2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived - Printable Version +- MavsBoard (https://www.mavsboard.com) +-- Forum: Boards (https://www.mavsboard.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=1) +--- Forum: Dallas Mavericks and the NBA (https://www.mavsboard.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=2) +--- Thread: 2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived (/showthread.php?tid=682) Pages:
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RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - F Gump - 05-14-2021 (05-14-2021, 04:21 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: Last year [Dinwiddie's] numbers were pretty good. I like the scoring obv, plus assists and FTA's. I think that would help off the bench. I don't disagree he has flaws but I still think he fits the "playmaker" role Mavs need in some capacity. If I were a betting man I would put Dragic as more likely. Dragic obv is buds with Luka, toolsy offensively and was clutch in the playoffs last year. I also don't think he will cost too much given his age and injury history. You are being dismissive of "flaws" that are massive, and that make him completely undesirable on this roster. 1 He is an AWFUL defender. Simply horrendous. The various ratings all say he's a definite negative, and the eye test (reputation) does the same. 2 He cannot shoot. AT ALL. In 2019-20 (since he missed almost the entirety of this season), 41% from the field overall, 29% on 3s, corner 3s 13%. Beyond 3 feet? Everywhere was 35% or less. The guy just can't shoot, and the only reason he put up numbers is because he was playing on a mediocre team and made himself a "volume scorer" - usage almost 30%. He did have good assist numbers, but that's the inevitable consequence of having the ball ALL THE TIME. Will the Mavs be taking the ball out of Luka's hands? No. So ... We would HATE him with his constant bricks and no defense. I can't imagine the Mavs will have even the slightest interest, because he doesn't bring anything they need on either end of the floor. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - IamDougieFresh - 05-14-2021 (05-14-2021, 05:52 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: You just sounded so confident, what happened? When you are on the internet you want to use the world "will" instead of "might" because it's much more fun. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - embellisher - 05-14-2021 (05-14-2021, 04:45 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: So I like this idea a lot. I didn't realize Smart's stock was so low. This as certainly as low as its ever been. I like that Mavs have J Rich as a potential role/matching piece. Ainge will want to win the trade. No way you're getting Smart for Rich straight up. I think Ainge would ask for Rich and Brunson. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - F Gump - 05-14-2021 (05-14-2021, 09:19 PM)embellisher Wrote: Ainge will want to win the trade. No way you're getting Smart for Rich straight up. I think Ainge would ask for Rich and Brunson. That would be a ridiculous ask, and an easy no. Brunson is very unlikely to be traded at all - for the Mavs to even consider it, the other team probably has to have an under-30, healthy, current all-star level player on the table. Smart isn't even close. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Branduil - 05-14-2021 Luka+THJ+KP is not a winning trio on defense. Unless I see something dramatically different in the playoffs, I think the Mavs need to trade KP and make THJ the 6th man. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Jason Terry - 05-14-2021 (05-14-2021, 09:44 PM)Branduil Wrote: Luka+THJ+KP is not a winning trio on defense. Unless I see something dramatically different in the playoffs, I think the Mavs need to trade KP and make THJ the 6th man.I don’t get it. Let’s stack all our offensive players on the starting unit and not worry about defense? Its a classic if it ain’t broke don’t fix it. We may have just screwed up our mojo with this foolish roster mixup by rick. THj is not a starter. He is an elite bench scorer that plays no defense. Everything was working just fine before Luka + KP + THJ = defensive failure 57 points to the Toronto scrub backcourt and new orleans got whatever they wanted first quarter too Can’t have it and can’t bring in someone else that’s one dimensional either(unless we need to re-learn this lesson yet again) RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Branduil - 05-14-2021 Still fully on team Trade KP unless he shows another defensive gear in the playoffs. He is playing zero D right now. Trade KP for a two-way playmaker, sign Holmes, make THJ the 6th man. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Kammrath - 05-14-2021 (05-14-2021, 10:32 PM)Branduil Wrote: Still fully on team Trade KP For sure. Team Trade KP is not flaky and based on short term trends. Team Trade KP is looking at the big picture. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - F Gump - 05-14-2021 (05-14-2021, 10:34 PM)Kammrath Wrote: For sure. That's the idea. All outcomes mean "Trade KP." Who cares if KP plays well and makes the team better - gotta push to trade him anyhow! Amirite? RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Kammrath - 05-14-2021 (05-14-2021, 10:49 PM)F Gump Wrote: That's the idea. All outcomes mean "Trade KP." Who cares if KP plays well and makes the team better - gotta push to trade him anyhow! Amirite? RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Branduil - 05-14-2021 I just want to figure out a way to trade KP for Brogdon and then add Holmes while keeping THJ as 6th man. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Scott41theMavs - 05-14-2021 (05-14-2021, 10:55 PM)Branduil Wrote: I just want to figure out a way to trade KP for Brogdon and then add Holmes while keeping THJ as 6th man. I would absolutely love that. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Branduil - 05-14-2021 https://tradenba.com/trades/rVQbkDBjt Hornets part could be done as a separate trade after the fact. Re-sign THJ and sign Holmes Luka / Brunson Brogdon / THJ DFS / Green Bridges / Maxi Holmes / Powell RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - embellisher - 05-15-2021 (05-14-2021, 09:33 PM)F Gump Wrote: That would be a ridiculous ask, and an easy no. Brunson is very unlikely to be traded at all - for the Mavs to even consider it, the other team probably has to have an under-30, healthy, current all-star level player on the table. Smart isn't even close. Oh, I know the Mavs would say no. But I can guarantee you if you called Ainge and tried to offer Rich for Smart, he would either ask for a first round pick or Brunson as well. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - DanSchwartzgan - 05-15-2021 (05-14-2021, 12:15 PM)mvossman Wrote: Ha! The tables are turned as you are warning me about context regarding lineup data (something I think I have done to you in the past). And your right, the data is limited with THJ and the starters and what I did provide was not a very big sample (its hard to get any decent sample this year with injuries and the Covid stuff). I know...good times, right? I like your line about considering Homes "even with the inefficient use of resources". Such a move is probably predicated on the idea that KP is your PF sharing the position with Maxi and five-out is more of a gimmick lineup than the main thing. In reality, KP is the PF on O and the C on D in such a lineup and you'd hide him on the weakest offensive threat in the other team's front court. Holmes and presumably Powell (against backups) have to be good enough at perimeter and team D to make this work. The alternative is to find a Maxi clone or larger version of DFS and keep KP at center. That has proven more difficult. It is much easier to come up with good D rim runners than 3 and D PF's. So, let's say you lock in Holmes/DP and KP/Maxi at C/PF and assume they bring in a 5th big using some other resource. It requires going under the cap as there won't be a S&T for Holmes over the cap. In other words, one of JRich or THJ is gone. So, yesterday, we explored a world without JRich. Some (many) don't like using his space for a Center. If you do, you are probably starting either THJ or Green or some guy you got for the rMLE at the off guard spot. Not ideal. You can do the same exercise with the assumption JRich stays at his opt-in price and THJ goes. Now you have $23mm to work with. But if you use most of that on Holmes (say $14mm), you are starting JRich, Green or some guy you got for the equivalent to the full MLE...about $9mm. Not super inspiring. That takes us back to moving on from both guys. Graham came up yesterday, so I want to think through a Holmes/Graham summer for a moment. I'm not sure Charlotte needs four high priced guards in Rozier, Graham, Monk and Ball. If Monk gets MLE money and Graham gets into the teens, I think that is worse than paying Maxi $8mm to be our fourth big. There is probably some price at which Charlotte says uncle and doesn't match. They can run Ball/Rozier/Monk as their 3 guard rotation. BTW, is cost controlled Willie better for a year than bringing back Bismark on a multi-year?. Some pros/cons on Graham. 1. I think his playmaking and 3 point shooting would unlock KP's O at PF. The rim runner gets most of the action with Luka and the bulk of KP's opportunity when the starters are in come from secondary action with JRich or THJ. Put Graham in that spot and the O is simply unstoppable. The team can flip a switch from Luka/Holmes action to Graham/KP action and 39% DFS is standing in the corner. Who do you leave? 2. Replacing JRich and THJ with just Graham provides a good bench role for Green next year (probably as the DFS backup as a wing-defender). You'd have two of your creators (Luka, Brunson and Graham) on the floor at all times with one of your wing defenders, one of your rim runners and either KP or Maxi. Super consistent and easy to mix/match. 3. Is Graham really a good defender? I see what the on/off and RPM numbers show. Charlotte's D is good when Graham is in. But the other PG's influence that and the D is bad when Rozier or Ball play PG. Do lineups work with Graham because he's good at D or because he isn't Rozier or Ball? If you dig into the lineup data with Charlotte, something odd is happening. Graham or Monk lineups kill it and Ball or Rozier lineups get killed. If you look at other defensive measures, Graham's D is less compelling. He's average at the various acronym defensive measures (LEBRON, RAPTOR ect.). BBIndex shows that Charlotte asks a lot of Graham in terms of the matchups they stick him with. I just don't know. The obvious worry is playing him and Brunson together in a 3 guard rotation when Luka sits. 4. Graham and Brunson are both represented by CAA. Agents don't typically place a client on a new team at the same position as another client...especially a year before their contract is up. It is a good way to get fired by Brunson. Graham would pinch Brunson's opportunities. Seeing Brunson in the closing lineup would be a thing of the past. I'm not saying it can't happen, but you'd have to have a good understanding with Jalen of what he can expect in a year and it would probably need to be sixth man of the year type money. Holmes/Graham would be a good summer in my book. Graham is 3.86 in RPM and he'd be replacing minutes currently going to JRich -0.83 or THJ 0.16. That is huge. Holmes is 0.98 at RPM, but 2.26 at D-RPM. Willie, Boban and Powell are all negative at RPM (though I suspect post all-star Powell is doing fine. He was a positive in 19/20 and 18/19 at 0.53 and 0.65. I think you'd want to keep Melli (or someone like him) for when KP sits. If you could get Charlotte to take back Willie and Terry or Willie and Burke in a S&T for Graham and sign Holmes with cap room, you might have north of the rMLE to offer a 5th big (Theis) instead of keeping Melli. Holmes/DP/Theis KP/Maxi/Theis DFS/Green Graham/Brunson Luka/Brunson RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - dirkfansince1998 - 05-15-2021 Talking about THJ. He obviously has to make the most out of his next contract but is there a chance that the Mavs and THJ can work out a Dirk like agreement. Sign a smaller contract this summer (1/11m). Followed by a big payday in 2022 (2/40). Next summer the Mavs are over the cap anyway and if they want to keep the crew together most likely paying luxury tax (DFS, Brunson). Obviously requires a lot of trust on both sides but I do think that THJ would like to stay in Dallas. Also think that the MBT values him. Not only for his on court production but also as a team leader and chemistry guy. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - DanSchwartzgan - 05-15-2021 (05-15-2021, 09:44 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: Talking about THJ. He obviously has to make the most out of his next contract but is there a chance that the Mavs and THJ can work out a Dirk like agreement. Sign a smaller contract this summer (1/11m). Followed by a big payday in 2022 (2/40). Next summer the Mavs are over the cap anyway and if they want to keep the crew together most likely paying luxury tax (DFS, Brunson). I like the thinking here. I've said I think the range is $14mm to $18mm. But that is theoretical. Who out there is going to use cap space on him. That leaves him at the MLE if we don't sign/sign-and-trade him. I like your numbers as it is basically the same as 3 x $17. I'm guessing you'd give him a PO for a second year to guarantee him $22.9-ish? Here's my question. You are leaving yourself $23mm for who. A bunch of the guys you would put here would push THJ to the bench. For instance, say Lowry agreed to $23mm (same agent as THJ). That works for the Mav's and for Lowry. Does it help THJ? He's still coming off the bench and betting about $7 million (spread between 2/$22.9 and 3/$29.5 MLE elsewhere) that a year from now Dallas will keep its wink-wink deal. Also, will the league put up with that big of a circumvention. Dirk can take as little as he wants and could justify a max the next year. Is there any world in which you can justify $20mm per for THJ as a bench player a year from now? RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Branduil - 05-15-2021 I do wonder about Myles Turner... he seems like he'd be a natural rim-runner, but for some reason he takes a ton of jump shots and threes despite being bad at them. His at-the-rim percentages are good though... if we could just get him to be a rim-runner instead of a jump-shooter, trading KP for Brogdon and Turner would solve a ton of problems. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - dirkfansince1998 - 05-15-2021 (05-15-2021, 10:06 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I like the thinking here. I've said I think the range is $14mm to $18mm. But that is theoretical. Who out there is going to use cap space on him. That leaves him at the MLE if we don't sign/sign-and-trade him. I like your numbers as it is basically the same as 3 x $17. I'm guessing you'd give him a PO for a second year to guarantee him $22.9-ish? Good question and it really depends on Richardsons and KPs future. I think 23m isn´t enough to enter the Collins conversation (not to mention that I don´t like the fit next to KP). You already mentioned the problem with another wing/guard. Players like Ball, Graham or Lowry would push THJ out of the starting five. I wouldn´t mind a split the money approach and target one wing/guard in the 12-15m (THT) and one big in the 5-10m range (Theis). In a no KP scenario all bets are off. With THJ on a cheap deal the Mavs could potentiall add three guys in the 20+ million range. One of them obviously in a trade. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Chicagojk - 05-15-2021 I am still in the mindset of increasing the talent of the team this offseason...even if fit is not perfect. The Nets should be around for a while, and they will throw guys who can score at you. I wouldn't mind going back to the more offense approach....therefore I am still in the Derozan camp. I also want to change how we play on offense a little. Can you keep both Derozan and Hardaway....that might be tough. I think I would be fine with Melli back next year too, but it will need to be a minimum-ish type deal. He is a good depth piece and coming back to dallas may be his best option. Dallas may not have space though. I would like to see how he would look on the team with a full offseason with the team. It is not always pretty, but he plays smart. I am fine that Green will not have a big impact in the playoffs...although I wished he would have gotten some minutes the last few games. But next year, he needs the opportunity to spread his wings a little. So you got to be careful not to cover up all the 2 and 3 minutes. |