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| Additional Info About Kammrath |
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| Why the Mavs are Potentially Much Better Already... |
08-05-2021, 09:11 PM |
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| Why the Mavs are Potentially Much Better Already... |
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Dallas Mavericks and the NBA
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| I think two charts might explain:
1) The priority for Nico this offseason.
2) Why there is hope that the Mavs are already much better even with seemingly little movement.
http://stlukeskck.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Screenshot-2021-08-05-8.35.17-PM.png
In this first chart you see that DAL was -0.2 in the 1760 minutes that Josh Richardson played this year. That would rank the Mavs 18th in the NBA in net rating. You also see that DAL was +6.1 in the 1671 minutes JR didn't play. That would rank the Mavs 2nd in the whole NBA, only behind UTA (and virtually tied with LAC). JR's -6.3 on/off was the worst on the Mavs last year, by far.
http://stlukeskck.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Screenshot-2021-08-05-8.34.41-PM.png
In this second chart you see how Luka and the Mavs were +7.6 when there was no JR on the court and then +0.3 when JR was with Luka on the court.
The Mavs were an ELITE level team, destroying their opponents when JR was not playing last year. When JR played the Mavs essentially performed like a non-playoff team. Also, Luka's impact on the game was massively better when JR was not with him on the court (the team was much better offensively AND defensively in that scenario).
It would not surprise me if Nico and the analytics team saw these kind of numbers and realized that the single biggest off season move needed to be upgrading JR. The fact of the matter is that all of their moves to this point (other than getting back their own players: WCS, THJ, Boban) were centered on this goal: upgrading JR. They traded JR for a TPE and then they went out and signed TWO replacement players: Reggie Bullock and Sterling Brown.
So are Reggie Bullock and Sterling Brown actual upgrades to JR? Well only time will tell, but the numbers are very promising.
Reggie Bullock was a go-to defender on one of the four elite defenses last year in NYK, often taking the hardest matchup on the court. The Knicks were 1.1 pts better defensively without Bullock, but when you take into account matchups with a stat like DRPM, he was +3.74 defensively (good for 7th best in the whole NBA...!). He also was elite in defending the perimeter, allowing only 30% shooting from outside from the guys he defended (JR allowed 40% shooting from outside). Bullock was also +1.4 offensively for the Knicks, shooting 41% from three (42.5% on catch and shoot). JR on the other hand shot 33% from three (32.5% on catch and shoot).
Sterling Brown also shows great promise on both ends in a more limited sample size. He shot 42.2% from three (41.4% on catch and shoot and an astonishing 46.9% on pull-up threes). The Rockets were also +4.0 defensively when Sterling played. Sterling is younger than Bullock and shows a lot of promise as an emerging 3&D player in this league.
I believe Nico went into this offseason with one goal that HAD to be accomplished above all others: address the team's biggest weakness last year by upgrading JR. I think Nico quickly accomplished that.
Is that enough? No. But it is a hell of a start. Fixing KP's impact is the next objective (whether through trade, scheme, coaching, mental therapy, etc) as well as getting Luka a better pick and roll partner (could that be KP with a new coach and scheme?) and a secondary ball-handler/creator (is Dragic the short term answer here?). I really like Nico's start as GM, even if it looks underwhelming on the surface. It may not be flashy, but it is getting to the core of what ailed this team last year. |
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