2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived - Printable Version +- MavsBoard (https://www.mavsboard.com) +-- Forum: Boards (https://www.mavsboard.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=1) +--- Forum: Dallas Mavericks and the NBA (https://www.mavsboard.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=2) +--- Thread: 2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived (/showthread.php?tid=682) Pages:
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RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - michaeltex - 04-27-2021 (04-27-2021, 02:17 PM)F Gump Wrote: If that was as easy as simply snapping your fingers and doing it, that would be great, with one disclaimer below. No doubt. But the FA class looks more like "helpful role players" than "3rd star" this summer. If you keep Powell, then you at least have his salary for matching if/when the opportunity comes to trade for someone closer to the 3rd star classification. I keep thinking about all the in-season movement this year. Hardin, Westbrook, Holliday, Aaron Gordon, to name a few. There will be opportunities next year as well that DAL could take advantage of better than this season with tradeable assets rather than dry powder. Some of the KP trades would put DAL back to looking for the 2nd star all over again. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - mvossman - 04-27-2021 (04-27-2021, 01:37 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: I feel like Lowry is going to Miami, Ball will go to NY or maybe Charlotte to play with his brother? Schroder could go to NY or stay in LA. I don't see Mavs interested in Schroder. I don't think you are going to be able to get all three with our cap space. I think Graham is going to cost more than 10. He would be my preference over Dragic due to his defense. A Homes/Graham off season seems doable and a big win in my opinion. If we can't get any of the two-way guys, then Dragic would be a reasonable back-up plan. With the remaining money maybe you go after a McDermmot to replace THJ. A Holmes/Dragic/McDermmot would still be a successful off season, but my top priority would be to get a quality two-way SG that can do some play making. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - BasketballJones41 - 04-27-2021 What’s the boards consensus on Graham? Is he a good defender or no? If yes is he good enough to be a defensive tandem with DFS? RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - StepBackJay - 04-27-2021 (04-27-2021, 02:40 PM)mvossman Wrote: I don't think you are going to be able to get all three with our cap space. I think Graham is going to cost more than 10. He would be my preference over Dragic due to his defense. A Homes/Graham off season seems doable and a big win in my opinion. If we can't get any of the two-way guys, then Dragic would be a reasonable back-up plan. With the remaining money maybe you go after a McDermmot to replace THJ. A Holmes/Dragic/McDermmot would still be a successful off season, but my top priority would be to get a quality two-way SG that can do some play making. I could see a scenario where you can get all 3 of Dragic/Holmes/Graham. Or as you mentioned McDermott is another guy and fits well in the shooter role off the bench. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - StepBackJay - 04-27-2021 (04-27-2021, 02:17 PM)F Gump Wrote: If that was as easy as simply snapping your fingers and doing it, that would be great, with one disclaimer below. Ya so the names I picked were names I thought that were pretty viable. Holmes shouldn't have any real attachment to the Kings and will probably go to the biggest contract (looking at Woods as a comp). We know Mavs had interest in him at the deadline and the re-emergence of 2 bigs in Rick's system indicates maybe they would be open to offering him a deal. Graham, altho an RFA is probably available for the right price. Mavs would be the favorite for Dragic if Miami gets a big name. I would also rather keep Powell than WCS and Powell is already under contract anyway. I also would rather have a star, there just aren't many of them out there that are available. The one guy I like is DeRozan and his fit is questionable so Mavs may not go in that direction. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - DanSchwartzgan - 04-27-2021 (04-27-2021, 09:41 AM)mvossman Wrote: I did not see your prior post, but the main point of my argument is that because defense is so hard to capture in a stat, you need a very large sample size. I would not expect a defensive stat to do a very good job in the relatively small sample that we have this year (that's why I went over 3 years). I think you make some good contextual points. Teams weren’t shooting as well overall in the early season. But, Dallas was ranked 4th defensively in that environment and Powell, Maxi and WCS were all posting very similar D-Ratings (until KP came back). You can’t write off good individual numbers to league-wide poor shooting when the team was beating 83% of its peers who were benefiting from the same issue. Fast forward to March and April. Yeah, Maxi is struggling. But Powell is again thriving and outperforming the team as the team’s numbers improve. Is it small sample size noise, or a player who if finally healthy hustling his butt off. Or, is it something else. Whatever the reason, the data is the data. My assertion wasn’t that Powell is always the better defender. It was Powell is the better defender this year. Your use of 3 year data to prove DRPM’s superiority doesn’t mean much because 3 years ago Maxi was clearly the better defender...and it wasn’t close. This is confirmation bias. You seem to be a good stats person. I imagine you know the danger of trying to create a narrative to make the data conform to your view as much as anyone. It feels to me that you are doing just that to show your one data point is somehow better than the 8 or 9 that say something different (this year). BTW, half of those data points are just variants of RPM designed to fix issues other stat geeks have found (believe exist) with RPM. Interesting question regarding D-Raptor. In 18/19 DP-MK were 43rd/93rd percentile. In 19/20 it was 68th/74th. This season it is 93rd/74th. BBall Index has a player comparison functionality that is kind of cool, but I think you have to subscribe to at least some of their stuff. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Mavs2021 - 04-27-2021 (04-27-2021, 03:55 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I think you make some good contextual points. Teams weren’t shooting as well overall in the early season. But, Dallas was ranked 4th defensively in that environment and Powell, Maxi and WCS were all posting very similar D-Ratings (until KP came back). You can’t write off good individual numbers to league-wide poor shooting when the team was beating 83% of its peers who were benefiting from the same issue. That´s why message boards have fallen behind social media. They should have implemented a keyword-based ignore function rather than a user-based. That way I could just put all content on ignore that has the words Powell + D-Raptor, Net rating, advanced, DRPM, RPM, percentile in it. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - StepBackJay - 04-27-2021 (04-27-2021, 02:33 PM)michaeltex Wrote: No doubt. But the FA class looks more like "helpful role players" than "3rd star" this summer. I am with you on this. I don't doubt Mavs will try for a big move but they will probably see that isn't going to materialize. The next best thing is trying to add assets that help now and can be traded in the future. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - JamesConway - 04-27-2021 (04-27-2021, 04:29 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: I am with you on this. I don't doubt Mavs will try for a big move but they will probably see that isn't going to materialize. The next best thing is trying to add assets that help now and can be traded in the future.The problem though is: the Mavs have no interest in acquiring assets due to their win now approach. It’s a one way street for picks and draftees: you will exclusively see them leave/be traded away from Dallas. Carlisle has also done a marvelous job killing any value Bey/Green/Terry had. The Mavs approach to developing assets is among the worst in the league. Carlisle would literally prefer to go with Melli every single game instead of throwing Bey out there for even one possession of non garbage-time. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - StepBackJay - 04-27-2021 (04-27-2021, 04:51 PM)JamesConway Wrote: The problem though is: the Mavs have no interest in acquiring assets due to their win now approach. It’s a one way street for picks and draftees: you will exclusively see them leave/be traded away from Dallas. I think Bey/Green/Terry will get their shot at some point but I still would have rather Mavs traded those picks instead of drafting those players. I don't think acquiring assets is counter to a win-now approach. Mavs actually had more options in 2018 than they do this summer in terms of talent available and still ended up going with small moves of Curry and Wright. They didn't even use cap space that year. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - mvossman - 04-27-2021 (04-27-2021, 03:55 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I think you make some good contextual points. Teams weren’t shooting as well overall in the early season. But, Dallas was ranked 4th defensively in that environment and Powell, Maxi and WCS were all posting very similar D-Ratings (until KP came back). You can’t write off good individual numbers to league-wide poor shooting when the team was beating 83% of its peers who were benefiting from the same issue. To be honest, it's not so much that I picked a stat to fit my narrative. A couple of years ago I picked a stat that made the most sense conceptually and fit the eye test the best. A lot of these stats you are referencing were not even available when I did that analysis and I don't know how many of them I have access to now without a paywall. As part of that analysis, it became clear that you need a big sample size, particularly for defense and so I have generally made it a habit of looking at 2 or 3 year stretches. Generally a players defensive ability does not change significantly from year to year (with the occasional exception of an environment change triggering an increase/decrease in effort). So when I talk about Maxi vs DP defense, I am talking about what they have been for most of their careers and what I expect in the future. This season has been an outlier for Maxi. He has been crap for long stretches. I think (hope) that it is mostly due to Covid and potentially injuries. He had a history of injuries before he came here and I know he was on minutes restrictions up until this year. I wonder if the extra workload and condensed season has taken a toll on him such that it is greatly effecting he defensive performance. It may be that he needs to be kept in that low 20's minutes level he was at in prior years in order to be effective. So my argument has been that I expect Maxi to be a better defender than Powell in the future, possibly depending on reducing his workload down to his previous norm of low 20s. On that note (as this discussion has kind of lead me into the Maxi workload concern) I don't think we want Powell playing more than 20 minutes a game either. Combine that with KP playing roughly 30 minutes a game and likely missing a lot of games, there is a strong argument that we could use another rotational big, and possibly a starter. This ties back into the recent conversations on this thread regarding Holmes. I'm liking that idea more and more as I think about it, especially if we can get him in the 12 range (I'm expecting him to be at least 15). RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - StepBackJay - 04-27-2021 I think Holmes will get the Christian Wood deal or something close to that. Wood got 3/41. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - RedFlag41 - 04-27-2021 I think you will have to overpay to get Holmes away from the Sacramento Kings. I am guessing a range of 15M to 20M a year or a sign a trade with the Kings getting some sort of assetsin return. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - loki - 04-27-2021 (04-27-2021, 02:55 PM)BasketballJones41 Wrote: What’s the boards consensus on Graham? Is he a good defender or no? If yes is he good enough to be a defensive tandem with DFS? Some of the advanced stats seem to love him. I'm not sure if that's real or if Lamelo is just horrific by comparison. I watched most of the Boston-Charlotte game the other day and his team defense was solid, but man to man was not so impressive. They stuck him on Pritchard/Smart most of the game instead of Kemba. Hard to draw many conclusions from one game though. I suspect he's not going to be a plus defender, but if he can at least hold his own on that end (unlike THJ) and shoot + function as a secondary playmaker (unlike Richardson) the Mavs may still come out ahead. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - StepBackJay - 04-27-2021 (04-27-2021, 06:18 PM)RedFlag41 Wrote: I think you will have to overpay to get Holmes away from the Sacramento Kings. I am guessing a range of 15M to 20M a year or a sign a trade with the Kings getting some sort of assetsin return. Holmes is a UFA so all you have to do is say hey want to play for this Kings dumpster fire that was so smart they passed on Luka Doncic, or the team that did draft him and will be in the playoffs every year? I don't think you have to overpay necessarily to steal him away but there will be multiple suitors. I still think 3/41 or in that neighborhood is what he will get. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - jesusshuttlesworth82 - 04-27-2021 Hopefully we have $34 million (JRich opt out) to divide among two players and KP to trade for a third player. So the exact salary isn't really that important to me other than how you acquire 2 guys within that number. 1. Holmes at $16 + who else do you target with the remaining $18? 2. What kind of wing/guard can you trade KP for? Do we want CJ McCollum? Of course we discussed similar things A LOT two summers ago and we went and got freakin Delon Wright. I'm not getting emotionally involved again until something happens. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - RedFlag41 - 04-27-2021 You are probably correct. However, having multpile suitors will surely drive his price up. Sacramento Kings will be motivated to fight to keep Holmes or get something for him in return. They let Bogdanovic walk for nothing last summer. Letting Holmes walk for nothing this time around will not be a good looj for their GM. But I hope the Mavericks get him for a reasonable contract. If not, my second choice would be Theis who will be cheaper, I think. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - StepBackJay - 04-27-2021 (04-27-2021, 07:06 PM)jesusshuttlesworth82 Wrote: Of course we discussed similar things A LOT two summers ago and we went and got freakin Delon Wright. I'm not getting emotionally involved again until something happens. Lol ya I know right? But hey Mavs did get Seth Curry on a great contract that we just gave away for 1 year of J Rich so there's that. Holmes is a good target. I think Dragic is going to wind up here. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - SamStetz - 04-27-2021 (04-27-2021, 06:51 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: Holmes is a UFA so all you have to do is say hey want to play for this Kings dumpster fire that was so smart they passed on Luka Doncic, or the team that did draft him and will be in the playoffs every year? I don't think you have to overpay necessarily to steal him away but there will be multiple suitors. I still think 3/41 or in that neighborhood is what he will get.It actually might be a little easier than that. (This is all based on memory but I’m fairly confident it’s right) Sacramento only had early bird rights on him, so they can only pay him up to a certain annual number (I believe it’s around 12-13mil). Because they don’t have cap space, they have no way to pay him more unless they can create cap room to sign him. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - KillerLeft - 04-28-2021 (04-27-2021, 11:01 AM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: The biggest issue with building around KP (at least for me) is that you can really only place him in that defensive anchor role or he'll get pretty exposed out on the perimeter. The problem with that is that he's proven over the past two years that he has a lot of inefficiencies playing that role in our system. He's still a good help side rim protector but I feel like we have enough of a sample size to see that he just isn't mobile enough to handle his drop coverage responsibilities in the pick and roll. I look at Holmes as more of a KP replacement in a world where KP gets moved for backcourt/wing help somehow (Wiggins/Pick?). I feel strongly that you need a top 10 defense to win a championship in this league (the nets may become an exception to that rule but we'll see...) and also feel strongly that we'll always be an average to below average defensive team with KP as our anchor. Building a top 10 offense with Luka should not be that much of a struggle so I feel like if you have the opportunity to really turn the defense around you should do so. Welcome to the team, my guy! |