he is elite?
I have watched almost every minute of the Mavs this year and his IMPACT on the D has been "elite" relative to the rest of the team this year so far in 20 games. RAPTOR looks really solid through 20 games, almost matches my eye test step for step.
RE: MAVS NEWS: 13th O | 11th D | 8th Net | 9th in West - mvossman - 12-01-2022
(12-01-2022, 01:26 PM)Kammrath Wrote: I have watched almost every minute of the Mavs this year and his IMPACT on the D has been "elite" relative to the rest of the team this year so far in 20 games. RAPTOR looks really solid through 20 games, almost matches my eye test step for step.
Yeah we definitely have different eyes. I see a guy who brings a lot of energy and is a turnstile at the rim. So you really think Wood has been much better on defense than offense and Timmy has been better than Wood?
RE: MAVS NEWS: 13th O | 11th D | 8th Net | 9th in West - Kammrath - 12-01-2022
(12-01-2022, 01:51 PM)mvossman Wrote: So you really think Wood has been much better on defense than offense and Timmy has been better than Wood?
I think Wood has been solid on D. People have been hunting for mistakes from him (and all players have them), but I have been pleasantly surprised with his effort and engagement on that end. I think Wood has looked lost offensively for a good number of games, not knowing where his role is in all this.
THJ is the one guy where RAPTOR seems to be largely astray from my impressions.
RE: MAVS NEWS: 13th O | 11th D | 8th Net | 9th in West - Kammrath - 12-01-2022
And for the record I thought EPM was really good last year. But I expect these advanced stats with complex formulas to have quite a bit of noise and not be the best year after year.
RE: MAVS NEWS: 13th O | 11th D | 8th Net | 9th in West - dirkfansince1998 - 12-01-2022
(12-01-2022, 01:54 PM)Kammrath Wrote: I think Wood has been solid on D. People have been hunting for mistakes from him (and all players have them), but I have been pleasantly surprised with his effort and engagement on that end. I think Wood has looked lost offensively for a good number of games, not knowing where his role is in all this.
THJ is the one guy where RAPTOR seems to be largely astray from my impressions.
From my point of view...
Wood´s defense declined in the last few games. Feels like his first 10 games were a lot better. Last 2-3 he was the worst defender on the floor.
THJ is benefiting from Bullock decline and the minutes he plays next to Green. Bullock has been so freaking bad that even THJ looks like a good defender in comparisation.
RE: MAVS NEWS: 13th O | 11th D | 8th Net | 9th in West - mvossman - 12-01-2022
(12-01-2022, 01:56 PM)Kammrath Wrote: And for the record I thought EPM was really good last year. But I expect these advanced stats with complex formulas to have quite a bit of noise and not be the best year after year.
Ironically advanced stats are noisy to the degree they incorporate on/off calculations. On the spectrum of noise, box score stats have the least and raw on/off has the most. The biggest goal of advanced stats that incorporate on/off is to reduce the noise that brings as much as possible.
Also ironically, Raptor is known to be less accurate in smaller samples, my guess being due to incorporating on/off more than some of the others (its results look much closer to raw on/off where EPM looks closer to an advanced box score stat like BPM).
RE: MAVS NEWS: 13th O | 11th D | 8th Net | 9th in West - Chicagojk - 12-01-2022
https://twitter.com/mikelikessports/status/1598374016355602445
Here is something I found on the article that has been bugging me about Wood. Sidenote, McGee in his limited playing time was also doing this. As much as I dislike Luka doing it, he is Luka. You can't have others not busting their butts back down the court:
For all his brilliance, Doncic is a big part of the reason why the Mavericks regressed from the third-best team in transition defense last year to the third-worst this season, and pairing him with another poor transition defender in Wood only makes matters worse. This team can’t survive without Doncic off the floor, so when push comes to shove, Wood’s minutes take a hit.
RE: MAVS NEWS: 13th O | 11th D | 8th Net | 9th in West - StrandedOnBeauboisHill - 12-01-2022
(12-01-2022, 03:08 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: https://twitter.com/mikelikessports/status/1598374016355602445
Here is something I found on the article that has been bugging me about Wood. Sidenote, McGee in his limited playing time was also doing this. As much as I dislike Luka doing it, he is Luka. You can't have others not busting their butts back down the court:
For all his brilliance, Doncic is a big part of the reason why the Mavericks regressed from the third-best team in transition defense last year to the third-worst this season, and pairing him with another poor transition defender in Wood only makes matters worse. This team can’t survive without Doncic off the floor, so when push comes to shove, Wood’s minutes take a hit.
Interesting, I haven't really been paying attention to Wood in transition but I'm going to start, normally feels like he fails miserably at properly X'ing out on rotations but I'm sure there's more. Definitely have felt Luka's "transition defense" to be a huge problem though, worse than usual.
RE: MAVS NEWS: 13th O | 11th D | 8th Net | 9th in West - DanSchwartzgan - 12-01-2022
(11-30-2022, 01:53 PM)Kammrath Wrote: It has been the obvious move IMO for most of the season. I do not get why the coaching staff has dug in, refusing to see the light.
Luka
THJ/JG
DFS
Maxi
Wood
Should be the starting five.
SD
JG/THJ
RB
DP
Should be the main bench guys.
I wanted to explore this a little while I had some time today. First, let me say that I'd probably have tried Wood/Maxi starting (with DFS/Green/Luka) if it were me. But, there are some challenges to making the rest of the rotation work around this lineup.
1. I think we have to consider Maxi's limitations as about a 24 minute a game guy. If you want him to start and finish halves, then his 24 minutes would be the first and last six minutes of each half. There just isn't much point in subbing him out sooner than six minutes into the half. Most teams leave starters in for about 8 minutes, sit them for 8 and bring them back for the final 8. Maxi can't quite do that. You can play around and do 8 on then 12 off then 4 on, but ultimately the issue is the same.
2. Pairing Maxi with Wood to start and finish halves together eats up most of Wood's minutes. This is a good thing as they play well together. But, if Wood gets 32, then you have about 4 minutes a half of Wood as solo-big and then need 8 minutes a half with Powell as solo-big. Yes, you can overlap that some by playing Powell more minutes. Kidd has only tried that 17 minutes all season. Instead Kidd is giving Wood and Powell (or McGee when he plays) about the amount of solo-big minutes listed above. So, the lineup change is essentially just mixing up when they occur with one exception... the unintended consequence of moving Wood/Maxi to starter status and Powell to the bench is....
3. We only have one Dorian. If you want him starting and finishing halves, there isn't enough of him to also play during the solo-big minutes for Wood and Powell. Without him we are playing those minutes with an undersized center and a bunch of guards. When you put Wood/Maxi/DFS together for significant time there just isn't enough Dorian to also cover 16 minutes of Powell-solo big time and 8 minutes of Wood solo-big time and play.
I think you need another player like Maxi or DFS to make the Maxi/Wood starting lineup work. Or, you have to split up the Wood/Maxi/DFS starting trio. That is essentially what Kidd has done. He's just chosen to do it differently by starting Powell/DFS. They are +5.6 together. Maxi with Wood come off the bench and are +8.4. Going the other way around, the pairings aren't nearly as good. Wood/DFS is -2.6. Powell/Maxi +0.0. And, the 3-man lineups with Luka are also better the way Kidd is doing it. Powell/DFS/Luka is +9.3. Wood/Maxi/Luka is +16. Wood/DFS/Luka is -4.6. I think if we hid the names your affinity for +/- might lead you to the same conclusion as Kidd if you take into account that DFS can't play 48 minutes. At the very least, what he's doing isn't idiotic or stubborn or a plot to undermine the team or the GM.
As I've said before, I'd prioritize building up Wood's minutes over starting him. That might change if we traded for someone like Crowder. Short of that, the Powell/DFS and Wood/Maxi pairings make a lot of sense. It feels to me like Kidd is trying to make the shortcomings of Powell and Wood work as best he can while also positioning things to have DFS and Maxi finish halves. I'd probably prefer to continue playing around with what Kidd is doing around Powell/DFS/Luka (the THJ experiment). I might also try a Green experiment and even a THJ/Green experiment (moving SD to the bench) before I'd go through the gyrations necessary to make a Wood/Maxi starting lineup work. Even more important than that though would be to find a closing lineup that works and give that group time to gel before the playoffs...especially if that grouping includes a younger player like Green. He needs reps if he's going to be counted on in that role.
RE: MAVS NEWS: 13th O | 11th D | 8th Net | 9th in West - JamesConway912 - 12-01-2022
https://twitter.com/grantafseth/status/1598451488946376728?s=46&t=xd5CPo8BOcRkxGugSiCiIg
RE: MAVS NEWS: 13th O | 11th D | 8th Net | 9th in West - vfromlmf - 12-01-2022
(12-01-2022, 05:28 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: the unintended consequence of moving Wood/Maxi to starter status and Powell to the bench is....
3. We only have one Dorian.
Nailed it. I read today that Maxi actually has a hard cap on minutes at 25. It's obvious that his minutes are managed but this was the first I've heard about a hard cap.
Anyway, your post should be a must-read. It's easy enough to just say play your best guys at least 32 minutes but it's not so easy when you think about these players are humans that need rest and don't want to be in and out of the game without a plan. I think Kidd understands that, maybe better than Rick Carlisle who didn't have much trouble with yo-yo-ing guys around.