(06-02-2024, 07:06 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Some other interesting data.  DJJ has the worst D-Rating of any of the top 7 in our playoff rotation (starters plus Lively and Green) at 116.  Green is 4th best at 112.  Jones has the 6th best WS/48 at .096 slightly beating out PJ at 0.91 (Green is .130).  DJJ has the 7th best PER at 11.1 (Green is 12.1).  Green is historically the better three point shooter, but in the playoffs he trails Jones.  If Josh made two more of his 48 attempted 3's (or Jones missed two of his 53 attempted 3's), they'd be the same there.

I continue to think Jones is 'worth' more than the TP MLE.  Whether someone will pay it or not is another question.  It would probably be a sacrifice on his part to take the $5.2mm on a 1+1.  If he does, great.  But, I still don't think you 'burn' the THJ expiring contract 'just' to get Jones more than the TP MLE.  Green with consistent minutes is roughly equivalent to Jones Jr.  I'd rather use THJ plus some draft assets toward improvement as that combo probably gets you a player who is just as good as or better than either Jones or Green (and you'd still have the TP MLE to spend on someone else if Jones Jr. left).

(06-02-2024, 08:41 AM)Mavs2021 Wrote: Now you are really being ungrateful. People cut you some slack after your seven year advanced stats journey to prove that Dwight Powell is more than a Mark Madsen towel waiver on a championship team. And now you can´t even last two days before you start the same mess with Josh Green (and DJJ). 

Come on man.

(06-02-2024, 07:06 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote:  I still don't think you 'burn' the THJ expiring contract 'just' to get Jones more than the TP MLE.   

(06-02-2024, 11:16 AM)mvossman Wrote:  
I'm not sure holding onto Timmy until the TDL is going to be an option the FO wants to take.  As he is falling completely out of the playoff rotation, I think both sides are going to want to move him to a different situation sooner rather than later.  

I think its really hard to make the argument that we should let one of our young starters on an NBA finals team walk because we might get a little more value out of THJ expiring contract at the TDL.

(06-02-2024, 11:16 AM)mvossman Wrote: I feel like both the long term advanced data and the eye test show that DJJ is a considerably better defender than Green.  Comparing D rating in the playoffs is a little bit apples to oranges as DJJ has been matched against the opposing teams best offensive player and Green has been coming off the bench when a lot of times that opposing offensive player is not even on the floor.  If we look at D rating for the season Green has the worst on the team.
 

(06-02-2024, 02:43 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I think your "we should let one of our young starters on an NBA finals team walk because we might get a little more value out of THJ expiring contract at the TDL" statement is a misunderstanding or a misstatement of my position.  I have said at times that I think the best value for THJ is at the TDL.  I think that is true, but it is a stand-alone statement not related to the DJJ resigning.  The 2025 pick would be that much closer to reality at the TDL and THJ would be a matter of weeks from expiring.  If DJJ happens to sign for the TP MLE, then that kind of patience is a theoretical possibility.

The other thing I've said is I doubt a championship level team burns an asset to stand still (which is what trading THJ just to keep DJJ would be).  The latest thing I've written talks about how THJ might be used in a June trade (we will see if the thought holds up to FG's scrutiny).  Trading THJ for value in June obviously could work if we retain DJJ for the TP MLE (we'd have to be careful with the second apron).  The tougher question (and this is where Josh Green comes in) is what do you do with THJ if DJJ wants 1. the NT MLE or 2. gets a Bruce Brown type offer.  If #2, you don't have a path to that number so it is Green plus whatever you can get for THJ replacing DJJ not matter what people think.  

If #1, I don't see enough difference between Green and DJJ that I want to spend THJ and probably a pick to keep him when I can instead use THJ and a pick to improve upon him.  BTW, anyone who thinks it will be easy to clear salary hasn't been paying attention to the new CBA and all of the trouble it will cause about half the league this upcoming season.  All the old rules (like a late first to clear $20mm of salary) have to be thrown out because we just don't know at this point.  

DJJ has been on a magical run.  We saw something similar with Bullock two years ago and where is he now.  I was a huge fan of the signing at the time and really like having DJJ.  But, there is a number I'm not willing to pay.  It is about the opportunity cost of doing something else more than it is a concern for overpaying DJJ.  If we had easy access to the NT MLE, I'd give it to him without hesitation.  But, that isn't where we find ourselves.

(06-02-2024, 03:59 PM)F Gump Wrote: I think the best way to lose DJJ is a THJ trade in June whose end result is someone else getting bigger money, and taking minutes. And then DJJ is offered the leftovers in July.

I think that if DJJ is the priority, he has to be treated that way. Resolve his situation with an agreement that is a TxMLE, or with an agreement that getting $__M to pay him is acceptable to him, and keeping him in the loop all the way.

I think THJ gets traded rather than kept. I have no feel for what that will look like, or what it will cost, but the fact he was DNP in the G5 blowout spoke volumes. Not even a courtesy chance to somehow contribute, and feel good about playing? To acknowledge "veteran contribution" during the year? Not sure what he did to get buried that deep, but that bridge has been burned to ashes.

(06-02-2024, 07:06 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: One of these is Bruce Brown in the 22/23 Playoffs and the other is DJJ in the 23/24 Playoffs


              Player 1     Player 2

Age          27            26
Points       9.8           12.0
Reb          3.8           4.0
FG%        .492          .511
3%          .396          .316
VORP        0.3           0.4
WS/48      .096          .141
PER          11.1          15.5   
D-Rtg       116            109
On Ct        +7.4          +10.5
On-Off       +5.8         +4.1

Some other interesting data.  DJJ has the worst D-Rating of any of the top 7 in our playoff rotation (starters plus Lively and Green) at 116.  Green is 4th best at 112.  Jones has the 6th best WS/48 at .096 slightly beating out PJ at 0.91 (Green is .130).  DJJ has the 7th best PER at 11.1 (Green is 12.1).  Green is historically the better three point shooter, but in the playoffs he trails Jones.  If Josh made two more of his 48 attempted 3's (or Jones missed two of his 53 attempted 3's), they'd be the same there.

I continue to think Jones is 'worth' more than the TP MLE.  Whether someone will pay it or not is another question.  It would probably be a sacrifice on his part to take the $5.2mm on a 1+1.  If he does, great.  But, I still don't think you 'burn' the THJ expiring contract 'just' to get Jones more than the TP MLE.  Green with consistent minutes is roughly equivalent to Jones Jr.  I'd rather use THJ plus some draft assets toward improvement as that combo probably gets you a player who is just as good as or better than either Jones or Green (and you'd still have the TP MLE to spend on someone else if Jones Jr. left).

(06-02-2024, 11:21 AM)mvossman Wrote: I saw this silly comment in the game thread and its one of the reasons I avoid the game threads.  Like 3 minutes in a playoff game after not playing meaningful basketball in months invalidates 7 years of a career.

(06-02-2024, 05:28 PM)Mavs2021 Wrote: Silly comment. I´m sorry. Invalidate what? I have made it perfectly clear that Dwight Powell is a reliable regular season back-up. And he has never been anything more.

Quite frankly I have shown some great restraint! Given the moment the Mavs finally did all the stupid sh*t I have been fighting with most of you for over a decade, it landed them in the NBA finals 12 months later.   

I find it a bit insulting that he now back comes with the same spill, like he literally learned absolutely nothing from the past, when he completely ignored the eye-test part of the equation to make a more well-rounded observation of a player.

We literally got a reminder of the difference between Powell and Lively´s rim protection impact in game four.

You saw it. I saw it. Everybody knows it. Dwight Powell himself knows it.

Josh Green is a hustle player, whose effort and 3pt shooting make him a useful bench player/situational player, but the moment he is asked to defend a star player on the other team his physical limitations get exposed, just like they were with Dwight Powell. Due to his weak physical strength and short arms Green simply does not register as a one on one defender. He doesn´t fight over screens well enough and he is not athletic/long enough to deter any star player from getting a comfortable shot. DJJ can do all those things.

(06-02-2024, 04:14 PM)Jmaciscool Wrote: This is one of the biggest things I've been wondering about recently.  What happened to THJ? He went from 6th man of the year candidate early in the season to DNP-CDs.

I know he was on a bad streak for a while, but he's always been that way.  Just seems odd to me.

(06-02-2024, 05:31 PM)RGP1981 Wrote: Everything you're saying is true... but Josh still intrigues me as a defender on the opposing team's best small guard. It's situational. He needs to be more aggressive and impactful on offense though, for the intrigue to sustain itself, and transform itself into thinking that he's a must-keep on this roster.

(06-02-2024, 05:31 PM)RGP1981 Wrote: What you're saying above is very true... but Josh still intrigues me as a defender on the opposing team's best quick small guard. He needs to be more aggressive and impactful on offense though, for the intrigue to sustain itself, and transform itself into thinking that he's a must-keep on this roster. And if he doesn't, then I would prefer to swap him out for Grimes or Iso Joe.

(06-02-2024, 05:37 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: Green is so hard to pin down, but I'm currently headed the opposite direction as you on him.

(06-02-2024, 06:49 PM)Smitty Wrote: It was trade Gafford last week. Now trade 23 year old Green this week. We’re clearly not used to talking NBA Finals basketball in June. Those two have had pretty big impacts on what could be a championship team.

(06-02-2024, 06:50 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: This misunderstands my point so badly, I'm convinced it's intentionally designed to be misleading.