2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived - Printable Version +- MavsBoard (https://www.mavsboard.com) +-- Forum: Boards (https://www.mavsboard.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=1) +--- Forum: Dallas Mavericks and the NBA (https://www.mavsboard.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=2) +--- Thread: 2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived (/showthread.php?tid=682) Pages:
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RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - dirkfansince1998 - 04-26-2021 (04-26-2021, 06:58 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Great stuff. You make a good point. Two questions... 1. That´s a good question. We obviously cannot think of offense or defense as isolated/unrelated aspects of the game. We aren´t talking about football. In the end the right balance is the one that maximizes the chances to win a championship. If the KP/Powell duo gets the Mavs back to a league leading O-Rating with a slightly improved defense that´s a good option. 2. That´s the more difficult question. Turner is the dream case scenario but looking at recent Pacers rumors it seems like they would prefer to trade Sabonis. Holmes is another name that is getting mentioned on a daily base. The budget versions would be Theis or Boucher. If we are talking about a KP trade we can obviously inlcude names like Siakam or Collins. I would also consider a Warriors-like approach. Get one big body that can play 20-25 minutes per game. Play small ball when it matters most. It really depends on the potential return in a KP trade. Get a defensive upgrade in a KP trade. Use capspace to add scoring and playmaking. Get a playmaker/scorer in a KP trade. Use capspace to add a versatile front court player. In the end it is not about offense or defense. Teams need both to win it all but I think if KP still has some trade value the easiest part to a good two-way team is a trade. Upgrade the front court defense. Add more perimeter playmaking and shooting. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - DanSchwartzgan - 04-26-2021 (04-26-2021, 07:22 AM)Branduil Wrote: Chris Boucher would fit well in that slot, I think. Not sure what it would take to get him from Toronto. That is a good name. Toronto loves him. He was mentioned on a recent national podcast (can’t recall which one) as maybe the most underrated player/best value for his contract in the league. That 3% is a VERY recent change to his game and is probably illusory. He’s hitting .310 as a starter and after a super hot start is at .315 and .327 in March and April. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Kammrath - 04-26-2021 RE: NBA Champion Ratings Chart There are eight contenders this year... UTA (4th O, 2nd D, 1st Net) LAC (1st O, 11th D, 2nd Net) MIL (5th O, 8th D, 3rd Net) PHX (7th O, 5th D, 4th Net) DEN (3rd O, 16th D, 5th Net) BRK (2nd O, 24th D, 6th Net) PHI (15th O, 3rd D, 7th Net) LAL (21st O, 1st D, 8th Net) Probably 99% the NBA champ comes from that pool. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - mvossman - 04-26-2021 (04-26-2021, 06:53 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I agree with your point regarding D. It is certainly better than essentially saying "the seven defensive stats you gave us are flawed, but this one that I picked (the only one that shows Maxi as the better defender), it actually paints an accurate picture". I think it was more like one stat was provided with less than 500 minutes of sample (~20 games) and a counter stat was provided that includes more context and three years of sample. Lineup data is very enticing stat as its fun to slice up the data and make assessments based on it. But the reality is it has a ton of noise and limited sample size and there is a limit to what you can get from it. DRPM has more context but a similar amount of noise and needs a very large sample (multiple years) to get much out of it. The box score stats are almost completely useless. It is just very hard to capture NBA defensive ability in a stat. A case in point is the wild difference in perception on a given players defensive value. On another forum Maxi is considered the best defender on the team and Powell is considered a liability in that area. The thought there is that even before the injury Powell was best suited for 15-20 minutes destroying bench units offensively, but that his defense should keep him away from the starting lineup. To suggest Powell might be more effective than Maxi on the starting unit in a defensive capacity would be considered blasphemy there, as opposed to here where it seems to be generally accepted. I think the reality is somewhere in the middle, but it is fascinating how different these viewpoints are and I think it comes down to the fact that there is no quality metric to measure defense and such an assessment has to rely more on "scouting" than "analytics". RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - BasketballJones41 - 04-26-2021 (04-25-2021, 10:40 PM)Jason Terry Wrote: Got to overpay to get the agents on board and keep the team from matching. I’d do it to roll the dice on some young talentI think 4 for 60 is a very realistic and good deal for Markkanen. That’s what it cost the wizards to retain Bertans and I think Lauri is a much better player. At least he has the potential to be. And as you said I don’t believe the Bulls are very likely to match because they’re going to go chasing a PG upgrade starting with Lonzo and Schroeder. Just speculating but I’d also be willing to bet that we’re pretty high up on his list of preferred destinations so I don’t think getting him would be that hard. And you’re absolutely right about young talent. This is presumably our last summer in the Luka era with cap flexibility. We need to swing big at adding young talent that help us for the long-haul. Or at least be traded in the future for something that can. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Mavs03 - 04-26-2021 (04-26-2021, 11:02 AM)BasketballJones41 Wrote: I think 4 for 60 is a very realistic and good deal for Markkanen. That’s what it cost the wizards to retain Bertans and I think Lauri is a much better player. At least he has the potential to be. And as you said I don’t believe the Bulls are very likely to match because they’re going to go chasing a PG upgrade starting with Lonzo and Schroeder. Just speculating but I’d also be willing to bet that we’re pretty high up on his list of preferred destinations so I don’t think getting him would be that hard. And you’re absolutely right about young talent. This is presumably our last summer in the Luka era with cap flexibility. We need to swing big at adding young talent that help us for the long-haul. Or at least be traded in the future for something that can. Davis Bertans signed a 5 year 80 million contract. Not sure if Markkanen is worth that deal or 4 years 60 million. Would rather go another route personally. Markkanen is a below average defender. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - omahen - 04-26-2021 (04-26-2021, 11:02 AM)BasketballJones41 Wrote: I think 4 for 60 is a very realistic and good deal for Markkanen. That’s what it cost the wizards to retain Bertans and I think Lauri is a much better player. At least he has the potential to be. And as you said I don’t believe the Bulls are very likely to match because they’re going to go chasing a PG upgrade starting with Lonzo and Schroeder. Just speculating but I’d also be willing to bet that we’re pretty high up on his list of preferred destinations so I don’t think getting him would be that hard. And you’re absolutely right about young talent. This is presumably our last summer in the Luka era with cap flexibility. We need to swing big at adding young talent that help us for the long-haul. Or at least be traded in the future for something that can. I think Markkanen and Bulls are finished. However, they might still be pressured to match an offer if it would be low. So perhaps a minor compensation for not matching makes everyone happy and you don't need to wait 5 days for the results to come in. I would be affraid more competition would come from a third team. There might be someone who would see him as a longterm cornerstone and offer a contract accordingly. San Antonio is rumored here. Although I think SA would offer him no more than White and Murray got. Something in the up to 65 mil range. I am not sure New York, Charlotte or OKC would have him at the top of their lists. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - BasketballJones41 - 04-26-2021 (04-26-2021, 11:24 AM)Mavs03 Wrote: Davis Bertans signed a 5 year 80 million contract. Not sure if Markkanen is worth that deal or 4 years 60 million. Would rather go another route personally. Markkanen is a below average defender.My bad. I could’ve sworn it was 4 for 60. Each to their own but Collins an Markkanen are my top two. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - BasketballJones41 - 04-26-2021 (04-26-2021, 11:24 AM)omahen Wrote: I think Markkanen and Bulls are finished. However, they might still be pressured to match an offer if it would be low. So perhaps a minor compensation for not matching makes everyone happy and you don't need to wait 5 days for the results to come in. I would be affraid more competition would come from a third team. There might be someone who would see him as a longterm cornerstone and offer a contract accordingly. San Antonio is rumored here. Although I think SA would offer him no more than White and Murray got. Something in the up to 65 mil range. I am not sure New York, Charlotte or OKC would have him at the top of their lists.That’s kind of what I was thinking. Chicago isn’t going to keep him. I think they’d be perfectly happy to facilitate a sign and trade for some small asset. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - SleepingHero - 04-26-2021 (04-26-2021, 06:58 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Myles Turner? Who else? If we want to switch everything, who is that forward that does that well AND protects the rim? And, if we are going to start someone like Powell/WCS/Holmes at one big, doesn't the other one need to be able to hit 3's? I get that the idea of KP has been better than the reality of KP this season (especially defensively). But no one is going to give us a better version of KP in a trade for KP. Some bigs that I've been toying with but have their own issues are: Jaren Jackson Jr. (might even be more injury prone than KP and thats saying something) Pascal Siakam (TOR might not play ball and isn't a true star. The whole friction with coaches and can't reliably shoot a 3) Brandon Ingram (best of the bunch but I don't see NOP moving on from him) RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - ItsGoTime - 04-26-2021 That Markkanen defense has me out on him as a starter. As a bench scorer with an appropriate contract? Sure! I think we need to solidify the starters first though. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - StepBackJay - 04-26-2021 (04-26-2021, 11:24 AM)omahen Wrote: I think Markkanen and Bulls are finished. However, they might still be pressured to match an offer if it would be low. So perhaps a minor compensation for not matching makes everyone happy and you don't need to wait 5 days for the results to come in. I would be affraid more competition would come from a third team. There might be someone who would see him as a longterm cornerstone and offer a contract accordingly. San Antonio is rumored here. Although I think SA would offer him no more than White and Murray got. Something in the up to 65 mil range. I am not sure New York, Charlotte or OKC would have him at the top of their lists. Not really interested in Markkanen and I think Spurs will grab him as an LA replacement. They will probably turn him into a good player but not interested in him on the Mavs. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - StepBackJay - 04-26-2021 (04-26-2021, 08:46 AM)Kammrath Wrote: RE: NBA Champion Ratings Chart Time for Gobert to prove his worth as a top 10 player and bring a championship home to Utah. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - StepBackJay - 04-26-2021 (04-26-2021, 06:53 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Almost every NBA team uses a non 3 point shooting center in their rotation. In fact, on some teams that's all they have. Yet lesser offensive players than KP seem to be able to make it work at PF. I agree to an extent. Mavs might be better off with stretch shooter/defender at PF and switchable, rim-rolling 5. That would be a re-architecture of the starting lineup. The big thing the Mavs need whether or not KP stays is a playmaker at that SG spot. I think you can probably keep KP (warts and all) and upgrade that SG spot and be better overall. As much as we complain ab KP it's not like the Wizards are wearing the Mavs out with Beal for KP offers. My feeling is that Mavs need to hang onto KP unless/until they can an adequate return for his talent. This biggest thing the Mavs need is an upgrade at the SG spot, I can't understate that enough. I like the 3-headed KP, DP, Maxi rotation right now. I want to see how the Mavs finish the season with that frontcourt. The J Rich, THJ SG rotation is not good enough. THJ is an good but streaky shooter and an okay player. J Rich is a mess on offense and the Mavs defensive scheme does not take advantage of some of his skills. Mavs need a bigtime player at that SG spot of the Lowry, Conley, DeRozan-level quality. Dragic would also be an upgrade there. Dinwiddie is sort of a poor man's option at the right price. Lonzo would definitely qualify but he will have a lot of suitors. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - StepBackJay - 04-26-2021 One thing is that I believe the Nets have limited ways of improving their roster as they are already over the hard cap so to my knowledge they don't have much at their disposal in terms of adding guys. They could just resign Dinwiddie to keep him as an asset though I think he'd rather go elsewhere. I think he could be traded as an opt-in and trade situation. The Nets could get back a TE or a player in this scenario. This is better than Dinwiddie leaving for nothing. Mavs for example could do this and I guess retain some kind of bird rights on Dinwiddie. With Dinwiddie's injury situation I doubt he can get a bigger contract or multi-year deal. Mavs could take a 1 year flier on him in a buy-low situation then resign him over the cap the following year if he is a fit. This would also give them still plenty of cap space for another impact player or two. Dinwiddie has flaws plus injury concerns but he is able to score, make plays and get to the free throw line. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - mvossman - 04-26-2021 (04-26-2021, 02:58 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: I agree to an extent. Mavs might be better off with stretch shooter/defender at PF and switchable, rim-rolling 5. That would be a re-architecture of the starting lineup. The big thing the Mavs need whether or not KP stays is a playmaker at that SG spot. I agree with all of this with the exception of putting DeRozan in the same group as Lowry/Conley. He is not nearly as good as those players and regardless of your stance on his offensive fit, I think we need that upgraded SG to be a quality defender. I have similar reservations regarding Dinwiddle. I would be interested in Devonte Graham as an alternative to Ball as he might be easier to get (and potentially less headache). RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - Mavs2021 - 04-26-2021 (04-26-2021, 05:02 PM)mvossman Wrote: I agree with all of this with the exception of putting DeRozan in the same group as Lowry/Conley. He is not nearly as good as those players and regardless of your stance on his offensive fit, I think we need that upgraded SG to be a quality defender. I have similar reservations regarding Dinwiddle. Why? You should think he should be above them, cause he´s a legit #1 offensive option, while Lowry/Conley are more 3rd best offensive players? RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - StepBackJay - 04-26-2021 I am feeling like 90% sure that Lowry is going to the Heat which would free up Dragic. The Raptors team is underperforming, its hard to see how they get better with some big moves. For Lowry, the safer bet is joining a good Heat core that would figure to be a contender again with Lowry in the fold. Dragic would be a good fit next to Luka, and is of course a Schwartz client. I could see him getting a team-friendly 1+1 TO deal for maybe 10/yr. Dragic is also a player you can start or bring in to lead the second unit. Mavs would still have cap space for another impact player or two. J Rich could be used as a piece in an opt-in-and-trade. If Dragic is in the fold as your playmaker then you try to add some scoring and defense. Terrence Ross might be had for not too much. There are FAs out there to be had. You could try to just do some money-ball additions to round out the roster. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - StepBackJay - 04-26-2021 (04-26-2021, 05:02 PM)mvossman Wrote: I agree with all of this with the exception of putting DeRozan in the same group as Lowry/Conley. He is not nearly as good as those players and regardless of your stance on his offensive fit, I think we need that upgraded SG to be a quality defender. I have similar reservations regarding Dinwiddle. I think DeRozan is definitely on the same talent level, maybe not fit. I do wonder if both Mavs and DDR would feel like their pairing would be a fit. Devonte Graham is an interesting option who falls into the "if we get a good deal" category after Mavs initial star-hunting plans fall through. With my Dragic idea you could get both Graham and Dragic pretty easily within the Mavs projected cap space. RE: ROSTER TALK: DAL with $22.7M - $34.4M in capspace | FA starts Aug 2, 5 pm - mvossman - 04-26-2021 (04-26-2021, 05:05 PM)Mavs2021 Wrote: Why? You should think he should be above them, cause he´s a legit #1 offensive option, while Lowry/Conley are more 3rd best offensive players? If I want somebody taking the last shot, I would probably go with DeRozan. If I want somebody for the other 47 minutes of the game, it's Lowry/Conley and it is not close. It is amazing to me how poor any on/off related stat is for him for his entire career (that is over 10 years of sample). A lot of that is probably due to his terrible defense, but also due the fact that he takes a bunch of inefficient 2s (even if he is good at it). There probably is not a player in the league that has a bigger disparity between perceived value vs analytical on court value. |