NBA TRADE TALK: TDL over - Printable Version

NBA TRADE TALK: TDL over - Printable Version

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RE: NBA TRADE TALK: TDL: Feb 10, 2 pm | BS prefers DAL/GSW | JC 'frustrated' in ATL - Chicagojk - 01-15-2022

I will be shocked if KP is moved prior to the trading deadline.

I will be surprised if Hardaway is moved prior to the trading deadline.

I expect Chriss to remain on the roster someway.

RE: NBA TRADE TALK: TDL: Feb 10, 2 pm | BS prefers DAL/GSW | JC 'frustrated' in ATL - Kammrath - 01-15-2022

(01-15-2022, 04:46 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: I will be shocked if KP is moved prior to the trading deadline.

I will be surprised if Hardaway is moved prior to the trading deadline.

I expect Chriss to remain on the roster someway.

Do you expect both JB and DFS to be on the roster after the TDL?

RE: NBA TRADE TALK: TDL: Feb 10, 2 pm | BS prefers DAL/GSW | JC 'frustrated' in ATL - Chicagojk - 01-15-2022

(01-15-2022, 04:54 PM)Kammrath Wrote: Do you expect both JB and DFS to be on the roster after the TDL?

Tough question. I would say yes, but that is a gut call. I would say JB is more likely to stay if one is moved.

BTW, I am usually wrong anyway.

RE: NBA TRADE TALK: TDL: Feb 10, 2 pm | BS prefers DAL/GSW | JC 'frustrated' in ATL - mvossman - 01-15-2022

(01-15-2022, 04:55 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: Tough question. I would say yes, but that is a gut call. I would say JB is more likely to stay if one is moved.

BTW, I am usually wrong anyway.

If they are all still on the team, it will be tough to keep everyone and stay under the tax (and it will be a travesty if someone walks).

I can almost guarantee if they trade DFS I will be pissed because I don't think he can bring back the value he provides in a trade.

RE: NBA TRADE TALK: TDL: Feb 10, 2 pm | BS prefers DAL/GSW | JC 'frustrated' in ATL - Scott41theMavs - 01-15-2022

(01-15-2022, 05:39 PM)mvossman Wrote: If they are all still on the team, it will be tough to keep everyone and stay under the tax (and it will be a travesty if someone walks).

I can almost guarantee if they trade DFS I will be pissed because I don't think he can bring back the value he provides in a trade.

Remember Crowder?

We'll rue the day a lot more if we trade DFS.

RE: NBA TRADE TALK: TDL: Feb 10, 2 pm | BS prefers DAL/GSW | JC 'frustrated' in ATL - cow - 01-15-2022

The more I think about DFS, the less likely it is I think he'll get moved. It's not that teams wouldn't want him but since his contract is expiring I can't imagine he'd return much value and even if you can't retain him after the season, his value to the Mavericks is too high if they want to have any sort of playoff success. He is certainly more valuable than WCS (contracts are about equal) but I don't think that would be make or break in any deal as you probably aren't trading with a contender.

RE: NBA TRADE TALK: TDL: Feb 10, 2 pm | BS prefers DAL/GSW | JC 'frustrated' in ATL - burekemde - 01-15-2022

(01-15-2022, 04:12 PM)BackToSquareOne Wrote: The Garden of Forking Paths.

If you torture the numbers enough I'm sure you can find a way to make them 'support' your eye test.

Or turn that around: You could only look at the final number (a single +/-) impacted by myriad of variables, and chose the one you like to see? It tells that WCS is better player than Luka! That alone is evidence of the extreme noise in this statistic. +/- single number needs to be understood, split in further numbers, situations of games, in order to understand it properly.

If basketball was so simple to only look at one number, to tell you all, basketball would be super simple game. We should just sign the best +/- and we would win a championship. Unfortunately, it does not work that way. No, instead basketball is super complicated, impacted by myriad of factors and variables, and it is not possible to boil it down to a single variable number.

RE: NBA TRADE TALK: TDL: Feb 10, 2 pm | BS prefers DAL/GSW | JC 'frustrated' in ATL - burekemde - 01-15-2022

(01-15-2022, 04:40 PM)sefant Wrote: Trifecta of evil on full display during the Grizzlies game.

Luka - Brunson - THJ - DFS - Chriss
-140.0 in 2 min

Luka - Brunson - THJ - DFS - Powell
-9.1 in 9 min

Luka - Brunson - DFS - Kleber - Powell
+13.8 in 13 min

Thanks sefant! This might indicated that Luka-Brunson tandem plays better with Kleber, and with two bigs, than they do with the small ball with DFS at PF. In fact, they have a positive number there.

How about this +/- number? Luka-Brunson are at +13.8!

This clearly indicates that Luka-Brunson are great, but depend on the other 3 to play within their style of game.

The problem with +/- is that it needs to be boiled down even further, even further, even further. Because there are even more variables than this one. And when you boil down things to the point where +/- might be of something use, you lose the significance in not having enough data. A few minutes is simply not enough to deduce a certain pattern. But if you use the overall +/- you maybe have enough data, but impacted with too many different lineups, schemes, situations etc. That's why the +/- is highly irrelevant and too noisy...

I think this illustrates very well the issue with +/- stats and using a single number to tell something extremely complex.

Not that i dont think +/- should not be posted. Its interesting to look at. Just reminder that its extremely noisy.

Now back to the eye test and not revealed in those +/- is that one of the few weak points in Brunsons game is difficult to enter the paint when he is the focal point. However, I notice that when Luka has the ball and draws defense attention and passes to Brunson, either directly or through another teammate, Brunsons ability to enter the paint significantly increases. He is extremely efficient in these situations. Luka opens this up. And Luka has lacked this really a lot. Before it was all about shooting. Luka opens space - we shoot. Luka opens space - we shoot. Now with Brunson, this space can be converted into penetration to the paint, and here is a player Brunson that knows how to use that space when in the paint. Its a completely diffefent level that Luka-Brunson tandem can reach comapred to Luka-THJ and others!

Perhaps it might be that the above lineups with THJ dont work as he tends to destroy this Luka-Brunson cooperativity in attacking the paint. But it could be other factors as well. THJ has tendency to quickly take a shot and prevent this effect from occuring between Luka and Brunson. It could also be that defense is just not good with THJ playing there with them. THJ has been in general awful, on both ends of the floor, and this may be a lot his fault. What is clear to me is the positive effect of Luka and Brunson in attacking the paint. Once they interact, one of them will get to the paint very easy. And they are both deadly in those situations. This effect, is something we need to build our entire franchise around IMO. And we should really try add Sabonis, a big that can screen, drive and pass, and only further increase this cooperativity between Luka and Brunson and their ability to enter the paint.

RE: NBA TRADE TALK: TDL: Feb 10, 2 pm | BS prefers DAL/GSW | JC 'frustrated' in ATL - burekemde - 01-16-2022

Luka-Brunson again a fantastic tandem yesterday and played a lot together. Build around the two Cuban.

RE: NBA TRADE TALK: TDL: Feb 10, 2 pm | BS prefers DAL/GSW | JC 'frustrated' in ATL - ballsrchr - 01-16-2022

(01-16-2022, 03:28 AM)burekemde Wrote: Luka-Brunson again a fantastic tandem yesterday and played a lot together. Build around the two Cuban.

I like this idea, but I question whether the Mavs will be able to keep Brunson. JB is going to get a payday. Maybe if we can trade THJ...and give JB that payday--then put in the time to build around the Luka-Brunson tandem.

I don't think the Luka-KP tandem is the foundation to build around. KP also seems to be a prima donna who wants the ball too often in situations (high post, etc.) that he doesn't play in very well.

Yes, yes--I'm in the trade KP camp while his value is "high" and before he is injured, again...

I would love to keep JB, but I think he will cost too much. Maybe we should just bite the bullet...

RE: NBA TRADE TALK: TDL: Feb 10, 2 pm | BS prefers DAL/GSW | JC 'frustrated' in ATL - Borkhan - 01-16-2022

I think that JB and DFS have, deservedly, with their advancement raised their new contract price at the end of the season so high, that maybe mavs know they will not be able to afford it. In this case a trade now would make sense. And as supposedly Knicks want JB badly, it would all be according to the unwritten tradition Smile

RE: NBA TRADE TALK: TDL: Feb 10, 2 pm | BS prefers DAL/GSW | JC 'frustrated' in ATL - ItsGoTime - 01-16-2022

All I want from NY is our 2023 back, I’d take RJ, but they won’t give, so nothing to see there. It would have to be a 3 team where we are giving them JB and they’re giving us the 2023 and then they’re convincing another team to give up the remaining player value for our less-wanted contracts.

RE: NBA TRADE TALK: TDL: Feb 10, 2 pm | BS prefers DAL/GSW | JC 'frustrated' in ATL - F Gump - 01-16-2022

(01-16-2022, 10:14 AM)ballsrchr Wrote: I like this idea, but I question whether the Mavs will be able to keep Brunson. JB is going to get a payday. Maybe if we can trade THJ...and give JB that payday--then put in the time to build around the Luka-Brunson tandem.

I don't think the Luka-KP tandem is the foundation to build around. KP also seems to be a prima donna who wants the ball too often in situations (high post, etc.) that he doesn't play in very well.

Yes, yes--I'm in the trade KP camp while his value is "high" and before he is injured, again...

I would love to keep JB, but I think he will cost too much. Maybe we should just bite the bullet...

I still don't understand the thinking that since JB is worth a lot, and is going to get paid what he's worth, then that somehow will make him "cost too much" for the Mavs price range. (Of course, if we are thinking JB will get paid way way more than he's worth, that's a different matter, but I don't think that's what's being said.)

The Mavs have certainly been needing better talent overall. But better talent costs more money. ~shrug~

In addition, there is no rules restriction -- the Mavs do have the ability, under the rules, to pay JB (and DFS too) whatever it takes. It's only a matter of their willingness to pay.

So as I see it, if JB is a highly talented key player, you pay him. Should Cuban be too cheap or broke to pay what it takes to put a more talented team on the floor, he needs to get out of the business.

RE: NBA TRADE TALK: TDL: Feb 10, 2 pm | BS prefers DAL/GSW | JC 'frustrated' in ATL - burekemde - 01-16-2022

(01-16-2022, 02:38 PM)F Gump Wrote: The Mavs have certainly been needing better talent overall. But better talent costs more money. ~shrug~

Great points F Gump. Totally agree. No shadow of a doubt Brunson is the second best talent on this team. Second best skill-set on the team. His skill level at some points of the basketball game even approaches that of Luka, which is scary. After Luka, then followed by Brunson, there is this immense massive gap in terms of skill as well as talent level to the next player. You simply pay for that unique skill and talent. It costs. Fully agree on that. The main reason for that the team didn't collapse after Lukas absence is Brunson's brilliance. You pay for that. In a year or two, Brunson will be worth even more.

RE: NBA TRADE TALK: TDL: Feb 10, 2 pm | BS prefers DAL/GSW | JC 'frustrated' in ATL - Not an evil robot - 01-16-2022

(01-16-2022, 02:38 PM)F Gump Wrote: I still don't understand the thinking that since JB is worth a lot, and is going to get paid what he's worth, then that somehow will make him "cost too much" for the Mavs price range. (Of course, if we are thinking JB will get paid way way more than he's worth, that's a different matter, but I don't think that's what's being said.)

The Mavs have certainly been needing better talent overall. But better talent costs more money. ~shrug~

In addition, there is no rules restriction -- the Mavs do have the ability, under the rules, to pay JB (and DFS too) whatever it takes. It's only a matter of their willingness to pay.

So as I see it, if JB is a highly talented key player, you pay him. Should Cuban be too cheap or broke to pay what it takes to put a more talented team on the floor, he needs to get out of the business.

I think the most logical defense of that thinking is unless you are 100% convinced Brunson is the long term answer as Luka’s backcourt partner (and that’s different than thinking the pairing looks pretty good so far), you want Brunson to be a positive value asset on his next contract. If the interest of other teams looks like it will drive Brunson’s next contract into negative value, there’s an argument to cash in despite it reducing the current amount of talent. Because if the pairing doesn’t work out due to limitations, paying someone to take Brunson (again, potentially negative value to contract) is unthinkable. Not that different than conversations around THJ and KP to be honest, although Brunson is probably less risky for a few reasons.

I’m in no way able to tell you where the line is for any player (including Brunson), but I sure hope the new regime is thinking in terms of risk-adjusted asset accumulation.

RE: NBA TRADE TALK: TDL: Feb 10, 2 pm | BS prefers DAL/GSW | JC 'frustrated' in ATL - cow - 01-16-2022

(01-16-2022, 02:38 PM)F Gump Wrote: So as I see it, if JB is a highly talented key player, you pay him. Should Cuban be too cheap or broke to pay what it takes to put a more talented team on the floor, he needs to get out of the business.

$138m committed to the team without resigning JB and DFS. Current luxury tax is projected at $145m next year. What do we think JB + DFS would take to resign? Conservatively, I'd say $30m combined. $23m over the tax line is a little over $56m. Chickens may be coming home to roost on some of our poor contract decisions in prior years.

RE: NBA TRADE TALK: TDL: Feb 10, 2 pm | BS prefers DAL/GSW | JC 'frustrated' in ATL - ItsGoTime - 01-16-2022

(01-16-2022, 03:55 PM)cow Wrote: Chickens may be coming home to roost on some of our poor contract decisions in prior years.

Which were called out by many here to the reply of "market value"...

RE: NBA TRADE TALK: TDL: Feb 10, 2 pm | BS prefers DAL/GSW | JC 'frustrated' in ATL - Tyler - 01-16-2022

(01-16-2022, 03:55 PM)cow Wrote: $138m committed to the team without resigning JB and DFS. Current luxury tax is projected at $145m next year. What do we think JB + DFS would take to resign? Conservatively, I'd say $30m combined. $23m over the tax line is a little over $56m. Chickens may be coming home to roost on some of our poor contract decisions in prior years.

Note that Dallas has less than $100mm in committed contracts in 23/24 with Maxi and Powell coming off the books and Bullock not guaranteed. So even if they pay the tax next year there will already be significant relief lined up the year after. Maxi's contract next year is also not guaranteed if it comes to that, and other guys could be movable.

There are more ways to manage tax beyond letting your most desirable players walk away. So while I totally agree that the payroll is a concern, I don’t think it will necessarily prevent Dallas from keeping their FAs this off-season.

RE: NBA TRADE TALK: TDL: Feb 10, 2 pm | BS prefers DAL/GSW | JC 'frustrated' in ATL - ItsGoTime - 01-16-2022

If DP was paid $4M, he'd be an asset, if MK was paid $5-6M, he'd be a much better asset, if THJ was paid more appropriately at $12M, he might still not be an asset, but much more stomachable, esp if it was a declining contract. If JB was given a contract that allowed us to make him a RFA, we'd be in a much better drivers seat (at this point, I don't know if that was even possible, I'm so lost lately on CBA stuff these days).

Honestly, if we had paid DFS a bit more on his last contract, I'd feel a bit less uneasy with his expiring right now. Funny how they had such great "vision" as to pay DP and MK for what they thought they'd be worth and didn't have that "vision" for DFS.

WCS was given more money because he asked to get a bump in pay...

Burke got a raise when no one would pay more than vet min for him.

Boban needs to be paid no more than vet min, if paid at all.

KP needs his salary cut in the same % he's able to attend games suited up, not in a suit. He should have been given playing incentive bonuses on that contract that allows him to get to that max contract value based on attendance.

I realize we probably don't resign KP or THJ at those costs, maybe that would have been a blessing in disguise? Who knows what we could have NOT done with more money during those FA times?

RE: NBA TRADE TALK: TDL: Feb 10, 2 pm | BS prefers DAL/GSW | JC 'frustrated' in ATL - cow - 01-16-2022

(01-16-2022, 04:15 PM)Tyler Wrote: Note that Dallas has less than $100mm in committed contracts in 23/24 with Maxi and Powell coming off the books and Bullock not guaranteed. So even if they pay the tax next year there will already be significant relief lined up the year after. Maxi's contract next year is also not guaranteed if it comes to that, and other guys could be movable.

There are more ways to manage tax beyond letting your most desirable players walk away. So while I totally agree that the payroll is a concern, I don’t think it will necessarily prevent Dallas from keeping their FAs this off-season.

I'm not even addressing repeater tax. I'm just skeptical of Cuban wanting to pay that much tax. If you want to Keep DFS and JB, maybe you sacrifice Maxi and pay to get off of Powell's contract. That's the chickens coming home to roost. I'd almost be willing to bet that both JB and DFS aren't on the team next year.