2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived - Printable Version +- MavsBoard (https://www.mavsboard.com) +-- Forum: Boards (https://www.mavsboard.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=1) +--- Forum: Dallas Mavericks and the NBA (https://www.mavsboard.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=2) +--- Thread: 2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived (/showthread.php?tid=682) Pages:
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RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - mvossman - 07-02-2021 (07-02-2021, 08:17 PM)cow Wrote: You need more than just "stars". Of your list, Ball is the only attractive option but I think someone (New York) is going to break the bank for him and regret it soon after. There is no future in DeRozan, Conley or Lowry and we aren't close enough to be a contender. Those types of players will just help us spin our tires in the mud. I far prefer going for a series of less expensive guys with upside than a guy on the backside of his career. To be clear, I am predicting Mavs thinking, not what I would necessarily recommend. However, if Ball and Collins are not available, and we don't want one of the old point guards, and we are not trading KP, what is the move? I don't see LA letting THT go without extreme overpay, and I don't think Holmes makes sense with KP (neither are a 4 on defense). Ball would be my first choice, and I am for trading KP if we can do something reasonable, but a Conley/Batum offseason (or something similar) would not be the end of the world. That would be a much better team, and the contract would be at most 3 years. I would greatly prefer that to running it back with a JRich trade and an MLE pickup. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - cow - 07-02-2021 (07-02-2021, 09:04 PM)mvossman Wrote: To be clear, I am predicting Mavs thinking, not what I would necessarily recommend. However, if Ball and Collins are not available, and we don't want one of the old point guards, and we are not trading KP, what is the move? I don't see LA letting THT go without extreme overpay, and I don't think Holmes makes sense with KP (neither are a 4 on defense). I doubt Collins is going to be available. You could probably overpay Ball but if New York matches, my guess is that he would go there. And I love Ball. I had him on my reclamation project which he screwed up by playing so well this year. Why is Conley going to leave Utah though? He'll get paid there and have a chance at a championship. For the money I'd offer Batum, he'd just stay a Clipper. I like THT and all but I'm not saying that's who we should get, but rather the type of player we should be looking to get. Someone with upside, someone that can become an asset that is more than an expiring contract. Of the old guys that are realistically obtainable, DeRozan is probably my favorite. Actually, Dwight Howard is my favorite as you could get him at a budget price if you give him a few years and that would be a quality rotational center. This offseason is a success if they can trade KP and get reasonable value back. We aren't going to win a championship next year and the team might need to take a step backwards to move forward. I like the idea of working with the Kings. They probably want to keep Holmes but want to keep some cap space. Maybe there is a "well scratch your back if you scratch ours deal that could be made. Can we figure out a way for another reclamation project in Bagley. Is Buddy finally available? And talking about taking a step backwards, I think talking to New York about Jalen makes a lot of sense. Can we reclaim our 2023 1st? Maybe they'd be interested in a Robinson swap. There are a ton of options out there. I just want a little bit of a youth movement. Let's add the veteran when that foundation has hardened a bit. Hard to predict what the Mavs will do since the MBT is mostly new now. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - mvossman - 07-02-2021 (07-02-2021, 09:18 PM)cow Wrote: I doubt Collins is going to be available. You could probably overpay Ball but if New York matches, my guess is that he would go there. And I love Ball. I had him on my reclamation project which he screwed up by playing so well this year. A couple of thoughts: Utah is a small market team close to the tax line. They might not have the stomach for another Conley contract. I am not advocating for money wiping Conley. Its good that DeRozan is your favorite, because I think he is the most likely. Kings can't keep Holmes and they can't S&T him because they don't have bird rights. Same for Clippers with Batum. They don't have bird rights so they can't pay him more than 3 mil and they are way over cap. I feel like any thoughts around young projects like Bagely or Robinson is just not going to happen. They are in win now and it seems like the new regime was brought in at least partially to be able to land big free agents the prior regime couldn't. The Brunson trade may happen because it opens up possibilities for a big trade. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - cow - 07-02-2021 (07-02-2021, 09:31 PM)mvossman Wrote: Kings can't keep Holmes and they can't S&T him because they don't have bird rights. If we help them with cap space, they can keep Holmes. That was my point, not S&T. For Utah, keeping Conley means keeping Mitchell happy long term, so I think they'll pay the piper. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Branduil - 07-02-2021 Look at all the "stars" in the league- Lebron/AD, Kawhi, Luka, Jokic, Dame, KD/Harden/KI, Embiid, Butler, etc. All guys who are sitting at home right now. There's no question that stars are good and necessary to have, and there's no question the Mavs need to improve their talent level significantly, but the idea that we can only win by signing Sammy Superstar seems a bit off. There are guys like Collins out there who might become stars, and if not, they are already very good, young players. Also the vast majority of superstar acquisitions come from trades... in order to make trades, you need good players already. So yes, pursue Plan Powder, but... the powder needs to be good players. Cap space has extremely limited value. Teams will always prefer getting good players. If you can get a superstar to agree on a deal before free agency, great, but if not... go get good players. Get them now. Fill this team with talent. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - F Gump - 07-03-2021 (07-02-2021, 11:08 PM)Branduil Wrote: Cap space has extremely limited value. Teams will always prefer getting good players. Very true. Great point (although, to be nitpicky, "almost always" is probably more accurate, as sometimes teams do become desperate for space; but we lose sight of that, since we've never seen Mavs having sales skills to "sell" their cap space to desperate teams, like other teams do.) One disclaimer also needs to be included -- "good players" gets defined relative not only by the ability to play, but also by the contract that's attached. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - KillerLeft - 07-03-2021 (07-02-2021, 11:08 PM)Branduil Wrote: Fill this team with talent. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Branduil - 07-03-2021 In terms of smaller "non-star" moves, what do you think about Brunson+JRich for THT? I could see the Lakers really coveting Brunson given how Schroeder ended up, and they have very limited ways to improve themselves, so I could see them jumping on that deal. For the Mavs it works if you think THT could grow into a secondary creator role. You could stay above the cap and still have the the MLE+BAE to work with. I think with THT you can move THJ to the starting lineup and focus on bolstering the bench with the exceptions- someone like Dragic, plus a BAE forward. Luka / Dragic / Terry THT / Green / Burke THJ / DFS Maxi / ??? / Bey KP / WCS / Powell RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - F Gump - 07-03-2021 (07-03-2021, 01:00 AM)Branduil Wrote: In terms of smaller "non-star" moves, what do you think about Brunson+JRich for THT? What you have to pay THT is the key to answering that. That contract certainly impacts the value in having him, but it also will determine whether you can sign and trade for him. I am one who isn't overly impressed, at least not compared to many in this forum, so I'm not a good judge of what the Mavs should want to pay, but in a sign-and-trade his salary can't surpass Early Bird limits (about 10.5M). So if you think he will be getting more than that to start, he's not available via SNT, which makes the whole question moot. If he's available for less, then is it a number that could be a bargain? That would determine whether you'd want to give up assets to land him, and if so how much. LA has a whole lot of mouths to feed in free agency, and it should be interesting to see who they pay, how much, and where they decide to use their exception(s). Apart from trades, their paths to adding player upgrades are really limited, and perhaps almost non-existent. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Branduil - 07-03-2021 Yeah good point about the max salary for a S&T, I'm not super-high on THT either but he's certainly young and has potential as a secondary playmaker, I think heavily dependent on his ability to learn to shoot. I think Collins is still #1 on my free agent wishlist, every available playmaker is either older or unproven. Certainly there are guys I like for the right price- Reggie Jackson, Conley, Dragic, and Lowry. The key is going to be getting both a playmaker and a PF/C upgrade with our limited resources. If we can get one of the playmakers AND one of Collins or Holmes, then I'll be satisfied. And if we can pick up similar-quality players in a trade, i.e. guys like Brogdon as a playmaker, or Turner as a big, I would also accept those. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - cow - 07-03-2021 THT is an upside play. He handles well, has shown playmaking and defensive flashes, and uses his big frame to absorb contact and finish around the rim. I think he'll easily eclipse what he'd garner in a S&T. I don't think he popped as much as some were expecting in his sophomore campaign. I used to think it would take 15+ a year to pry him from the Lakers, but I'm starting to think that number might be in the 12-13 range. Still a hefty price tag for someone you are betting will develop. He's still only 20. 6'4" with a 7'1" wingspan. If I were a GM of a rebuilding team with a ton of cap space, I'd just offer him the max (4/83). If the Lakers match, I did the league a solid by hamstringing their future flexibility. If they don't and he becomes what I think he'll become, that's a bargain and a lot of instilled good will. If he doesn't hit, I'm rebuilding anyway and need to spend the money. I actually wouldn't be surprised if this happens. He's already in the lab working on his shot. https://www.silverscreenandroll.com/2021/7/2/22560895/talen-horton-tucker-working-on-jumper-with-lethal-shooter-video-lakers-free-agency RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - ClutchDirk - 07-03-2021 https://nypost.com/2021/07/02/inside-76ers-star-ben-simmons-new-17-5m-la-house/ RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - DanSchwartzgan - 07-03-2021 (07-03-2021, 03:28 AM)cow Wrote: THT is an upside play. He handles well, has shown playmaking and defensive flashes, and uses his big frame to absorb contact and finish around the rim. I think he'll easily eclipse what he'd garner in a S&T. I don't think he popped as much as some were expecting in his sophomore campaign. I used to think it would take 15+ a year to pry him from the Lakers, but I'm starting to think that number might be in the 12-13 range. Still a hefty price tag for someone you are betting will develop. He's still only 20. 6'4" with a 7'1" wingspan. A few interesting data points since we last had a THT day around here. 1. If you believe FG that JRich will opt in and Dallas will retain Willie, then we have almost the exact amount of cap room left to max out Talen. If that is how it goes down, we are essentially swapping THJ for THT. We often hear how easy it would be to dump this contract or that by paying a second or some such, but none of us really know that for sure. One thing about the threat to sign THT to a $20mm offer is you might be able to talk LA into taking back JRich rather than matching the offer. My first reaction to that is why would they do that when they wouldn't include THT in a Lowry deal. Of course, they didn't have an $80 million gun to their head and both of their stars were healthy at the time. How about JRich and JB and you pay THT something more in the range of the $12mm-$13mm you mentioned? JRich and Willie? LA has Drummond as a FA and Harrell with a PO. 2. Paying him even at the MLE level is a projection and Dallas would have been completely reliant on their pro-scouting department. Not any more. We now have a head coach who knows him well. 3. We are on record as prioritizing a "shot creator", which we interpret as someone who can get shots for themselves and others. DeRozan and Dinwiddie are probably the best direct comparisons here since neither is a 3 point threat. THT gets 5 assists per 36 and is unassisted on 65% of his two point attempts. He's .522 on two pointers and .639 within 3 feet. DDR gets 7.4 assists per 36 and is unassisted on 75% of his two point attempts. He's .515 on two pointers and .636 within 3 feet. SD gets 7.8 assists per 36 (19-20) and is unassisted on 83% of his two point attempts. He's .485 on twos and .636 within 3 feet. Of course, THT is already a much better and more versatile perimeter defender than either of those guys. His outside shot is a work in progress whereas it is pretty firmly established with the other two. And, of course, there is the age thing. There are also things working against this. If he doesn't develop an outside shot, is this just another Wright/JRich swing with better force both defensively and at the rim? If you do go the offer sheet route, you've bet your entire summer on this one thing. What is Plan B if LA matches? You are dealing with Rich Paul here. Why would he help the Mav's to the detriment of the King? I'm still with Cow conceptually, but if I'm doing this, I want it to be a trade as soon as free agency opens. But, therein lies another issue. If this is a trade, then it opens the door to 28 other teams, some of whom can come up with a better packages. I see the upside and the fit on the court. Making this work as a transaction is more problematic. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - ThisIStheYear - 07-03-2021 Forget the older star in name only guys. Take a run at Kawhi, Collins, or maybe THT if you believe in him. Otherwise, just look for a value play or two. It’s kind of the same strategy as always but maybe the new team has the wherewithal to make it work. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - F Gump - 07-03-2021 (07-03-2021, 08:48 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: One thing about the threat to sign THT to a $20mm offer is you might be able to talk LA into taking back JRich rather than matching the offer. This is not doable. Depending on the particulars you have in mind, it either violates signing rules, cap rules, Arenas rules, or trade rules, but in any event it's not an option. If you want to offer him any deal bigger than the Early Bird limits, you have to clear cap room, sign him to an offer sheet, and hope for the best. The max EB would be about 4 yrs 45M. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - DanSchwartzgan - 07-03-2021 (07-03-2021, 09:43 AM)F Gump Wrote: This is not doable. Depending on the particulars you have in mind, it either violates signing rules, cap rules, Arenas rules, or trade rules, but in any event it's not an option. Thanks. Then for me, I'm out unless I absolutely know LAL won't match. Below is from Laker's Mailbag with the LAL beat writer at The Athletic: What is THT’s role next year if they can bring him back? And do they look to (replicate) the 19-20 season by having bigger guards across the board, as opposed to starting Dennis, who is smaller? — @eeezup If the Lakers re-sign Horton-Tucker, it will likely be for a larger role, as that probably means Schröder, Caruso and/or Matthews aren’t returning. Horton-Tucker should garner a multi-year contract offer in the non-taxpayer midlevel range ($9-10 million), meaning that if the Lakers are to retain him in that neighborhood, they’re elevating him to a rotation fixture. There’s a chance he’s ready to be a seventh or eighth guy consistently next season. He just has to improve his defense and 3-point shooting. With regards to your second question, it entirely depends on what happens with Schröder. If he’s back, he’s going to start. If he walks, the Lakers will likely sign a veteran’s minimum point guard, with Caruso or Horton-Tucker potentially making more sense as a non-traditional starting point guard. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Chicagojk - 07-03-2021 (07-02-2021, 04:48 PM)Mavs2021 Wrote: I want PG/SG Jaden Springer out of this draft. I haven't gotten to Springer yet, but he looks to be this years Kira Lewis. Lewis was a sophmore last year but extremely young. Springer is 18 (turns 19 in september), so if he has good workouts I can see him rising up due to his age. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Chicagojk - 07-03-2021 As a low cost option, I am intrigued by Mo Wagner. Only still 24. He has bounced around a little and our roster as is, there may not be a place for him. but I want a big guy who does something different than what we already have. Mo is a little awkward and just bangs into people. He could be an intriguing low cost option to explore. He doesn't really provide shot blocking threat, but could he be a low cost rotation player to provide some physical play/hustle. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xR--Yd1q76w https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9Dck6M1xp8 RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Mavs2021 - 07-03-2021 Oh damn Sexton is still on his rookie contract next year. Well sign me the f*** up. I´d take Sexton + Nance Jr. + Prince for Porzingis.... or the greedy version Sexton + Allen for Porzingis. George Hill + 28th pick for Kleber. Buy out Hill. Gosh that would fix so many of our problems. Markkanen 17.0 THJ 15.0 Prince 13.0 Richardson 11.6 Powell 11.1 Doncic 10.2 Nance 10.7 Sexton 6.4 WCS 4.3 DFS 4.0 Burke 3.2 Green 3.0 Brunson 1.8 Terry 1.5 Brown 1.4 Hill 1.2 (dead money) Rotation Doncic/Sexton/Terry THJ/Richardson/Burke DFS/Prince/Green Markkanen/Powell/Room MLE Nance Jr./WCS/Brown RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - cow - 07-03-2021 JRich opting in is an interesting scenario. One thing I really hated about Carlisle is how he managed players minutes. Some guys just aren't going to do well without a predictable routine and Carlisle was the epitome of erratic. (07-03-2021, 08:48 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: There are also things working against this. If he doesn't develop an outside shot, is this just another Wright/JRich swing with better force both defensively and at the rim? If you do go the offer sheet route, you've bet your entire summer on this one thing. What is Plan B if LA matches? You are dealing with Rich Paul here. Why would he help the Mav's to the detriment of the King? I'm still with Cow conceptually, but if I'm doing this, I want it to be a trade as soon as free agency opens. But, therein lies another issue. If this is a trade, then it opens the door to 28 other teams, some of whom can come up with a better packages. I see the upside and the fit on the court. Making this work as a transaction is more problematic. If I were Dallas, I wouldn't give him the max. It is just too risky and the team is too asset poor to course correct. If I were say Orlando? Sure, why not? |